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Winter 2020 Med/Long Range Disco


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8 hours ago, RedSky said:

Hey man like single digits in March on the GFS, just another ordinary start to spring in the new backwards clown world :lol:

How can this possibly happen short of some massive strat warming event with such a persistent +AO and strong PV?

 

 

gfs_T850_us_59.png

GFS op has an extremely cold bias. Ens families and weeklies all suggest a mild start to March. GEFS in particular agree that the cold map you posted is likely garbage:

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_58.png

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21 hours ago, RedSky said:

Hey man like single digits in March on the GFS, just another ordinary start to spring in the new backwards clown world :lol:

How can this possibly happen short of some massive strat warming event with such a persistent +AO and strong PV?

 

 

gfs_T850_us_59.png

I agree.

Considering the exceptionally strong polar vortex and the reality that its impact on the pattern will likely linger even after it weakens, the kind of extreme cold that had periodically shown up on the GFS or the large-scale cold anomalies for March/spring on earlier CFSv2 runs are likely far-fetched. The GEFS and GFS both have pronounced cold biases, as well.

Finally, it increasingly appears that snowfall prospects will be limited even after February if historic experience is representative. Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro has it and is close. CMC has it but is west. GEFS is a beauty. GEPS also has it.

But I'm still willing to bet it doesnt happen based on this winter. Probably will end up as the ultimate tease with everything trending to the good for once and then fall apart last 36 hours.

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