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The Annual Countdown to May 1 Thread ©


weatherwiz
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On 1/20/2020 at 8:51 AM, weatherwiz said:

As we make strides towards the second half of winter that means spring is right around the corner!!! This is usually a great opportunity to start shifting the brain towards convective forecasting. Great time to discuss previous events and start throwing out ideas on how the global pattern may evolve as we move through spring. This May is extra special as I am likely going to go tornado chasing out west for the first time ever!!!! But with that said...can't lose focus on our severe season as once the Plains season winds down we quickly ramp up. 

102 Days to go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Chasing is an amazing experience! I'm guessing you will be going with a tour company? I've been fortunate enough to be able to go twice, 7 day trip in 2017, and a more recent 10 day trip last May! Amazing to see these beasts up close and in person!!

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On 2/23/2020 at 8:37 AM, blizzardofozz said:

Chasing is an amazing experience! I'm guessing you will be going with a tour company? I've been fortunate enough to be able to go twice, 7 day trip in 2017, and a more recent 10 day trip last May! Amazing to see these beasts up close and in person!!

I am just going with a friend...we are not doing a tour company. I know that could be a little risky as neither of have have done chasing out in the Plains and it's completely different than here in the Northeast, however, we're not looking to get up front and close to any tornadoes should we see any. We'll likely be tracking from a rather far distance. At worst (depending on storm mode and hazards) we would maybe try to get into some really good hail and winds. 

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2 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

Wiz can we start looking at the 300 hr on the 12Z GFS   that looks like a nice squall line coming into the NE.   Definitely the most exciting look in months here.   Heavy heavy tree damage  :twister:

We absolutely can start looking at 300= HR progs for convection. 

I like scrolling the mouse across the time on the SBCAPE charts...already started that 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

..Southern New England/Mid Atlantic into the Southeast...
   Multiple clusters of thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of
   the period Thursday morning from portions of the Mid Atlantic into
   the Southeast. The location and severity of any such clusters is
   quite uncertain at this point, but weak-to-moderate instability and
   favorable deep-layer shear will support some wind/hail risk from
   Thursday morning into at least the early afternoon. Large-scale
   ascent is forecast to generally weaken Thursday afternoon, resulting
   in a general decrease in storm coverage and intensity with time
   along the surface boundary.  

   Further north into southern New England, strongly forced frontal
   convection will be possible from late morning into the afternoon. If
   sufficient low-level moistening occurs ahead of the front, some
   damaging wind threat may evolve, but confidence is too low at this
   time for any probabilities this far north. 
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