40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Its actually worse than 18z...you have to go to the N ORH hills to get much of any accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I get like 2"....got 3-4" at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its actually worse than 18z...you have to go to the N ORH hills to get much of any accumulation. The high pressure slid a tad east and as the storm slowed the further east HIgh P allowed the low to drift a bit north over Extreme E mass . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The high pressure slid a tad east and as the storm slowed the further east HIgh P allowed the low to drift a bit north over Extreme E mass . Can't catch a break today. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 This event has the looks of a Savoy, MA to Woodford, VT special all over it right now. 1K+ on the eastern slopes of the northern Berkshires or S VT look good. A potent LLJ out of the E and SE will work wonders when it slams up against the terrain here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Every piece of guidance has continued to get worse. I'll give it until 12z tomorrow to reverse, but I'm just about to move onto February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Game...set...trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I'm out. Have fun tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Every piece of guidance has continued to get worse. I'll give it until 12z tomorrow to reverse, but I'm just about to move onto February. Time to throw in the towel Weak POS storm Fits this terrible winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I think many of us mentioned it was a real tenuous setup with little room for error. So it should not be a surprise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I have informed the chickens and they are not pleased. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 Meh. Not a good look for most. I still might get a few sloppy inches but the trends are what they are. I will still be watching over the next two days to see if there are changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think many of us mentioned it was a real tenuous setup with little room for error. So it should not be a surprise. Absolutely. No one should be surprised 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Meh. Not a good look for most. I still might get a few sloppy inches but the trends are what they are. I will still be watching over the next two days to see if there are changes Models still have you in the game Anyone in and elevated N of Pike is still in the game and those near Portland Over to Dendy need to watch as well The 6z gfs clown still hits The 3 big erly uplsope nor’easter areas from S NY to Berks , N orh county to Monands and just N of MHT really well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Euro went from tracking the ULL over like MVY to SYR in 24 hours. That's a good way to make a system irrelevant pretty quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think many of us mentioned it was a real tenuous setup with little room for error. So it should not be a surprise. Somebody get this man a cookie, stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Somebody get this man a cookie, stat. I'm trying to lose weight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro went from tracking the ULL over like MVY to SYR in 24 hours. That's a good way to make a system irrelevant pretty quickly. That also says that the model sucks Another wasted storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: That also says that the model sucks Another wasted storm You were never in the game, and even here for that matter. Those wobbles happen several days out. Maybe it wobbles back south for higher interior. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You were never in the game, and even here for that matter. Those wobbles happen several days out. Maybe it wobbles back south for higher interior. Who knows. Yeah even when it was tracking over MVY he was still getting a rainstorm. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You were never in the game, and even here for that matter. Those wobbles happen several days out. Maybe it wobbles back south for higher interior. Who knows. Any support at all for a kick back south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Enjoy the cold rain, it's the only rain we've got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Yeah... we were never really in the game down here, but I didn’t think anybody else in SNE was either, save for maybe the highest elevations out west, and that seems to be playing out as well. Too much garbage to sort through to get a decent system. Trying to thread a needle that just doesn’t want to happen this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: I'm out. Have fun tracking. No you aren’t, stop lying, you’ll still check each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any support at all for a kick back south? I'm not seeing one at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Albany AFD: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... All models continue the idea of a storm system impacting the region Saturday/Sunday. Although the 00Z model suite has brought little clarity to the situation. The precipitation onset time has come into better agreement with the GFS/ECMWF bringing precipitation into the area Saturday morning into afternoon. The GFS continues to be consistent in its evolution of surface and upper air features bringing the closed low across New York City with the surface low tracking toward Cape Cod. On the other hand, the ECMWF now depicts a more westward and northward solution bring the closed upper level low and its surface feature near or slightly to the west of the CWA. A check of the GEFS ensembles shows that the likelihood of heaviest precipitation (24 hour 1 inch probabilities) would occur across the mid-Hudson Valley northeast into Litchfield and Berkshire Counties. 24 hour 0.5 inch probabilities exceed 50% across the entire region. GEF probability of 2m temps < 273K at 18Z Saturday are zero for Albany and points south. Therein lies the challenge -- What will surface temperatures be during the event? The forecast grids were populated using a GFS top down scenario. Along with the surface temperature forecast, this process yielded a big question mark for valley locations - Rain/Snow/Rain and Snow? The current forecast yields little in the way of Valley snow. Valley temperatures are forecast a few degrees above freezing, so it`s close. In the higher elevations of the Catskills, Helderbergs, Berkshires, southern Green mountains the more likely p-type is snow. An ECMWF track would bring in more warm air aloft and offer the possibility of a storm featuring mixed wintry precipitation -- sleet and freezing rain. In constructing the forecast this ECMWF scenario was not considered. That`s not to say it couldn`t happen. In summary, although we are getting closer to the event, there is still considerable uncertainty in how this storm plays out. We continue to assess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 Why discount the Euro track? Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Why discount the Euro track? Odd Yeah, found that odd too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: Albany AFD: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... All models continue the idea of a storm system impacting the region Saturday/Sunday. Although the 00Z model suite has brought little clarity to the situation. The precipitation onset time has come into better agreement with the GFS/ECMWF bringing precipitation into the area Saturday morning into afternoon. The GFS continues to be consistent in its evolution of surface and upper air features bringing the closed low across New York City with the surface low tracking toward Cape Cod. On the other hand, the ECMWF now depicts a more westward and northward solution bring the closed upper level low and its surface feature near or slightly to the west of the CWA. A check of the GEFS ensembles shows that the likelihood of heaviest precipitation (24 hour 1 inch probabilities) would occur across the mid-Hudson Valley northeast into Litchfield and Berkshire Counties. 24 hour 0.5 inch probabilities exceed 50% across the entire region. GEF probability of 2m temps < 273K at 18Z Saturday are zero for Albany and points south. Therein lies the challenge -- What will surface temperatures be during the event? The forecast grids were populated using a GFS top down scenario. Along with the surface temperature forecast, this process yielded a big question mark for valley locations - Rain/Snow/Rain and Snow? The current forecast yields little in the way of Valley snow. Valley temperatures are forecast a few degrees above freezing, so it`s close. In the higher elevations of the Catskills, Helderbergs, Berkshires, southern Green mountains the more likely p-type is snow. An ECMWF track would bring in more warm air aloft and offer the possibility of a storm featuring mixed wintry precipitation -- sleet and freezing rain. In constructing the forecast this ECMWF scenario was not considered. That`s not to say it couldn`t happen. In summary, although we are getting closer to the event, there is still considerable uncertainty in how this storm plays out. We continue to assess. The times have changed when the Euro gets tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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