CoolHandMike Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ask the regulars here. I did a paper on this a few years ago. It is a real thing and rarely (6%) fails. I see no reason we wont see some flakes at some point over the next 5 days. Whether it amounts to anything is tbd. I wouldn't mind a gander at that myself. Care to share? I can request on Researchgate if that helps (and if it's posted there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 44 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: Did it get published? What is the DOI# It was a research paper, not a book lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 17 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ask the regulars here. I did a paper on this a few years ago. It is a real thing and rarely (6%) fails. I see no reason we wont see some flakes at some point over the next 5 days. Whether it amounts to anything is tbd. Looks like it's going to fail this time. Weekend shortwave went poof overnight. Story of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Looks like it's going to fail this time. Weekend shortwave went poof overnight. Story of the winter. Any flakes is a win....even a flurry. I didnt discriminate in the study. Larger events generally dont fall into the categorical research. During offseason I may post the graphs I have been working on. The most common event for this study was flurries to 2". Warning events only occurred here 7% of the time with the former mentioned 77%! The other 16% were 2-5" events. I never expect much from the Wiggum Rule tbh but find it intriguing to watch the rubber band snap back and bring winter back even if short-lived. Btw the date range for this to work is quickly fading as Feb 14 is the cutoff for the research I have done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 NAMs have rain turning to wet snow friday as the storm wraps up. Usually doesnt work out but this winter I think many would take white rain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Trends. Desperate times call for desperate measures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Any flakes is a win....even a flurry. I didnt discriminate in the study. Larger events generally dont fall into the categorical research. During offseason I may post the graphs I have been working on. The most common event for this study was flurries to 2". Warning events only occurred here 7% of the time with the former mentioned 77%! The other 16% were 2-5" events. I never expect much from the Wiggum Rule tbh but find it intriguing to watch the rubber band snap back and bring winter back even if short-lived. Btw the date range for this to work is quickly fading as Feb 14 is the cutoff for the research I have done. When I read your post this morning about the 6% fail, I thought to myself this year will be the 6% what a dreadful winter this has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 hour ago, penndotguy said: When I read your post this morning about the 6% fail, I thought to myself this year will be the 6% what a dreadful winter this has been. Horrible. Sat-Sun is a very basic very bread n butter way we almost always score 1-4". Only this year could such a simple setup completely sh!t the bed. Really is incredible if you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 20 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It was a research paper, not a book lol. What I meant to say is how can I find it to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 7 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: What I meant to say is how can I find it to read. I will upload it when I get the chance and all data has been entered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 The previous two winters, March has been the snowiest month here. I have a feeling this winter will be a repeat. Of course, unless the rest of February surprises us it wouldn't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 NAMs are very close are getting some deformation band snows in the NW burbs tomorrow in response to a 974mb low. Very dynamic setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Meh, just your ordinary everyday 962mb low pressure off of AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 The window I have been keying on is upon us (Feb 6-14) and could very well be our last chance before the SE Ridge tries to go full latitude and lock in the 2nd half of Feb. Best shot at something appears to be developing closer to the middle/end of this period and the Great Valentine's Day Storm of 2020 may also in fact be a legit entity if you believe several pieces of guidance. Alot of well-timed players would need to interact but they are at least all showing up on the field. Bowling ball Southern low, PV wobbling thru the 50/50 region, strong arctic hp, northern energy attempting to merge with the big ull. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 ICON at 12z is a SECS for our area for Valentines Day. Not saying its right....it likely isnt. But let's try this one more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICOB at 12z is a SECS for our area for Valentines Day. Not saying its right....it likely isnt. But let's try this one more time. No way. Unless we're inside 48hrs, forget about it. Wasted too much time on this pathetic winter....the writing is on the wall. Better things to do in life than track fantasy potential. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: No way. Unless we're inside 48hrs, forget about it. Wasted too much time on this pathetic winter....the writing is on the wall. Better things to do in life than track fantasy potential. I agree with this statement, they've all looked great at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 26 minutes ago, penndotguy said: I agree with this statement, they've all looked great at this range. Yep. I must agree also. Probably wont work out....again....but nothing else to talk about weather wise tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 This is what it was like if you lived in the Carolina's during the winter of 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 It looks like another bout of heavy rain could be looming for mid/late week. If we keep getting enough of these systems as we move into late winter/early spring that will only build the flooding issues as we move ahead in time. Something to keep an eye on as we move into March/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Get comfortable with cold rain, cause it's and endless onslaught to continue with no end in site. This is making last years winter of azz look pedestrian. The horror, the horror. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 If there are any fans of the weeklies left they need to jump ship after what they were promising a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: Get comfortable with cold rain, cause it's and endless onslaught to continue with no end in site. This is making last years winter of azz look pedestrian. The horror, the horror. Watch the pattern change next month just in time for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Get comfortable with cold rain, cause it's and endless onslaught to continue with no end in site. This is making last years winter of azz look pedestrian. The horror, the horror. I'm just getting sick of the parade of storms at this point. How many months now have been above normal with precipitation? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Watch the pattern change next month just in time for spring. CFS wants a top 10 cold April lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 hours ago, Voyager said: I'm just getting sick of the parade of storms at this point. How many months now have been above normal with precipitation? That's alright, I'm sure next winter we will be in a drought and bitterly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, RedSky said: CFS wants a top 10 cold April lol Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Huh? Posted from today's run in the MA thread, but does it really matter at this range bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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