Mid to Long Range Threats

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

No point posting these anymore

Winter is over

People are interested in weather in general. 

[Brian5671]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No point posting these anymore

Winter is over

yesterday you said mid April, now it's over?    You're bi ploar on this topic!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

16 hours ago, rclab said:

1831 Blizzard: Philadelphia 24 inches, NYC 18-20 inches, Boston 24 inches. Even in the early 19th century NYC appears to be under measured. I guess now it’s a tradition. As always .....

The proof of their under measurements even back in the 1800’s, and as you say what is now an almost 200 year tradition in NYC is the pictures of Manhattan after the blizzard of 1888.

21 inches? Ridiculous, more like 36 which is what they measured in Brooklyn. MJO812 would have been in paradise. 

[Yanksfan]

32 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The proof of their under measurements even back in the 1800’s, and as you say what is now an almost 200 year tradition in NYC is the pictures of Manhattan after the blizzard of 1888.

21 inches? Ridiculous, more like 36 which is what they measured in Brooklyn. MJO812 would have been in paradise. 

Numerous locations in Jersey reported 40+, While areas in NY state were 50+! By far the greatest snowstorm to hit our area in recorded history. I can only imagine this forum if an impending storm of that magnitude was approaching. The server would crash for sure.

[LibertyBell]

On 3/4/2020 at 6:31 PM, gravitylover said:

That wouldn't be all bad would it?  

Yeah yeah and that's one the top 3 storms of the last 25 years here for the sheer power it displayed and the destruction it wrought here. I rarely get scared by weather, that one did it.

I still dont remember why it was such a big bust here.... a foot of snow was predicted lol- they even had more snow south of us!

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/4/2020 at 10:29 PM, Barman49 said:

At least they have an excuse with that one technically it was still being tested hadn't replaced the old GFS yet. But yeah it looks like they made a mistake with which product they decided to go with at this point.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk
 

I dont know, I think the 95 last October was way more impressive lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/5/2020 at 4:39 PM, bluewave said:

The surfers will love it. This is the first hurricane force low SE of the BM in a while.

Our confidence that the winds will increase to 
hurricane force over the northern outer NT2 zones remains above 
average, and we also have high confidence with widespread gale 
and storm warnings.

are these storms shrinking in size?  I remember in the past when coastal storms followed this kind of track we'd get hit with a significant snowstorm.  Perhaps storms are becoming more intense but also more concentrated (developing properties more like tropical systems)?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Numerous locations in Jersey reported 40+, While areas in NY state were 50+! By far the greatest snowstorm to hit our area in recorded history. I can only imagine this forum if an impending storm of that magnitude was approaching. The server would crash for sure.

and with the way we measure snow now this would have been 40"+ everywhere.  Remember back in the 1800s snow was measured after settling.  I wonder if there is some way to calculate what a 32" snowstorm measured at the end of the event would have been had it been measured every 6 hours to account for settling?

 

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Perhaps somewhat related: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/05/clickbait-weather-forecasts-social-media/?itid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_cwg-clickbait-410pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

From the story:

On Wednesday, for example, a number of Facebook pages shared a forecast from the American GFS model showing heavy snow from Washington to Boston next Thursday, eight days into the future, when such predictions are not reliable. Other, more accurate models showed no such snow threat.

But with that shaky forecast propagating through social media, several meteorologists felt compelled to confront it.

“I will not buy into the hype. I will not post a phantom map,” posted meteorologist Justin Berk, who provides forecasts for Maryland on Facebook.

Extreme ideas or solutions should be treated as unlikely to occur unless there is strong evidence for them. That applies to hype about stratospheric warming events, extreme GFS snowfall forecasts, and extreme analogs.

The pushback from the meteorological community is welcome. 

what about Jan 2016?  I think that was a Cat 4 snowstorm and had they accounted for the 30"+ that fell from Harrisburg to Allentown to Morris Plains to JFK, it would have ranked as the third highest storm on the NESIS scale, right behind March 1993 and Jan 1996.  Come to think of it Jan 1996 should be top of the scale for the megalopolis.  Feb 1983 should be up there too.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

what about Jan 2016?  I think that was a Cat 4 snowstorm and had they accounted for the 30"+ that fell from Harrisburg to Allentown to Morris Plains to JFK, it would have ranked as the third highest storm on the NESIS scale, right behind March 1993 and Jan 1996.  Come to think of it Jan 1996 should be top of the scale for the megalopolis.  Feb 1983 should be up there too.

