Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: WXSIM with 18z data continues to see a real battle of precip types based almost entirely on relative elevation on Saturday. When the precip is heavy it see S+ as it lightens it's just rain. Temps never fall below freezing at the surface hanging between 32.7-33.7 with 850's just below 0c during the time of heaviest precipitation. WXSIM is back up to around 10" of very wet snow. Really feels like a March type snowstorm. In some ways reminiscent (of course not the amounts) of the March 1958 elevation driven event where just 6 miles up the road at my elevation Morgantown PA recorded 50" between the 19th-21st with 44" falling on the 20th alone with temps just above freezing for most of the event. The 6 days leading up to the event saw temps in the mid to upper 40's and the day after the snow ended went right back up toward the 50's and within 5 days all 50" was gone. You won't see 2" much less 10". WXSIM is a hype machine....is JB behind the scenes? It just seems like a horrible method in tracking storms. When you go from 12" down to 1-2' then back up to 10" something is screwy...and let the ups/downs continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 9 hours ago, Birds~69 said: You won't see 2" much less 10". WXSIM is a hype machine....is JB behind the scenes? It just seems like a horrible method in tracking storms. When you go from 12" down to 1-2' then back up to 10" something is screwy...and let the ups/downs continue. LOL! That made me laugh!! Can you imagine if JB had access to this output? If so he would have no doubt sited it this week....he can always find the snowiest model or outcome!! The WXSIM programmer mainly designed it for forecasting temps....which like last weekend actually outperformed the NWS point and click for my area. The WXSIM steadfastly stuck with temps below freezing while the NWS said 37....Like any program it is only as good as the data it is ingesting....in this case the GFS for longer term and the NAM blended in for shorter term forecasts. Plus like any model when multiple days out it will not be as accurate. When it comes to snow forecasts it will often bounce around especially as it tries to account for my areas relative higher elevation mainly for storms like this upcoming weekend which have the feel of a March storm (which often has big differences over short distances based on just 200 ft of elevation gain etc.) it tries to nail the BL issues and will make a totally different forecast if the BL goes up a degree (like the latest 6z run this AM see below - where it is back to a mix with little accumulation) It should get more consistent as we get within 24 hours. I have had the tool for over 10 years and it is a fun tool for the weather hobbyist and really the only one that let's you make a true in your backyard forecast. But like any tool it is just one I would use if making a forecast....all of our go to forecasts should today and always remain the great team at the NWS in Mount Holly (we are fortunate to have the best office in the USA in my humble opinion!!) Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 WXSIM with 6z data warmed about 1 degree from last forecast - still shows a mix of rain and S+ during heaviest precip but with the slightly warmer temps only a slushy 1/4 inch of snow - maybe we are back to a foot with the 12z GFS and NAM data! Since there is no real snow in the forecast we track WXSIM snow!! See you on the anticline this weekend! Friday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A mix of rain, sleet, and snow likely after midnight. Low 32. Wind chill ranging from 23 to 40. Wind east-southeast around 6 mph in the evening, becoming 13 mph, gusting to 20 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about a quarter inch. Saturday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the afternoon. A mix of rain and snow likely in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. High 40. Wind east-southeast around 15 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. No snow accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 It’s over folks, pack it in till next year. Why do I say this for certain. Because if you can’t get snow in a setup like this on February 1st, then you ain’t getting snow at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 It just looks awful in the long range. I knew the trough/cold would want to center around the mid country and great lakes, but I figured maybe some high latitude blocking could bleed the cold east. Nope. Cold, dry. Warm, wet. Rinse repeat. Maybe March lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 K 6 minutes ago, hazwoper said: It’s over folks, pack it in till next year. Why do I say this for certain. Because if you can’t get snow in a setup like this on February 1st, then you ain’t getting snow at all. If that model was to verify I would bet snow would fall 100 miles NW of that surface low - N and W of philly would snow....but that is in la la land time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 26 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: K If that model was to verify I would bet snow would fall 100 miles NW of that surface low - N and W of philly would snow....but that is in la la land time frame True, but that is why I said I know because in a setup like that for snow not to fall in those locations you mentioned would be simply ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, hazwoper said: True, but that is why I said I know because in a setup like that for snow not to fall in those locations you mentioned would be simply ridiculous Agreed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Here's what I bet happens... We'll waste 3/4th of February, and by then the majority of us will be looking towards warmer weather and spring. Then March 1st will hit, the NAO/AO/EPO will all tank, and we'll get 2-3 weeks of winter threats, half of which fail due to March climo. That pattern stays in place throughout spring though and we stay in the 40's/50's with frequent rain coastals. Then the pattern flips again and we transition right into summer temps. It's almost a lock.... