Wet snowstorm potential Jan 25-26, mainly high terrain northwest of NYC

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

OZ GFS the 540 line is east of us - 850's good enough for later January - mid - lower levels questionable

925 temps warm at the coast not to mention surface is upper 30s in the city and 40s on LI during heaviest precip

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

925 temps warm at the coast not to mention surface is upper 30s in the city and 40s on LI during heaviest precip

Better run for the area

Need the low further  east and to develop faster for the coast. A step in the right direction.

Nice run for inland areas

[HVSnowLover]

Just looking at the temp profiles I'd say from I287 north this is a real threat that's where surface is 35 or below and 925 temps are below freezing most of the storm. Of course it could still change but the low would have to track further east and be stronger for NYC to have any chance

[Juliancolton]

It's kind of nice that the GFS op got markedly worse with upper low placement and jet dynamics, and still managed to fashion a snowstorm.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

OZ GFS the 540 line is east of us - 850's good enough for later January - mid - lower levels questionable - would be very helpful if there was stronger HP to the north

[NYCweatherNOW]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Anyone got the GEFS I can’t find them?

[wdrag]

Good Tuesday morning everyone, Jan 21.

No change from yesterdays originating post with new support graphics added. 

Still need to root for southeast of current 500-850MB and sfc low tracks,  for NYC-LI and south of I80 to get some little amounts.  However,  right now I dont have much hope for that.  

For our nw fringe of the NYC forum... I think this is a Saturday event, with focus especially afternoon-evening when some banding may occur. Snow impact is also I think elevation dependent, where it's potentially a 6+" wet snowstorm.  There could be some backside banding-wraparound snow down to LI Sunday morning but above freezing temps there probably preclude any accumulation in the city.  

The images: NWS ensemble graphic produced I think prior to 00z/21 ensemble incorporation. Probs for 3" have increased 20% into far nw NJ since yesterday.  Then the EPS probs for 3" and 6+" are included from 00z/21 courtesy the ECMWF and Weather.US ( no major changes there). The fourth image is from Bob Hart's MOE FSU weather page, which allows a vertical profile of temps and upward motion for Sparta NJ. You can see potential for a period of heavy wet snow there and temps cool during the first shot in the afternoon, IF this lift in the snow growth zone occurs. You also get a good sense of the boundary layer temp there and the likelihood for elevation dependent accumulation.  I've also checked 00z/21 GFS MOS for MPO/MSV/FWN/BDL (consistent with previous cycles) and all suggest elevations will be near freezing during the precip. Finally the downer.  LGA snow plumes...  at least a few have biased the bold black line mean higher but the preponderance of this 00z/21 snowfall plume diagram is less than 1". I added the Scranton snow plume which shows the potency in the plumes but with most clusters in the 4 and 6" range there which I think is reasonable start for higher elevations of there I84 corridor.  POU snow plumes have ~3" mean with those outlier foot plus also probably related to excessive QPF which is unlikely as this storm for us looks transitory.   I may not post tomorrow if there isn't a significant change in the model ensembles, or if I do post, could be delayed til 8AM.  616A/21

[sussexcountyobs]

17 minutes ago, Animal said:

Significant snow storm likely for the interior.

morning mt Holly afd going most all snow I 80 north 

 

Yes. Saw the NWS point and click forecast for our area. Yesterday it was saying rain snow mix Sat., Sat night, and Sunday morning.  Now,  no mention of rain. Still very early though.

[wdrag]

Agreed....  just need to be patient.  06z/21 500 ensembles and snowfall in for the GEFS.  Just need to be patient and look for negatives.  I'd like to see the GGEM become a little snowier again... ditto the EC.  Still...  fairly impressive snowfall forecast in the raw GEFS/EPS for the region n of I80 later this week and weekend. 

Have a good day, Walt

 

[PB-99]

 

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

12z runs of GFS and CMC were not good for snow in the area, even away from NYC metro. Low is just too far north and west. 

[Rtd208]

17 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

12z runs of GFS and CMC were not good for snow in the area, even away from NYC metro. Low is just too far north and west. 

Plenty of heavy rain though. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

42 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

12z runs of GFS and CMC were not good for snow in the area, even away from NYC metro. Low is just too far north and west. 

The Catskills do great, at least until the next set of runs.

[HeadInTheClouds]

8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The Catskills do great, at least until the next set of runs.

Yes they do and you may do ok as well being further west with some elevation. I may be too far east for any significant snows from this one even though I'm north of 84. We shall see. 

[White Gorilla]

22 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yes they do and you may do ok as well being further west with some elevation. I may be too far east for any significant snows from this one even though I'm north of 84. We shall see. 

The only way for valley locations north of 84 to get a big snowstorm is a low track further southeast and more intense resulting in more dynamic cooling.  Otherwise, this is an elevation snow party only. 

[snowman19]

The UKMET wants nothing to do with snow in the metro area for the weekend either, just like the ICON, GFS, CMC

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The UKMET wants nothing to do with snow in the metro area for the weekend either, just like the ICON, GFS, CMC

Thank you 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

43 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yes they do and you may do ok as well being further west with some elevation. I may be too far east for any significant snows from this one even though I'm north of 84. We shall see. 

What is the elevation at your place Hyde?

[binbisso]

Today's 12z Euro buries Northwest New Jersey and Orange County. Gets snow in to Northern Westchester Western Bergen County and Rockland County

[MJO812]

Eps is really  interesting. There are several members witn accumulating snow right to the coast.

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps is really  interesting. There are several members witn accumulating snow right to the coast.

The EPS actually went north with the upper level low since the last run, a bad sign even for southern New England

[hudsonvalley21]

52 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Today's 12z Euro buries Northwest New Jersey and Orange County. Gets snow in to Northern Westchester Western Bergen County and Rockland County

Can you please give the snow amounts for the KSWF area. I don’t have access to the maps and think that we can’t post them here. Thanks 

[purduewx80]

26 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps is really  interesting. There are several members witn accumulating snow right to the coast.

I think our only "hope" in coastal areas is some wrap around snow showers Sunday morning - even that's a low prob in terms of accumulation potential.

00Z runs will have sampled that potent upper low in the PacNW that seems to be responsible for slingshotting our system farther to the N. 

[Animal]

12 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Can you please give the snow amounts for the KSWF area. I don’t have access to the maps and think that we can’t post them here. Thanks 

Saw it posted in central pa.

6-10 in nw nj & Orange County.

euro was awful with the Saturday storm recently....

[snywx]

18 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Can you please give the snow amounts for the KSWF area. I don’t have access to the maps and think that we can’t post them here. Thanks 

Euro is 8-12" for orange county. 12" toward Port Jervis & 8" toward the Hudson.

[Allsnow]

The EPS is incredibly snowy for northern Pa and southern Ny. Probably the snowiest I have seen them all year. 7-8 on the mean 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Animal said:

Saw it posted in central pa.

6-10 in nw nj & Orange County.

euro was awful with the Saturday storm recently....

Euro  has been awful all winter

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The EPS is incredibly snowy for northern Pa and southern Ny. Probably the snowiest I have seen them all year. 7-8 on the mean 

For costal sections and the metro area it has 1 inch total for the next 15 days. So yeah, close the shades until further notice 

[hudsonvalley21]

19 minutes ago, Animal said:

Saw it posted in central pa.

6-10 in nw nj & Orange County.

euro was awful with the Saturday storm recently....

Thanks 

[HeadInTheClouds]

4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

What is the elevation at your place Hyde?

200 ft.