RedSky Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Spotted a pair of Swan's today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 4 hours ago, Voyager said: I'm just getting sick of the parade of storms at this point. How many months now have been above normal with precipitation? At least it's some action even though it's rain. Hell, I'm happy with windy days at this point...a little entertainment in the weather world. 35-50F, sunny with light winds is completely boring in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 If we don't get a pattern shift in March, it should lead to a helluva severe season in March - April - May. These storm tracks with even a little bit of instability would be severe threat after severe threat. But as I said a few weeks ago, we'll probably punt the entire month of Feb, get a little hope in March that probably fails because it's March, then 8 weeks of cold, rain, and mud. I would be honestly happy if we slide right into spring come March after this winter, but let's be real, mother nature is going to stretch this monstrosity of a winter out as long as possible... Side note: It's growing more and more likely that I set my all time futility record with every day that passes with no end to the pattern in sight. Still an inch below the dreaded 97-98 winter that finished with 2.4 inches. This winter will be the 6th winter in my lifetime(most likely) with < 10" of snow. 01-02 we had 5 inches, 11-12 we had 5.5 inches, 91-92 we had 6 inches, 07-08 we had 6.5 inches. So about 1 in every 5 years of my life so far has been a complete ratter winter. But some good news, in those 29 winters, we've never had back to back winters of < 10 inches. The average of the winters that came after those 5 < 10" winters was 23.8" with a median of 14". So next year should almost certainly be better even if it could be "bad" overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Bored this morning so here are some more PHL stats. Since 1884 there have been 21 winters with < 10" of snow at PHL. The average of the following winter was 24.6". The median was 21.8". 5 of the 21 were followed by another year of <10". 11 of 21 were above normal including 2 of the top 3 snowiest winters of all time. So statistically, next year should be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Looks like a storm day 10 with some potential on the GFS. Been there a few runs now. Should be fun to watch this one go from an OTS miss to cutting over Chicago over the next 5 days. Or this will be the time the GFS nails it and the Carolina's/Southern VA sees a MECS which would actually fit with the theme of "snowing everywhere but here" of this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Looks like a storm day 10 with some potential on the GFS. Been there a few runs now. Should be fun to watch this one go from an OTS miss to cutting over Chicago over the next 5 days. Or this will be the time the GFS nails it and the Carolina's/Southern VA sees a MECS which would actually fit with the theme of "snowing everywhere but here" of this winter. Such a strange system....has been consistently on the op but is the only model showing it. Ensemble means are a mid lat ridge coming out of the SE, well AN 850s, etc. GFS is really a crap op model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Looks like a storm day 10 with some potential on the GFS. Been there a few runs now. Should be fun to watch this one go from an OTS miss to cutting over Chicago over the next 5 days. Or this will be the time the GFS nails it and the Carolina's/Southern VA sees a MECS which would actually fit with the theme of "snowing everywhere but here" of this winter. This should work out just fine: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Taking any snow out of the conversation Larry Cosgrove seemed pretty concerned for a potential storm which could be a major player for extreme weather over most of the eastern US late month which the models seem to be hinting at. He also hinted that more major springs storms to could follow. March/April can be active months for high impact weather events so just because we may not snow that certainly doesn't mean we can't see a few high impact weather events which could bring others hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Todays 06z GFS has a classic miller A at the end of the run. Beautiful. Good hit from D.C to Boston. First one I've seen modeled this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 hour ago, wkd said: Todays 06z GFS has a classic miller A at the end of the run. Beautiful. Good hit from D.C to Boston. First one I've seen modeled this year. Fits the March pattern shift that last's til mid May. Hey at least we'd get our pity storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 hours ago, wkd said: Todays 06z GFS has a classic miller A at the end of the run. Beautiful. Good hit from D.C to Boston. First one I've seen modeled this year. That's the post run-run. If that's accurate, the GFS wins the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 hours ago, wkd said: Todays 06z GFS has a classic miller A at the end of the run. Beautiful. Good hit from D.C to Boston. First one I've seen modeled this year. 0z had it cutting over Minnesota. Been keeping an eye on it as I'll be