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Here's what I bet happens... We'll waste 3/4th of February, and by then the majority of us will be looking towards warmer weather and spring. Then March 1st will hit, the NAO/AO/EPO will all tank, and we'll get 2-3 weeks of winter threats, half of which fail due to March climo. That pattern stays in place throughout spring though and we stay in the 40's/50's with frequent rain coastals. Then the pattern flips again and we transition right into summer temps. It's almost a lock.... That would be funny if it weren't entirely possible to actually verify like that. It's not like we haven't traveled that road before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 59 minutes ago, Voyager said: That would be funny if it weren't entirely possible to actually verify like that. It's not like we haven't traveled that road before. A long long time ago in a galax....oh wait last year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I can't put it down in words here how much i hate it when early spring rocks with cold and snow. When younger I was good with that but must have gotten old the last 5 years. Naturally now it's a frequent thing, like climate change screwing you on both ends. A graph was recently posted about March on the NYC side the last 5 years, abhorrent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Early March snows are ok, But even then Spring is on our Doorstep and knowing Dec, Jan, Feb are behind us its Kinda depressing to me, I guess we still have February yet and who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I guess this isn't an unpopular opinion, but I'd almost certainly prefer to see snow levels increase in November and December and then relax in February and March. It seems the opposite of that is what's actually happening, however. Are seasons shifting in terms of their place on our traditional calendar, or disappearing altogether? I'm sure this also depends on where you live. The midwest still does quite well with early season snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, jwilson said: I guess this isn't an unpopular opinion, but I'd almost certainly prefer to see snow levels increase in November and December and then relax in February and March. It seems the opposite of that is what's actually happening, however. Are seasons shifting in terms of their place on our traditional calendar, or disappearing altogether? I'm sure this also depends on where you live. The midwest still does quite well with early season snow storms. I feel the exact way you do. I prefer a front loaded winter and then the warm up to spring starting in March. As for the seasons shifting on the calendar, I don't know, but locally, it almost does seem like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 7 hours ago, The Iceman said: Here's what I bet happens... We'll waste 3/4th of February, and by then the majority of us will be looking towards warmer weather and spring. Then March 1st will hit, the NAO/AO/EPO will all tank, and we'll get 2-3 weeks of winter threats, half of which fail due to March climo. That pattern stays in place throughout spring though and we stay in the 40's/50's with frequent rain coastals. Then the pattern flips again and we transition right into summer temps. It's almost a lock.... Disagree respectfully. I've been saying for a bit that things turn for the better sooner than later. I am liking the Feb 7-14 (give or take a day either side) alot and there are strong signals on the ens means and even individual members as well as the cfs weeklies that winter makes its appearance finally. PNA ridge, signs of ridging near the NAO region, breakdown of AK vortex, and signs the AO may even try and tag along for some fun all the while the stj and njet are loading up with disturbances. Sticking to that for now until I see a reason to back down. I've given up on MJO, IOD, QBO, SOI, AAM, and other tellie indices for now and am going back to basics. Looping weeks worth of 500mb charts are actually providing more of an idea of where we are headed as opposed to the computers spitting out index numbers and values. Just my thoughts on that. Those indices are useful but they are not working out for LR forecasts this year nor last. Simplicity rules. The question imho is whether we sustain that pattern thru mid March or it is 1 week and out. Tbd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Guidance is honking for the Jan 30-Feb 3 period. Extremely active flow and PNA ridge developing out West, ridging to the N, strong confluence, and stj undercutting the PNA ridge out west.. No way guidance will get this hashed out for several days but this looks like a solid period for some sort of signficant storm in the East. Definitely has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 WXSIM with 6z data has up to 2" of rain maybe a couple ice pellets at the start at around 4am Saturday AM.....I do see a snow flurry on Tuesday around midnight....keep the faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Guidance is honking for the Jan 30-Feb 3 period. Extremely active flow and PNA ridge developing out West, ridging to the N, strong confluence, and stj undercutting the PNA ridge out west.. No way guidance will get this hashed out for several days but this looks like a solid period for some sort of signficant storm in the East. Definitely has my