Wet snowstorm potential Jan 25-26, mainly high terrain northwest of NYC

[Animal]

Morning afd mt Holly nws still calling for a mainly all snow event I 80 north with several inches. Couple of inches near I 78

timing difference & low placement noted as key differences 

all areas go to snow Saturday night as the low explodes passing the area. 

[wdrag]

Good Wednesday morning everyone reading this, (Jan 22).

I'll add the NWS graphic (first image) produced probably prior to the 00z/22 GFS and EC portion of the ensembles. It's a little more optimistic than the 00z/22 GEFS/EPS, however, I can see those ensemble probabilities for 3+ inches of snow increasing a bit.  If they do not increase by this time tomorrow, then the I84 corridor high terrain snow and some ice would  probably be limited to elevations above 1500 feet. In other words, virtually all of the NYC forum (2nd image added, courtesy of our moderators) a non player.  Before jumping onto that downside no significant snow event, my thoughts.

1) The ECMWF has been quite varied the past two cycles.  I'm not convinced of its (EPS) northerly latitude of the 500MB track, the 00z/22 GEFS being further south.

2) The UKMET, while a little bit odd (see 3rd graphic), does end up with the 500 Low near the GEFS position by 12z/Sunday.... but how it gets there is a little more intriguing...it drives a negative tilt lobe eastward across DC before lifting newd. That would allow for a little more cold air damming of marginally cold enough snow thermal profile (inland terrain).  I am just unsure whether the UK is realistic. 

3) I 'think' the NAM is backing off a little on its wound up 500 Low over IL at 72-84 hrs and if this later development continues eastward the next  6 forecast cycles, then I think we're looking at a high terrain wet snow event,  with impact down to POU and FWN as of course MPO/MSV.  GFS extended MOS is still pretty  cold.

4) Strong UVM during midday Saturday in the distant nw suburbs (ne PA and extreme nw NJ) may change freezing rain and rain to a period wet accumulative snow. 

As it stands now, portions of the high terrain in the interior northeast north of I80 in  PA northeastward (parts of NYS, northern and western New England)  are in position to see 6" of snow while little if any is expected-modeled for NYC.  I think its a bit early (4 days in advance) to say this storm won't present significant winter hazards at times this weekend down into the I84 high terrain. 

648A/22

 

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Mods if this needs to be moved to Banter or somewhere else please do so. I posted this in the Western NY thread but I could use some help as I have to head to UB ( Amherst ) from Rockland County with my son to take him back to school and I have been trying to figure out when to leave and return home. I realize we still have a few days to go and as of right now the weather is not written in stone. My plan was to drive him and a friend back to school and for me to get a room over night and return home after resting but it appears to me that I might be screwed. Looks to me that snow showers and frozen precipitation could start as soon as Friday night and that this only gets worse as we get into Saturday--->  Am I mistaken ,do you think I can get this ride in if we head to Buffalo on Friday morning and I head back to Rockland either late Friday nite or VERY EARLY Saturday morning or will I be looking for trouble. I have driven thru Windsor , Binghamton and other places during freezing rain and that is NOT ANY FUN ,I am looking at a 5 hour drive --> thanks in advance , thoughts ?

[hudsonvalley21]

50 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Mods if this needs to be moved to Banter or somewhere else please do so. I posted this in the Western NY thread but I could use some help as I have to head to UB ( Amherst ) from Rockland County with my son to take him back to school and I have been trying to figure out when to leave and return home. I realize we still have a few days to go and as of right now the weather is not written in stone. My plan was to drive him and a friend back to school and for me to get a room over night and return home after resting but it appears to me that I might be screwed. Looks to me that snow showers and frozen precipitation could start as soon as Friday night and that this only gets worse as we get into Saturday--->  Am I mistaken ,do you think I can get this ride in if we head to Buffalo on Friday morning and I head back to Rockland either late Friday nite or VERY EARLY Saturday morning or will I be looking for trouble. I have driven thru Windsor , Binghamton and other places during freezing rain and that is NOT ANY FUN ,I am looking at a 5 hour drive --> thanks in advance , thoughts ?

You could move up you travel days one day sooner if that’s possible. As wdrag  just posted, you could have some issues in the higher elevation areas along your route. You looking at around an inch of QPF for the event and it’s still not locked in on what types will occur especially along that route that is so elevation varying.

[Brasiluvsnow]

28 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

You could move up you travel days one day sooner if that’s possible. As wdrag  just posted, you could have some issues in the higher elevation areas along your route. You looking at around an inch of QPF for the event and it’s still not locked in on what types will occur especially along that route that is so elevation varying.

HV21 ----thanks for the reply and yes I saw his post and I am trying to leave sooner I think that its best I get to Buff no later than Thursday nite and return home on Friday EARLY thats how I am leaning right now but I am juggling schedules trying to make it happen

[purduewx80]

12Z NAM and some other guidance showing the potential for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon w/ the triple point/front. Lapse rates near 7C/km and CAPE up to 500 J/kg is more than enough when you have a focused 50-65KT low level jet. A few hours of heavy rain are likely whether or not there are thunderstorms in the city.

