ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: It just came out, It tracks the low over kevins head due north over Mt Washington..........lol Lol. Nice. So those two models were the ones hammering the north ULL earlier and the euro and GFS caved to it. Wonder if they will cave again in another run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 58 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Gem is ugly for everyone, ull ends up over Lake Ontario. Atleast the gfs still has it over SNE I was actually comparing that 500 mb track to that guidance' ideas from four days ago, when/where it had position SE of ACK near the BM. It occurs to me to ask the question: has there been a 500 mb under LI since the early Dec event? I'm willing to wager the majority have sawed their way up there, up thru the ST L /NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol. Nice. So those two models were the ones hammering the north ULL earlier and the euro and GFS caved to it. Wonder if they will cave again in another run or two. The primary heading to the lakes is never a good sign for here and certainly not down to you, Going to have to wait on the Euro to see where its going here at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Most of these that have looked to have been cutters have trended flatter and this one seems to want to buck that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Most of these that have looked to have been cutters have trended flatter and this one seems to want to buck that trend. We lost the confluence to the north. That has been trending for a couple days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We lost the confluence to the north. That has been trending for a couple days now. Who let Scooter wipe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 It really doesn't help that this thing digs for oil so soon. That allows heights ahead to lift and we get the more northerly solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Euro is a bit south with the ULL through 54 hours. Let's see how it still tracks it over SYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 At least I won't spend two hours blogging tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Early thread jinxed everything again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro is a bit south with the ULL through 54 hours. Let's see how it still tracks it over SYR. But look at how much higher the heights are downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: But look at how much higher the heights are downstream. It's the confluence that's really gone away. I don't mind the digging for oil. The last run that was looking really good here was yesterday's 06z euro. It was probably a touch south of today's run but in looking north of Maine, that pressing shortwave is significantly weaker now. If we had the ULL tracking further north, all that would happen is it would pinwheel up into Toronto or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: Early thread jinxed everything again I should have waited a day... that would have fixed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 Maybe we can get a sunny warm day instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 This will be up the St. Lawrence seaway by the time Friday rolls around. Not another good model performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 ULL between Cleveland and Detroit at 84 hours lol. This was literally like southeast of philly 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Looks like the euros going full gem/uk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Rains to Maine’s lol. What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's the confluence that's really gone away. I don't mind the digging for oil. The last run that was looking really good here was yesterday's 06z euro. It was probably a touch south of today's run but in looking north of Maine, that pressing shortwave is significantly weaker now. If we had the ULL tracking further north, all that would happen is it would pinwheel up into Toronto or something. To me it was all about when it dove south. Had this done all this 150mi E, we'd all be buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Can we get some low-topped convection with this in CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rains to Maine’s lol. What a joke. This time you aren't exaggerating. It's rains right into Canada including all of NNE this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Mahoosuc Mauler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Congrats Gene and Mitch. Gloppy mess here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Pow pow at SR and Loaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Foothills, Mtns and Northern Maine will do well on this 12z Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Foothills, Mtns and Northern Maine will do well on this 12z Euro run. Maybe, even you are close to rain now. What a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: To me it was all about when it dove south. Had this done all this 150mi E, we'd all be buried. Yeah if it waited 150 miles to dive down t would have worked too...I'm just saying on previous runs, the ULL dove down in the same spot but it's where t tracked from thee that changed. 00z and 06z runs 30-36 hours ago had the ULL diving down into southern Missouri almost exactly where today's 12z run is...the problem is those runs then tracked it ENE across KY, WV, and eventually near philly and south of SNE. Today's run brings the low north-northeast through Southern Illinois and then Indiana and NW Ohio and into upstate NY. We lost the pseudo blocking mechanism that forced a more eastward track. A lot of that was probably due to the pressing arctic shortwave rounding the vortex near Greenland coming in weaker. There may have been some other nuances in Canada further west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This time you aren't exaggerating. It's rains right into Canada including all of NNE this run. All of NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Maybe, even you are close to rain now. What a disaster Oh i am, Went from one extreme to the other in 24 hrs, I have been skeptical all along on this for one reason or another, Still time for this to change some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 May as well wipe out the pack all the way into Quebec while we’re at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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