attention. Not much cold air around in that time period. Would need to take a perfect track in order to get snow out of that imo. It's a very thread the needle type situation. Definitely a threat but with a lack of blocking, we will need perfect timing to get this one home. I anticipate seeing some fantasy runs though. Just not really sold on it yet until more things are hashed out. Would like to see a stronger HP to the north for one. Seasonal trend has been for these storms to hug the coast or ride just inland, so honestly that's what I'm anticipating with this one. I would be much more excited for this one if I lived in central PA. We'll see though, at least it is something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 30 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Not much cold air around in that time period. Would need to take a perfect track in order to get snow out of that imo. It's a very thread the needle type situation. Definitely a threat but with a lack of blocking, we will need perfect timing to get this one home. I anticipate seeing some fantasy runs though. Just not really sold on it yet until more things are hashed out. Would like to see a stronger HP to the north for one. Seasonal trend has been for these storms to hug the coast or ride just inland, so honestly that's what I'm anticipating with this one. I would be much more excited for this one if I lived in central PA. We'll see though, at least it is something to watch. I wouldnt be worrying much about temps on a day 8-10ish threat tbh. It isnt overwhelming cold but just cold enough and primo climo time. There is also ridging just to the N pressing the storm track just underneath us. But this track during prime climo will work. Many were saying too warm at same leads during the ice event last week where we ended up never getting above freezing. Again I would be watching the overall setup and 500 trends which are encouraging for a LR system right now. Feeling good where we are heading as Jan winds down. There is so much energy rolling thru after 120 hours I urge caution getting too caught up in op to op runs right now. Those shortwave wont be sorted out for another 3-4 days at least. Strong potential is what we have right now. This look will work btw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 5 hours ago, greenskeeper said: Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? yes.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 8 hours ago, greenskeeper said: Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Why do you have Murray in you profile picture? Belushi (Bluto) was way better....never thought Murray was funny. Completely overrated. In other news: We're done. It's not going to snow even though WXSIM says 18-24" for all. NFL: Go Chiefs and Big Red....the guy has paid his dues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Another winter of always being 10 days away from being 10 days away. No deep dive here, I keep seeing consistent ridging over east Asia and I know that's a bad look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 On 1/22/2020 at 4:25 PM, jwilson said: I guess this isn't an unpopular opinion, but I'd almost certainly prefer to see snow levels increase in November and December and then relax in February and March. It seems the opposite of that is what's actually happening, however. Are seasons shifting in terms of their place on our traditional calendar, or disappearing altogether? I'm sure this also depends on where you live. The midwest still does quite well with early season snow storms. Completely agree. I know it's taboo but I'll take late Oct snows as well. Once late Feb comes I'm just about done w/winter because March snow, in general, sucks. It's slop usually. From that point on I'm praying for below normal temps for Spring/Summer and looking forward to the next Fall season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Soak it in because it's all down hill from here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 24 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Soak it in because it's all down hill from here... Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 ^ Weather Gods really like F**king with us!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 49 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Soak it in because it's all down hill from here... No other model or ens have anything even remotely close. GEFS and GEPS dont even have a storm. The EPS is meh...about 20% of the members with a storm that effects us. Euro is too weak with the NS where all other models blast the strong sw thru the flow and dont amplify. Waiting for the NAO ridge and the pattern development after this. Cold finally reestablishing as the AK vort get beat up and we should start reaping the benefits Feb 7-14 give or take a day. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Finally a fantasy popcorn storm! Yes this winter has been that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: No other model or ens have anything even remotely close. GEFS and GEPS dont even have a storm. The EPS is meh...about 20% of the members with a storm that effects us. Euro is too weak with the NS where all other models blast the strong sw thru the flow and dont amplify. Waiting for the NAO ridge and the pattern development after this. Cold finally reestablishing as the AK vort get beat up and we should start reaping the benefits Feb 7-14 give or take a day. Patience. well, to be fair, the GFS has had some semblance of this for a few days now, although it did lose it in the 06Z today. This is the storm I posted about where the surface depiction didnt match the upper air IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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