Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Thinking the warming/north trend is nearing an end ....Trend towards south/colder likely to begin shortly...How far? Not sure but some kind of middle ground of yesterday’s 0z/6z runs vs today’s 0z/6z runs seems like a good baseline, hedging in favor of colder/south vs warmer/north Why? Naked under the robe today? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: See Lighthouse if you want to observe brilliant acting and a chillingly disturbing movie... Funny thing is it’s been generally cold. That epo dump did the trick but now it goes. Cool, i'll check it out. Thought it was old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why? Naked under the robe today? Big picture. Trend in MJO and teleconnections all points towards a colder solution with better surface high in NB/QC and more confluence...Canada overall is warm, but thinking conditions are suitable to generate sufficient regional cold, given climo, snowpack, and the above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: What had to happen? Stronger confluence as we get closer? Stranger things have happened I guess if you really wanted to do that to yourself - There is another strong ULL out in the Pacific about halfway between HI and AK that ejects some energy into the CONUS after our main wave. We've had storms ruined at the last minute by a kicker shunting them east, it's always possible this follow-up wave comes in at a strength/orientation/timing that is more conductive to acting as a kicker. I wouldn't bet anything on it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Big picture. Trend in MJO and teleconnections all points towards a colder solution with better surface high in NB/QC and more confluence...Canada overall is warm, but thinking conditions are suitable to generate sufficient regional cold, given climo, snowpack, and the above... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I mean, maybe we can get this 200 miles NW and get some CAPE into the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: That's not Pope Benedict. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Should have added that I think the shortwave will trend back towards more digging.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, MetHerb said: That's not Pope Benedict. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Big picture. Trend in MJO and teleconnections all points towards a colder solution with better surface high in NB/QC and more confluence...Canada overall is warm, but thinking conditions are suitable to generate sufficient regional cold, given climo, snowpack, and the above... Don't models have a difficult time with handling confluence too? I remember some previous storms where confluence was a factor we saw last minute shifts south...and sometimes the south track resulted in suppression...thankfully this is a situation where we wouldn't have to worry about that so confluence may be our friend this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Things always tick east as we get closer. I wouldn't stick a fork in it just yet.....for me anyway. South of pike is toast I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Still a lot of time left on this one for more changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol...there you go. The Pope has spoken! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Don't models have a difficult time with handling confluence too? I remember some previous storms where confluence was a factor we saw last minute shifts south...and sometimes the south track resulted in suppression...thankfully this is a situation where we wouldn't have to worry about that so confluence may be our friend this time I’m unsure. But to me what’s important is Canada in general is torched but the only region showing negative Temp anomalies at 850 and surface is QC. Current guidance has that cold easily eroding but I don’t think that gets scoured so quickly/easily and instead we see a more pronounced CAD drain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Let’s see if we can super glue lipstick on this pig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 The vast majority of the over 6” hits on the Gefs are in NY /and Berks S VT (elevations) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I’m unsure. But to me what’s important is Canada in general is torched but the only region showing negative Temp anomalies at 850 and surface is QC. Current guidance has that cold easily eroding but I don’t think that gets scoured so quickly/easily and instead we see a more pronounced CAD drain... This is actually hinted at pretty well with the latest NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is actually hinted at pretty well with the latest NAM I don’t see that on 12z nam? i see temps steady or rising at 0z Sunday as low drifts N near NYC throughout all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I don’t see that on 12z nam? i see temps steady or rising at 0z Sunday as low drifts N near NYC 12z NAM has like +6 850 temps over SNE. Lol. Its by far the warmest aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I don’t see that on 12z nam? i see temps steady or rising at 0z Sunday as low drifts N near NYC throughout all of SNE northern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I would lean weaker more progressive and some elevation snows esp S VT and Monads over 1500’ that do well on E flow. Storm is weak on almost all guidance and airmass is crap. If it indeed trends weaker then the goal posts will be a narrow range of latitudes that get the best lift and totals. Your call for Monads out to Hunter would probably be on. I was really hoping to see the Whites buried b/c I have a few weekends planned up there in early Feb but MWV totals look meh'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Pina coladas anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is actually hinted at pretty well with the latest NAM 12z is still worse—warmer/further north, GFS likewise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 12z is still worse—warmer/further north, GFS likewise... Terrible for down this way...and into central New England. At least up north gets smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Solid warning here on this 12z GFS run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Solid warning here on this 12z GFS run. Looking better for the Whites also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 Pretty much all rain even here now on GFS... needle threader all along but I felt good about it until around yesterday afternoon. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Looking better for the Whites also? Similar...just noise there I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Looking better for the Whites also? This run looked good there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Solid warning here on this 12z GFS run. How does the ME coast look? Assuming we're tenuous at best in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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