Wet snowstorm potential Jan 25-26, mainly high terrain northwest of NYC

[HVSnowLover]

  On 1/20/2020 at 5:04 PM, Allsnow said:

Similar to the cmc. Snow is restricted to NNE.

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Not a great sign of the GFS is the only model showing the colder solution. However the GFS did the best overall with the most recent storm, the other models had the primary too strong and only had brief snow to rain a week out.

[Allsnow]

  On 1/20/2020 at 5:28 PM, HVSnowLover said:

Not a great sign of the GFS is the only model showing the colder solution. However the GFS did the best overall with the most recent storm, the other models had the primary too strong and only had brief snow to rain a week out.

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That’s incorrect. The gfs way to snowy and wet for the area. The nam did the best on thermals.

[HVSnowLover]

  On 1/20/2020 at 5:36 PM, Allsnow said:

That’s incorrect. The gfs way to snowy and wet for the area. The nam did the best on thermals.

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It was too wet that's true but it did better with temps. (I'm talking in terms of what it was predicting this far out)

[purduewx80]

12Z Euro is fairly close to the UKMET. They both suggest more of a wind/coastal flooding issue around here than anything.

[Doorman]

[Enigma]

State College/PSU special. About on par for this season.

[HVSnowLover]

  On 1/20/2020 at 7:06 PM, Doorman said:

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Still not crazy off from something for interior parts of the subforum but definitely has an elevation dependent look to it.

[SnoSki14]

  On 1/20/2020 at 6:33 PM, purduewx80 said:

12Z Euro is fairly close to the UKMET. They both suggest more of a wind/coastal flooding issue around here than anything.

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Yeah I buy the coastal flooding risks.

[NYCweatherNOW]

Eps is much better to a snowstorm. Low right off the coast off Maryland parked south of long island

[Enigma]

  On 1/20/2020 at 8:33 PM, NYCweatherNOW said:

Eps is much better to a snowstorm. Low right off the coast off Maryland parked south of long island

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EPS is a nothing burger. Takes the SLP into PHL. Coastal plan gets inundated with wind and high surf. 

[NYCweatherNOW]

  On 1/20/2020 at 9:23 PM, Enigma said:

EPS is a nothing burger. Takes the SLP into PHL. Coastal plan gets inundated with wind and high surf. 

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I was just showing that the eps has a favorable track. If this takes a benchmark track and it’s a bit stronger than some of the models are showing it will snow down to the coast. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

This system needs to be watched by anybody 50+ miles N and W of NYC. I think the coast is toast. 

[Enigma]

  On 1/20/2020 at 10:11 PM, NYCweatherNOW said:

I was just showing that the eps has a favorable track. If this takes a benchmark track and it’s a bit stronger than some of the models are showing it will snow down to the coast. 

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EPS is not a benchmark track. SLP heads from DC,to PHL to NYC. Tidbits image grossly misrepresents reality.

 

[Doorman]

Thin Line Between Love and Hate.....

[NEG NAO]

18 ZGFS has significant snow accumulation all the was down into North Central NJ - north of the Raritan River - still 5 days away - plenty of time for even more changes good or bad

[weatherpruf]

  On 1/20/2020 at 11:26 PM, NEG NAO said:

18 ZGFS has significant snow accumulation all the was down into North Central NJ - north of the Raritan River - still 5 days away - plenty of time for even more changes good or bad

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North of the Raritan is not CNJ though. Jackson is about where CNJ is. I learned this when I taught there and called it SNJ, I was corrected. 

[TJW014]

  On 1/20/2020 at 11:34 PM, weatherpruf said:

North of the Raritan is not CNJ though. Jackson is about where CNJ is. I learned this when I taught there and called it SNJ, I was corrected. 

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Lol, the infamous "Central NJ" debate 

[Snowlover11]

Definitely a threat to watch, but definitely a thread the needle event also. As of now to reach anything significant you would have to go 50-75 miles nw of the city to be noteworthy.  Still several days away to iron that out.

[Rjay]

State College is around 10" for the season.

[mattinpa]

  On 1/20/2020 at 10:53 PM, Enigma said:

 

EPS is not a benchmark track. SLP heads from DC,to PHL to NYC. Tidbits image grossly misrepresents reality.

 

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Thanks for the explanation. That image confused me with the L off the coast. 

[Enigma]

  On 1/20/2020 at 11:40 PM, Snowlover11 said:

Definitely a threat to watch, but definitely a thread the needle event also. As of now to reach anything significant you would have to go 50-75 miles nw of the city to be noteworthy.  Still several days away to iron that out.

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IF we were to snow along I-95, we'd be relying entirely on rapid SLP intensification coupled with very heavy precip. Could be elevation driven. This reminds me of April  Fools storm 1997.

[MJO812]

  On 1/21/2020 at 12:26 AM, Rjay said:

State College is around 10" for the season.

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DC is under .5

Philly is also under .5

[MJO812]

Eps shifted slightly east and more favorable

Mean has around 2 inches for the city

[White Gorilla]

Model wobbling will continue for a while.  I won't pay real attention until later Wednesday and even then, approach with caution. 

[Poker2015]

When does this start for Sussex County? I'll be camping up there Friday night...

[jm1220]

  On 1/21/2020 at 12:26 AM, Rjay said:

State College is around 10" for the season.

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Yep. It really hasn’t been a good season for anyone so far in the NE except for some hard hit by the early Dec storm and Maine. That area is at 25% or less what they average for the winter. 

[RockawayRowdies]

  On 1/21/2020 at 2:33 AM, Poker2015 said:

When does this start for Sussex County? I'll be camping up there Friday night...

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You're talking about weekend storm timings on Monday. Think about that for a second.

[HVSnowLover]

GFS a bit hit for the interior parts of the subforum again

[MJO812]

  On 1/21/2020 at 4:06 AM, HVSnowLover said:

GFS a bit hit for the interior parts of the subforum again

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Slightly further east with the low but a nice hit for inland areas 

[NEG NAO]

OZ GFS the 540 line is east of us - 850's good enough for later January - mid - lower levels questionable - would be very helpful if there was stronger HP to the north