in NNE during that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 23 hours ago, The Iceman said: Fits the March pattern shift that last's til mid May. Hey at least we'd get our pity storm... We wont. Not seeing any hints or signals this March like we did the past several. Hopefully we will have severe. Not sure if the past few decent spring severe were due to the late winter events. If so maybe not a good omen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 On 2/18/2020 at 7:59 AM, The Iceman said: Fits the March pattern shift that last's til mid May. Hey at least we'd get our pity storm... We will get hit hard in March Fitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 36 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We will get hit hard in March Fitting The pattern evolution is much more supportive of NC and VA seeing a couple events. That is actually much more fitting tbh. We missed N, E, and W so far so now let's establish a window where S gets in on the action right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 0z has that Miller A with chesco in the 9-14 range. But the GFS and NAVGEM 6z have the SLP cutting through Ontario. Who can guess which one will verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Selling hard on the day 8/9 threat showing up on the models. +NAO with no blocking in sight. That storm is cutting up the apps as we get closer. We needed it to be 300 miles OTS at this juncture... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The pattern evolution is much more supportive of NC and VA seeing a couple events. That is actually much more fitting tbh. We missed N, E, and W so far so now let's establish a window where S gets in on the action right? It's really unbelievable how much we've been screwed this winter. My sister lives in VA and will probably see some flakes while we get shafted yet again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 7 hours ago, The Iceman said: Selling hard on the day 8/9 threat showing up on the models. +NAO with no blocking in sight. That storm is cutting up the apps as we get closer. We needed it to be 300 miles OTS at this juncture... Its over after March 1 bro...maybe one last trackable event before then. Euro and CMC say hold my beer groundhog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 It has been over Worst winter ever It's insane how nothing is working out. I have never saw a winter like this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 21 hours ago, Birds~69 said: It's really unbelievable how much we've been screwed this winter. My sister lives in VA and will probably see some flakes while we get shafted yet again... As Kamu might say - road trip!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Take this winter out back and old yeller it. I want it to get warm. No more of these crappy days in the 30's and 40's. If it isn't going to snow, might as well torch so we can enjoy spring. ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 16 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Take this winter out back and old yeller it. I want it to get warm. No more of these crappy days in the 30's and 40's. If it isn't going to snow, might as well torch so we can enjoy spring. I wouldn't go as far as "torch" but yeah cash me in on this winter. In return, give me an active/cool Spring/Summer severe season to even things out a bit. This Winter has truly been lame...it has been nonexistent. We barely had things to track and it's over.... (smack to the head) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Euro doesnt want to let go. Interior big hit on day 7-8 then another near hit just s and e day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Yep gotta love the wagon train of arctic cold shots we have going on with no snow to show for it, when it would have been nice to have seen an early spring take hold for a change. February 28-29th on today's ECM is friggid 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Wouldn't be surprising to now see Feb 20-March 20 average closest to normal temps for the entire cold season, just had to happen. * except Nov we had cold then too lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 hours ago, The Iceman said: Take this winter out back and old yeller it. I want it to get warm. No more of these crappy days in the 30's and 40's. If it isn't going to snow, might as well torch so we can enjoy spring. ' I'm ready for 50s and 60s soon if it's not going to snow. I think the long stretches without snow to liven things up make the winter feel longer. At the same time I'm kind of glad it hasn't been too warm for too long, it seems to be helping the buds etc. to remain semi-dormant. Spring flowers in February probably wouldn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 5 hours ago, KamuSnow said: I'm ready for 50s and 60s soon if it's not going to snow. I think the long stretches without snow to liven things up make the winter feel longer. At the same time I'm kind of glad it hasn't been too warm for too long, it seems to be helping the buds etc. to remain semi-dormant. Spring flowers in February probably wouldn't work out. We have had many 50's this "winter" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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