ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Reminds me of that storm on March 7-8, 2018 when BTV tossed the euro and all the guidance immediately trended toward it after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Speaking from myself, it's really difficult to integrate the new ECMWF into an early morning forecast. The ECMWF comes out late, which means that you would have to wait to do your grids until the last minute, which often isn't reasonable. Here, we here need to issue a good chunk of our forecast by 330 AM local, the ECMWF starts coming out around 215-220 AM local. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 My guess it's b/c the euro has been a bit inconsistent with ULL track and how H5 and subsequent features evolve...the GFS has been a bit more consistent with the evolution/track of the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 6Z euro seems to be taking it up the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: My guess it's b/c the euro has been a bit inconsistent with ULL track and how H5 and subsequent features evolve...the GFS has been a bit more consistent with the evolution/track of the ULL The 00z Canadian and ECMWF both have the 500mb low over New England, it's the GFS, if anything that looks like a bit of an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 That Dec 3rd comparison tossed down toilet too now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: 6Z euro seems to be taking it up the Hudson. we've been taking it up somewhere this winter......I know that. At least NNE can pad the stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That Dec 3rd comparison tossed down toilet too now Yeah with the current trend....any analog with the ULL south of SNE is tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 How those 850 progs looking now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Anyway we avoid a major rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Well if you want to keep hope alive, the 06z EPS doesn't track the low over BDL like the 00z EPS did. Tracks it to scooters fanny instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, kdxken said: Anyway we avoid a major rain? Define major. GFS/Euro are less then 1" for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Well if you want to keep hope alive, the 06z EPS doesn't track the low over BDL like the 00z EPS did. Tracks it to scooters fanny instead. What had to happen? Stronger confluence as we get closer? Stranger things have happened 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well if you want to keep hope alive, the 06z EPS doesn't track the low over BDL like the 00z EPS did. Tracks it to scooters fanny instead. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane. It's what the snow starved here are hanging onto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane. Analog? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane. Did you see the movie Lighthouse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Did you see the movie Lighthouse? Negative. That's from Shawshank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: That Dec 3rd comparison tossed down toilet too now The whole thing from the beginning was a shot in the dark, period! The storm is POS. The whole season to date is a POS. Stupid to say, but I'm ready for spring(at least in SNE..keep NNE getting the goods so we can Sled) on Jan 22nd already. This reminds me totally of the 80's. This is how it always was...something looks half way decent from afar, but then goes to crap as it draws closer. Personally I have a bad feeling Feb doesn't really improve either. The Rat is Back unfortunately. Those who think Feb is going to improve...I'd be worried of another busted seasonal outlook? This season just aint got it in SNE. Hope I'm wrong, but it just has that taste. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well if you want to keep hope alive, the 06z EPS doesn't track the low over BDL like the 00z EPS did. Tracks it to scooters fanny instead. Good ...just bury somewhere within a 3 hour drive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What had to happen? Stronger confluence as we get closer? Stranger things have happened Are we in the bargaining stage soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Are we in the bargaining stage soon Step 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 What a melt! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 LR nammy maybe can channel Shawshank let’s see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: LR nammy maybe can channel Shawshank let’s see waiting for Tip to say told you all......hadley cell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I would lean weaker more progressive and some elevation snows esp S VT and Monads over 1500’ that do well on E flow. Storm is weak on almost all guidance and airmass is crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 32 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Negative. That's from Shawshank. See Lighthouse if you want to observe brilliant acting and a chillingly disturbing movie... Funny thing is it’s been generally cold. That epo dump did the trick but now it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: See Lighthouse if you want to observe brilliant acting and a chillingly disturbing movie... Funny thing is it’s been generally cold. That epo dump did the trick but now it goes. Yes, but that's the thing with Lousy winters, you just can't get the ingredients to all come together; and this season can't seem to boil water, let alone put a few ingredients together. Not good. And not looking good going forward either currently. Disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Thinking the warming/north trend is nearing an end ....Trend towards south/colder likely to begin shortly...How far? Not sure but some kind of middle ground of yesterday’s 0z/6z runs vs today’s 0z/6z runs seems like a good baseline, hedging in favor of colder/south vs warmer/north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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