Fields27 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Well I've yet to ever start a topic but with the winter we are having how can it hurt? Plus all the topics we have open are "obs" threads. Anyway the 6z gfs was a big step in the right direction for the weekend storm. Very close for the I95 crew. Nw burbs cash in. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 850s are AN as the system approaches across the board on guidance. Antecedent airmass is stale cold and flow is off the ocean from the ESE. I can see this possibly being something for higher elevations well inland but the I95 crew is going to miss out on this one. Maybe some wet flakes mixed in towards the end. Certainly time for changes but these situations where East of the fall line is hoping for cold air wrapping in faster or a system manufacturing it's own cold air seldom work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 GFS is wacky. Very unorthodox 850 temp progression. Not sure I recall seeing 850s cool like this with a ripping SE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Let's do this again - latest WXSIM for NW Chester County PA with 12z NAM and 6z GFS for next weekend- this could be a great example of an elevation driven event inland of the I95 corridor - not cold but just cold enough especially with a bit of elevation for a wet snow event....this will change a bit but I do believe this is something to keep an eye on as the week moves on Saturday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and rain likely in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High 34. Wind east around 10 mph, gusting to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy. A mix of snow and rain likely in the evening, then a chance of a mix of snow and rain after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill as low as 23. Wind north around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Keeping a close eye on this one as I'll be in VT and NH for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 12z ECM now drives the primary into eastern PA. Now it's a bad track in addition to no cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 WXSIM with 12z GFS and NAM now down to "only" 6" to 10" of wet snow (keep in mind as someone questioned me on the last one - it's accuracy at this range is suspect at best - it simply takes a blend of the gfs and nam and makes a forecast based on local factors (elevation etc.) - verification will of course not be this... Friday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight. A slight chance of a mix of sleet, rain, and snow after midnight. Low 31. Wind east-northeast near calm in the evening, becoming 4 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Saturday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and rain likely. Breezy. High 35. Wind chill ranging from 22 to 27. Wind east-northeast around 12 mph, gusting to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow accumulation 6 to 10 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. Patchy light fog. A mix of rain and snow likely in the evening, then a chance of a mix of snow and rain after midnight. Low 31. Wind chill ranging from 23 to 29. Wind east-northeast around 7 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming west-northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 How is WXSIM being run with NAM data when the weekend rain storm is beyond 84hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Good luck with that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 I'm still trying to get an answer from @Albedoman going on 4 days now on where the foot of snow is falling for groundhogs day. Is this the storm? Is this part 2 of the MLK back to back events with glaciers and icebergs in the streets? Or is there another system we are overlooking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm still trying to get an answer from @Albedoman going on 4 days now on where the foot of snow is falling for groundhogs day. Is this the storm? Is this part 2 of the MLK back to back events with glaciers and icebergs in the streets? Or is there another system we are overlooking? It's on the GFS fantasy maps a week ago, beyond bad performance on this last third of January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 hour ago, RedSky said: How is WXSIM being run with NAM data when the weekend rain storm is beyond 84hrs truncates NAM and all GFS once past NAM run window.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Good luck with that. Steve already down to only 6" to 10" trend is not our friend...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 took a deeper looks at the WXSIM forecast output when it thinks it is snowing....has winds ENE and temps nearing but just below 0c at 850mb....it will change with 18z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 Well 18z is weaker initially with the low and also has a worse track. Doesn't wrap in nearly as much cold air. Nice cold January coastal rainstorm. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 ruh roh! WXSIM trend is not our friend....with 18z down to 1" to 2"..... Saturday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain likely in the morning, then a mix of rain, snow, and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill around 25. Wind east around 10 mph, gusting to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A mix of rain and snow likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of snow and rain after midnight. Low 31. Wind chill as low as 24. Wind north around 9 mph, gusting to 15 mph, in the evening, becoming west-northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. No snow accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Wow, went from 12"+ down to around 1" in 12 hours on wxsim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wow, went from 12"+ down to around 1" in 12 hours on wxsim. Truncate the NAM and you might get nuclear winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 It sounds like DT (WxRisk) is about to throw in the towel on winter is his new "This Week in Weather" video 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I think we should start talking more about wind, coastal flooding, heavy rain/flooding with some of these storms on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 The WXSIM still shows 1" to 2" of snow here at around 685 ft but it's battle regarding precip type when heavy it's snow and rain when lighter. Looks like a typical March event with precip type being heavily elevation dependent. I could see spots under 400 ft with nada / 2" over 600 ft /up to 3"+ over 700 ft in the philly burbs and NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 A typical March event.....in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Second week in Feb (7th-14th give or take a day or two) is the next shot at a brief but very favorable pattern. Probably the best I've seen hinted at in long while. Yeah, we know the usual caveats 2 weeks out etc etc but this one is gaining some legs. I've also said beware the Great VD Storm of 2020. NAO finally goes negative, PNA goes positive, AO neutral to slight neg, ns disturbances become a parade, some hints of energy undercutting the PNA. As we get into the 2nd half of winter past few years some of the HL blocking looks in the LR have seemed to actually verify moreso than earlier in the season. If the NAO, AO, and PNA come together as I think is being signaled on ens and weeklies and the MJO doesnt spoil the fun, we should have an ok 7-10 day stretch at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Has there ever been a winter that was wall to wall hostile for snow that wasn't a super nino/nina? Seems like even in our worst of winters, we manage to pull out a 2 week period of winter at some point. Look at our recent bad winters, 98-99, 01-02, 07-08, and even 11-12 all had 2 week windows where we managed to scrape together a decent events(3-6") or 2. I would be pretty surprised if we don't get a similar period in February. I think it's a lock though this will finish as a below average winter, but I think we manage to at least hit double digits total wise. Would be pretty remarkable if we see a wall to wall snowless winter in a netural ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 18 weeks till Memorial day! BRING IT! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 35 weeks till fall! BRING IT! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: 35 weeks till fall! BRING IT! You got it! I would pay a pretty penny to skip late Spring and all Summer. I'm already dreading those HHH days with no end in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 6 weeks till the March snows- BRING IT! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Striped bass/shad/herring run on the Delaware River in the snow.....again. Cant wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 WXSIM with 18z data continues to see a real battle of precip types based almost entirely on relative elevation on Saturday. When the precip is heavy it see S+ as it lightens it's just rain. Temps never fall below freezing at the surface hanging between 32.7-33.7 with 850's just below 0c during the time of heaviest precipitation. WXSIM is back up to around 10" of very wet snow. Really feels like a March type snowstorm. In some ways reminiscent (of course not the amounts) of the March 1958 elevation driven event where just 6 miles up the road at my elevation Morgantown PA recorded 50" between the 19th-21st with 44" falling on the 20th alone with temps just above freezing for most of the event. The 6 days leading up to the event saw temps in the mid to upper 40's and the day after the snow ended went right back up toward the 50's and within 5 days all 50" was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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