 

[sferic]

Are the catkills at 1500 feet on up still game for snow on Saturday?

[Ericjcrash]

38 minutes ago, sferic said:

Are the catkills at 1500 feet on up still game for snow on Saturday?

Looking less and less likely. Looks like you have to be fairly far north to escape the rain.

[snowman19]

42 minutes ago, sferic said:

Are the catkills at 1500 feet on up still game for snow on Saturday?

If the models are correct, it even turns to rain in the Catskills Saturday 

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

12Z NAM and some other guidance showing the potential for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon w/ the triple point/front. Lapse rates near 7C/km and CAPE up to 500 J/kg is more than enough when you have a focused 50-65KT low level jet. A few hours of heavy rain are likely whether or not there are thunderstorms in the city.

 

This winter so far feels like an extended late fall that is blending into a very early spring. 

[Juliancolton]

It seems like, in addition to the warmer and more inland trends, the models also favor more latitude gain before the low occludes and stalls, reducing the risk of any big hydrological or coastal impacts. I'm sure that's been at the forefront of everyone's attention this week...

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 hours ago, sferic said:

Are the catkills at 1500 feet on up still game for snow on Saturday?

You are still in the game, yes. Read the NWS Albany forecaster's discussion. They feel precip type will alternate between wet snow and rain depending on elevation and precip intensity. 

[sferic]

16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

well I was excited to be going to NE PA this weekend for a ski trip

looks like it’s gonna be rain. what a crap winter.
 

Not even gonna leave the ski house if it’s raining. 

What is that location's elevation?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I’ll be at 2k+ in southern Vermont and expecting an all snow event. 

[sferic]

34 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

We are staying in hawley PA

 

1,050 feet. NWS discussion says likely rain and snow they believe 2-5” in the hills which I’d assume hawley is considered the hills

 

thought to myself well if it’s not going to snow on Long Island at least I’ll see it there

 

now it’s trending further inland, lol 

just checked Hawley 1,200 ft elevation. NE PA you're going to have at least mixed I would venture to say

[larrye]

Based on what I'm seeing at least as of now, I'm gonna guess that other than delays associated with wind/rain, I shouldn't have any trouble flying out of HPN around 4PM on Saturday?

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’ll be at 2k+ in southern Vermont and expecting an all snow event. 

Southern VT won't be safe either if the warmer models are right. NAM drives warm air right into ME. 

[sferic]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Southern VT won't be safe either if the warmer models are right. NAM drives warm air right into ME. 

Is this a case that the further west you are of the Hudson and west of the storm track ( 100 miles west)  and have good elevation one would be in better shape?

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, sferic said:

Is this a case that the further west you are of the Hudson and west of the storm track ( 100 miles west)  and have good elevation one would be in better shape?

The problem seems to be one we face constantly where the primary stays alive too long and drives warm air in ahead of it, the upper low tracks too far north and the coastal low tracks inland, and takes forever to take over. That's what drives warm air so far north. Doesn't look like it's all snow unless you're way north in upstate NY or in the midwest. 

[NYCweatherNOW]

On 1/21/2020 at 3:10 PM, Allsnow said:

For costal sections and the metro area it has 1 inch total for the next 15 days. So yeah, close the shades until further notice 

Did you see the euro control ?

[wdrag]

Good Thursday morning everyone (Jan 23), My last post on this thread, unless I get lucky to have an observation of wintry precip Saturday morning in extreme nw NJ. System has once again warmed northward and only a brief period of front side minor accumulative snow ice seems possible Saturday morning around sunrise, above 1500 feet. Need to make the best of a poor winter for snow-ice in these parts. 543A/23.

[White Gorilla]

Closing the shades on this one and long range snow threats won't be taken seriously by me until the threat is right over us. Winter is not over by any means. 

[jm1220]

19 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’ll be at 2k+ in southern Vermont and expecting an all snow event. 

Enjoy the washout.  

[Animal]

Mt Holly nws is calling for potentially the most significant ice storm of the season  nw nj poconos. Per afternoon afd 

[forkyfork]

[bluewave]

No surprise with the record breaking Great Lakes storm track.

 

[forkyfork]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No surprise with the record breaking Great Lakes storm track.

 

that was a problem last spring/summer

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

that was a problem last spring/summer

Continuing right into this month with the long term stuck storm track. Imagine if one of these Great Lakes lows  deepens below 975 mb over the region.

https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/01/11/storm-surge-brings-crashing-waves-flooding-to-lakefront-areas-that-have-already-been-suffering/

[forkyfork]

On 1/22/2020 at 1:13 PM, purduewx80 said:

12Z NAM and some other guidance showing the potential for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon w/ the triple point/front. Lapse rates near 7C/km and CAPE up to 500 J/kg is more than enough when you have a focused 50-65KT low level jet. A few hours of heavy rain are likely whether or not there are thunderstorms in the city.

 

getting into the 3km nam range

[Animal]

wwa for up to 0.25 of freezing rain

poconos forecast is near 0.5 of ice