 

 

 

January 1996: Snowfall in Boston was 18.2"

January 2016: Snowfall in Boston was 6.1"

[golfer07840]

9 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The proof of their under measurements even back in the 1800’s, and as you say what is now an almost 200 year tradition in NYC is the pictures of Manhattan after the blizzard of 1888.

21 inches? Ridiculous, more like 36 which is what they measured in Brooklyn. MJO812 would have been in paradise. 

I just googled NYC blizzard 1888 to see pictures. Holy cow, that's crazy. 

What I'd like to know is, was there a quick warm up right after? If so, the flooding would have been tremendous. Because I recall winter of 93/94, it either snowed or iced every Wednesday for like 6 weeks straight.  Finally one day we hit like 60 something and it just flooded. 

Can't imagine NYC in 1888 being able to handle that.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

are these storms shrinking in size?  I remember in the past when coastal storms followed this kind of track we'd get hit with a significant snowstorm.  Perhaps storms are becoming more intense but also more concentrated (developing properties more like tropical systems)?

 

This is just a continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks of the last two winters. It’s  the first two winters in a row since the1990’s without at least a NESIS 1 snowstorm. But at least this is the strongest low to pass SE of the BM in a few years.
 

 

 

[gravitylover]

9 hours ago, golfer07840 said:

I just googled NYC blizzard 1888 to see pictures. Holy cow, that's crazy. 

What I'd like to know is, was there a quick warm up right after? If so, the flooding would have been tremendous. Because I recall winter of 93/94, it either snowed or iced every Wednesday for like 6 weeks straight.  Finally one day we hit like 60 something and it just flooded. 

Can't imagine NYC in 1888 being able to handle that.

Well, I can tell you what it's like when 17" falls on warm ground then melts within 24 hours. Fortunately it rained for a few hours before it changed to snow so it loosened up the surface, then add the weight of the goop that piled up and things got kind of slidey. Steep hillsides sagged, road cuts sloughed and even the steep landscaping stuff in my neighborhood shifted as the snow melted. With the 40+ inch numbers they got here in the 1888 storm I can only imagine the chaos it caused. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 1996: Snowfall in Boston was 18.2"

January 2016: Snowfall in Boston was 6.1"

The NYC figure of  20.2 for the January 1996 storm is just another in a long line of classic under measured storms. They didn't even take any measurements after the last couple of bands came through which was after they threw out the 20.2 figure that had no basis in what actually fell which was in the 24-28 inch range in Manhattan. This of course was during the era where the Central Park Zookeeper took the measurements. Rumor during the period was one of the monkeys was doing the actual measuring.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

10 hours ago, golfer07840 said:

I just googled NYC blizzard 1888 to see pictures. Holy cow, that's crazy. 

What I'd like to know is, was there a quick warm up right after? If so, the flooding would have been tremendous. Because I recall winter of 93/94, it either snowed or iced every Wednesday for like 6 weeks straight.  Finally one day we hit like 60 something and it just flooded. 

Can't imagine NYC in 1888 being able to handle that.

There was no sudden warm up, different time, different climate. Snow actually stuck around in NYC back then, not like the 2000's, big storms (except for the last two years) and mild winters.

The month of March 1888 the average temperature in NYC was 29.9° for the entire month. Consider that against the current January 30 year average in NYC is 32.6°.

Also consider that it's been over two years since NYC had a month that averaged below 32° which was January 2018 at 31.7° and before that you'd have to go all the way back to February 2015 23.9°. Several high impact snow storms mask the truth, but for NYC it's been a horrible stretch of above normal and way above normal winter temperatures.

[CIK62]

Now the GFS is going for March 22 for a few inches.   It forget about the HECS it had near the 12th.     Ironically this would be a repeat of the 1998 non-performance between Jan. 18 and that date, in the snow department.

At least all that toilet paper that is being hoarded could be used for something-----printout paper for these crazed outputs----then for the intended use.

[donsutherland1]

On February 29 and March 4, the GFS showed sizable to historic snowfalls for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions for the March 11-13 timeframe.

 

That period ended with the mercury topping out at 70° in New York City. No snow was recorded in the Middle Atlantic or southern New England regions.

