Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 35 minutes ago, hazwoper said: well, to be fair, the GFS has had some semblance of this for a few days now, although it did lose it in the 06Z today. This is the storm I posted about where the surface depiction didnt match the upper air IMO. Problem with any potential system before the date range I've been barking about is going to be temps. Iceman referenced this the other day...there just isnt deep cold air around to support much snow over the next 10 days or so. Until the PV moves, the central Canada ridge moves out we dont have a connection to a true cold air source. Can we get something to work out before the NAO and PNA start to tango after the first few days of Feb? Sure, with a perfect track and dynamics. But we dont do thread the needle and unicorns too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Problem with any potential system before the date range I've been barking about is going to be temps. Iceman referenced this the other day...there just isnt deep cold air around to support much snow over the next 10 days or so. Until the PV moves, the central Canada ridge moves out we dont have a connection to a true cold air source. Can we get something to work out before the NAO and PNA start to tango after the first few days of Feb? Sure, with a perfect track and dynamics. But we dont do thread the needle and unicorns too well. All true, but as depicted, a storm like that would create its own cold air. But, yes, I don't see it as really at all likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Finally a fantasy popcorn storm! Yes this winter has been that bad. Lol, it is nice to look at, isn't it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Looking forward to wxsim saying 4-6 feet of snow next weekend. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 If memory serves. Doesn't the gfs handle Miller a systems rather poorly? Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 20 minutes ago, Fields27 said: If memory serves. Doesn't the gfs handle Miller a systems rather poorly? Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk The previous version was erratic until about 3 days out. No data to check with the new version since we haven't had one since its been in service full time (almost a year?). Another reason why we need a Miller A, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 42 minutes ago, Fields27 said: If memory serves. Doesn't the gfs handle Miller a systems rather poorly? Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk It's a hybrid on the ECM with northern stream phasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 It's a hybrid on the ECM with northern stream phasing. The mid week system yes. But the super bowl system looks like a true Miller A, correct? My fault for not clarifying. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Fields27 said: The mid week system yes. But the super bowl system looks like a true Miller A, correct? My fault for not clarifying. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Other way around. Euro was a hybrid Miller b for superbowl (isnt going to happen anyway...end backed off even more) and the midweek looks Miller a completely separate from the NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Other way around. Euro was a hybrid Miller b for superbowl (isnt going to happen anyway...end backed off even more) and the midweek looks Miller a completely separate from the NS. Yes the hybrid, but give it a chance i liked this one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, RedSky said: Yes the hybrid, but give it a chance i liked this one lol Should have read ens not end, my typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 19 hours ago, RedSky said: Finally a fantasy popcorn storm! Yes this winter has been that bad. This winter took one look at the "Winter of Azz" last year and said 'Hold my beer!". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Very reminiscent of the late 80's/early 90's where we did that stretch from 86/87 to 92/93 with not much to show for it. At least we're not alone, looks like European and Russian weenies are in the same boat as us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 ICON next weekend says hold everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shu Suzuki Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Another heavy rainstorm for me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/24/2020 at 4:57 PM, CoolHandMike said: Looking forward to wxsim saying 4-6 feet of snow next weekend. It's coming Mike....but remember it is just spitting out what the GFS and NAM are selling.....it is NOT a model.....just a tool. It will swing with every model change which we know this year is major from run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 In my opinion this is by far the best Snowstorm threat so far this season. Now whether it is more white than wet....who knows but a big storm signal is there - as is common with most of the major East Coast events....interesting week ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 0z icon is raising an eyebrow. Suddenly much colder with 2m temps I95 n and w below 32 entire event. Stalls storm near Cape May and is a classic look while getting captured by the ULL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 It's a massive southern branch storm and there is no arctic high to block this, throw in this seasons strong SE ridge this has no shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 13 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's a massive southern branch storm and there is no arctic high to block this, throw in this seasons strong SE ridge this has no shot. I would not say “no shot” this far out. Especially if it is a coastal and bombs out like some runs say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Larry Cosgrove believes chance for a strong Miller A type storm is real for next weekend but is still unsure (as most of us are) on precipitation types but he is leaning towards a lesser probability of frozen near the coast/big cites and going with a "chance" for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 In addition to my post above. Larry Cosgrove seem to think the pattern/models is pointing to another milder month here in February and also doesn't think any kid blocking will be present at least thru most of March. On a positive note, he still believes we will turn colder and have a backloaded winter (his opinion), we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Thanks for all the messages and emails for a WXSIM forecast for next week! Here is the early view (take with the proverbial grain of salt this far out) WXSIM sees a 1" to 3" snow event next Saturday afternoon into the evening for NW Chester County PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Models picking up on a sneaky little system Thursday into Friday. Potential for a few inches of snow for some. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Have been barking about the Feb 6-14 period for quite a while now as being the best pattern we will see so far this year. Key tellies are still there and moving closer and not staying put in la la land. Positive PNA, -EPO, -NAO, neutral to neg AO. Cant get specific about storms BUT the ops are beginning to bark at this period now in addition to the ens means. This period is gaining legs. I will take a 1 week window with 1 or 2 threats. If we can lock the pattern in for longer then that is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Little extreme and probably.wont verify as progged but there is a neg NAO across guidance now with growing support for that feature on the ens means. We can only hope these looks are even somewhat close because they would produce something for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 12z data - WXSIM for the weekend light snow and flurries around midnight on Saturday with a coating of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 @Ralph Wiggum I'm pretty sure you were the one who had said this in the past but isn't the NAVGEM usually too suppressed when it comes to synoptic events? And when it shows an amped solution with the other models being suppressed that it will sometimes lead the way? Is this some weird weenie handbook code? Am I just making it up and misremembering another model? Anyway, the NAVGEM is way further amped and NW than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 39 minutes ago, The Iceman said: @Ralph Wiggum I'm pretty sure you were the one who had said this in the past but isn't the NAVGEM usually too suppressed when it comes to synoptic events? And when it shows an amped solution with the other models being suppressed that it will sometimes lead the way? Is this some weird weenie handbook code? Am I just making it up and misremembering another model? Anyway, the NAVGEM is way further amped and NW than the other models. Sounds good to me! Furthermore, the 12z ICON backs it up. Rooting for the underdogs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Old navgem rule was progressive so yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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