NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: That’s 850’s. The surface temps very iffy. 983 bombing low on a cold and snowy bias model that only gets about a inch in nyc! That should tell you a lot about the airmass. That's caused also because of the lack of precip less then 1/2 inch - this GFS precip map is not accurate with a 983 just off the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 @NEG NAO @NYCweatherNOW Incorrect. Nyc gets close to .45 and has temps in the upper 30’s. The airmass is putrid 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @NEG NAO @NYCweatherNOW Incorrect. Nyc gets close to .45 and has temps in the upper 30’s. The airmass is putrid and just west of there much less - plus this output this far out is not worth anything especially on that model. a borderline airmass can still produce snow this time of year - its still way to early to get into specific types and amounts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Take a break feen. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 From Mt. Holly afternoon AFD: THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE DISCREPANCY LOOKS TO BEGIN THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS OPENS THIS LOW UP AND PULLS IT EAST FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAT ABSORBS THE ENERGY AND TAKES IT FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING AND TRACKING NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF HAS ONLY A WEAK LOW HEADING TOWARDS BERMUDA. THE CMC CURRENTLY FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. MODEL PREDICTABILITY LOOKS LOW HERE THOUGH AND HAVE KEPT POPS CHANCE AT BEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. Upton AFD: BY NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TROUGH, AND THUS DEPTH OF SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKS REMAIN UNCLEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND, WITH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION LOW AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mersky said: One thing you will NEVER see meteorologists do is post a 159 hour temp profile from ANY model. I know you think you know your stuff but clearly you still have a lot to learn. And gfs thermal profiles are awful to begin with. Furthermore, you have a high pressure sliding east that is adding insult to injury to a already awful airmass. Yes, lots to learn from your posts last weekend on how this split flow look will be cold enough for the northeast. It’s only 40 degrees in Toronto currently. How are temps in North Carolina? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Barman49 said: I like your posts but didn't it snow last weekend? It did by me. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk I was referring to a conversation in the January thread about how this past week temps would not support snow. More specifically with the ULL yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I was referring to a conversation in the January thread about how this past week temps would not support snow. More specifically with the ULL yesterday. Gotcha. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 12Z EPS 850s are fine throughout next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: .12Z EPS 850s are fine throughout next weekend These are the 2m anomaly along with the idv that show either a interior snow hit or late phase. If you go off the low location more then a few show a perfect track for the coast. So why doesn’t it show more hits? Imo it’s the airmass with a high sliding off the coast/lakes low/ and late phases with northern stream. We have a long list of things that point against snow for the coast. And even with some of the models that show hits it’s not 100% snow or we are depending on dynamics to overcome temps. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: These are the 2m anomaly along with the idv that show either a interior snow hit or late phase. If you go off the low location more then a few show a perfect track for the coast. So why doesn’t it show more hits? Imo it’s the airmass with a high sliding off the coast/lakes low/ and late phases with northern stream. We have a long list of things that point against snow for the coast. And even with some of the models that show hits it’s not 100% snow or we are depending on dynamics to overcome temps. Big red flag the ensembles are west of the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Big red flag the ensembles are west of the op. Lots of spread in low placement, yes. But that doesn’t change the laundry list of problems that argue against snow for the metro area. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Lots of spread in low placement, yes. But that doesn’t change the laundry list of problems that argue against snow for the metro area. This is the best setup so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 GFS is a solid hit for many on this subforum 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 23 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Lots of spread in low placement, yes. But that doesn’t change the laundry list of problems that argue against snow for the metro area. High slides east and lakes low warms the bl. 18z Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Gfs is a decent hit but...east of previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Gfs is a decent hit but...east of previous run. with a lack of cold air, 18z gfs was prob best case scenario for the coast. More west and they torch. East a miss. lots of factors. late phase this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: GFS is a solid hit for many on this subforum Huh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Huh? yes 1-3 is a solid hit this season. stop looking verbatim. storm track looked good that run. like mentioned before, we dont have cold air. need it to work out just right. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Not a lot of wiggle room. 4 of the last 5 gfs runs have a similar track, so that’s a plus. But there is a lot of time and dr. No to contend with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Snowfall maps are not effective at this range. 7.5 days? 2 days maybe... its not not a world beater anyway with a 990 LP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I am just concentrating on the track of the LP - if you are trying to figure out boundary layers and trying to be specific about precip types this far out - good luck with that ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, NEG NAO said: I am just concentrating on the track of the LP - if you are trying to figure out boundary layers and trying to be specific about precip types this far out - good luck with that ! Exactly Storm track then temps as we get closer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 The airmass honestly isn't that bad. If you can get this under light precipitation, you can certainly cool the column in a more dynamic storm. Especially if you can an idea phase from the northern stream, it's always tough for things to align perfectly for us but it won't take all that much here to get a solid snowstorm out of this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: GFS is a solid hit for many on this subforum Wrong forum, this is the NYC metro, not Maine / New England forums. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: High slides east and lakes low warms the bl. 18z Gfs And still gave the coast some snow Temps will not be an issue if we get a strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Lol yes Maine gets whacked. I would not celebrate yet if I were them. Dr no doesn’t even sniff them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I see Allsnow laughing but its the truth.Who cares about temps this far out ? Gfs sucks with thermals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, cleetussnow said: Lol yes Maine gets whacked. I would not celebrate yet if I were them. Dr no doesn’t even sniff them Dr No has been awful this winter Cmc just had a big upgrade 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, mob1 said: The airmass honestly isn't that bad. If you can get this under light precipitation, you can certainly cool the column in a more dynamic storm. Especially if you can an idea phase from the northern stream, it's always tough for things to align perfectly for us but it won't take all that much here to get a solid snowstorm out of this. exactly - this track is perfect for us on FEB 1st- 2nd too ! With cold enough air in the vicinity ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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