In sum, the GFS scenarios were likely a product of the significant cold bias that has plagued that model's extended range forecasts, a bias that has been particularly notable since the FV3 core was introduced, delayed, and then implemented.

[LibertyBell]

On 3/13/2020 at 9:42 PM, donsutherland1 said:

On February 29 and March 4, the GFS showed sizable to historic snowfalls for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions for the March 11-13 timeframe.

 

That period ended with the mercury topping out at 70° in New York City. No snow was recorded in the Middle Atlantic or southern New England regions.

In sum, the GFS scenarios were likely a product of the significant cold bias that has plagued that model's extended range forecasts, a bias that has been particularly notable since the FV3 core was introduced, delayed, and then implemented.

Don why dont they remove the new core....and what was the reason for its introduction?  "If it's not broke dont fix it."

 

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don why dont they remove the new core....and what was the reason for its introduction?  "If it's not broke dont fix it."

 

They almost certainly won’t. A sort of sunk cost fallacy appears to be driving things. The issues may eventually be resolved, but by then the other global models will have been improved even more and the loss of confidence in the GFS will be greater than might otherwise have been the case. The legacy product exists. Transitioning the legacy model to 4D-Var initialization would take about two years (length of time the ECMWF took in making the transition) would probably be a far more constructive course.

[LibertyBell]

On 3/15/2020 at 8:49 AM, donsutherland1 said:

They almost certainly won’t. A sort of sunk cost fallacy appears to be driving things. The issues may eventually be resolved, but by then the other global models will have been improved even more and the loss of confidence in the GFS will be greater than might otherwise have been the case. The legacy product exists. Transitioning the legacy model to 4D-Var initialization would take about two years (length of time the ECMWF took in making the transition) would probably be a far more constructive course.

Yes that would be a far better route to take!  I would also like them to incorporate some of the tools we use for long range forecasting, like analogs.  Many of us saw this kind of of a winter coming early on.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/6/2020 at 7:25 PM, donsutherland1 said:

January 1996: Snowfall in Boston was 18.2"

January 2016: Snowfall in Boston was 6.1"

I think Feb 83 and PD 2 were closer to Jan 1996?

 

[donsutherland1]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think Feb 83 and PD 2 were closer to Jan 1996?

 

During the 1983 blizzard, Boston, New York City, and Washington, DC received less than 20" snow. During PD2, both NYC and Washington, DC received under 20" snow.

[uncle W]

I video taped 1983 and 1996 and 1983 looks like my block got a little more than 1996...1983 had less time to compact when it ended...

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

During the 1983 blizzard, Boston, New York City, and Washington, DC received less than 20" snow. During PD2, both NYC and Washington, DC received under 20" snow.

NYC might have been undermeasuring in both cases.  JFK received 26 inches in PD2 and 22 inches if I recall correctly in Feb 83.  JFK should be considered part of NYC (I believe the highest total of all three NYC locations should be taken as the official snowfall total during snowstorms.)

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, uncle W said:

I video taped 1983 and 1996 and 1983 looks like my block got a little more than 1996...1983 had less time to compact when it ended...

Central Park undermeasured both storms and PD2 also.

 

[gravitylover]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

NYC might have been undermeasuring in both cases.  JFK received 26 inches in PD2 and 22 inches if I recall correctly in Feb 83.  JFK should be considered part of NYC (I believe the highest total of all three NYC locations should be taken as the official snowfall total during snowstorms.)

 

I think part of why the totals in PD2 varied around the region because of the sleet that was mixed in at times. I got a few hours of sleet in the middle of it and the snowpack settled at least 6", more on southerly exposures where the sleet was driven into it rather than just fell on top. I know though that some friends further SE in CT didn't get the sleet as badly as I did.

[rclab]

12 hours ago, uncle W said:

I video taped 1983 and 1996 and 1983 looks like my block got a little more than 1996...1983 had less time to compact when it ended...

Unc, I remember watching the cute snow man measure disappear completely in the back yard. I don’t believe it was drift related and the head of the snowman was above the last measure when was 24 inches. then again, what do I know I’m not a CPK zoo keeper. As always....

[MJO812]

Interior areas should continue to watch next week.

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Interior areas should continue to watch next week.

Maybe interior northern New England....

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe interior northern New England....

Still trolling?