Barman49 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Or just make it to show up to 84 hr like the NAM.Then to me it's useless. The only reason to look at the GFS is its long range. Maybe cut it down to 7 days. But if it only went to 84 it is kind of pointless. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9503 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 hour ago, golfer07840 said: The real question is, will we hit 70 before March 20th? Absolutely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 On 2/29/2020 at 9:21 AM, Brian5671 said: Good move-look at all the time you've saved lol. Yep, I wasted so much time on those videos and reading his nonsense overhyped stuff lol. I was thinking about something, outside of strong to super el ninos, when have we gotten less than 10 inches of snow? I can only think of this season and 2001-02. I forgot how much NYC got in 2011-12, but it must have been more than this since they started off the season with the Octosnowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 On 2/29/2020 at 9:38 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Elaborate, on board with what? We are going to need an intense low in just the right position to draw in cold air for any chance at the coast It's going to be a new class of snowstorm that's been quite common this season- the Labrador Retriever ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: I’ve moved on to just wanting spring weather (although with our luck it’ll be an awful backdoor season too). Winter’s been dead to me for a month now when the hope for any change to the AO, NAO, roaring Pacific Jet, MJO, Bueller, anything for the better ended. Nothing of any significance will happen here until that meaningfully changes and now we’re into March and the hill gets steeper every day. Those big storms last night were the first sign of spring I've seen....or has it been with us all along?! It feels like fall skipped to spring a few months ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I actually want this pattern to continue through June-would lessen the backdoor/onshore flow potential I'd love dry westerly winds all spring interspersed with evening t-storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 hours ago, HailMan06 said: Might as well use the Lesotho model. What does the Iraqi model say? even that upside down model has to be better than this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Jacob brooklyn said: Early april fools joke?? please no April 1997 repeats. we got 1-2 in that "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 4 hours ago, Barman49 said: They need to stop running the GFS. It'll probably still be showing snow 7-10 days out in July. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 10-7-18 may have been the best fantasy FV3 out of season snow so far. That would have been quite a feat with 80 degree temperatures. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-10-06 68 63 2018-10-07 79 67 2018-10-08 74 64 2018-10-09 77 66 2018-10-10 80 71 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 4 hours ago, Barman49 said: They need to stop running the GFS. It'll probably still be showing snow 7-10 days out in July. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk That wouldn't be all bad would it? 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: please no April 1997 repeats. we got 1-2 in that "storm" Yeah yeah and that's one the top 3 storms of the last 25 years here for the sheer power it displayed and the destruction it wrought here. I rarely get scared by weather, that one did it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 10-7-18 may have been the best fantasy FV3 out of season snow so far. That would have been quite a feat with 80 degree temperatures. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-10-06 68 63 2018-10-07 79 67 2018-10-08 74 64 2018-10-09 77 66 2018-10-10 80 71 At least they have an excuse with that one technically it was still being tested hadn't replaced the old GFS yet. But yeah it looks like they made a mistake with which product they decided to go with at this point. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 5 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Euro has several inches now for SNE. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Gfs gives the cape some love with the coastal low. I wish we had more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs gives the cape some love with the coastal low. I wish we had more time. more time for disappointment? Forget it, let's move on and forget this disaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: more time for disappointment? Forget it, let's move on and forget this disaster Are you looking at the models ? 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Are you looking at the models ? Nope. No need, it's the same ol story-what ever it's showing will be a cutter or rain. Pattern has not changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Nope. No need, it's the same ol story-what ever it's showing will be a cutter or rain. Pattern has not changed. I guess we’re going to hype 3/12 - 3/13 into a fantasy snowstorm now. Broken record for the past 5 months now. Wash, rinse, repeat. I’m expecting Bill Murray to come out any minute to “I got you babe” playing on the radio. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Are you looking at the models ? He's unfortunately right. It's inevitable this year. The 'threat' for next week is slowly whittling to white rain or plain rain as well on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, romba said: He's unfortunately right. It's inevitable this year. The 'threat' for next week is slowly whittling to white rain or plain rain as well on the GFS. Yep. It never was a “threat” to begin with and it’s not going to magically turn into one either. Just like tomorrow night into Saturday, another total non event.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Looks right, 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Nam keeps shifting west with the coastal low. Close but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Nam keeps shifting west with the coastal low. Close but no cigar. The surfers will love it. This is the first hurricane force low SE of the BM in a while. Our confidence that the winds will increase to hurricane force over the northern outer NT2 zones remains above average, and we also have high confidence with widespread gale and storm warnings. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 On 3/4/2020 at 11:59 AM, donsutherland1 said: The 3/4/2020 run of the 12z showed what would be an unprecedented snowstorm. The model, using the more "conservative" 10:1 ratio, showed 20" or more snow in Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. The closest storm to such a solution since regular recordkeeping began in the 19th century was the February 2003 President's Day snowstorm: The closest storm that includes the pre-National Weather Service era was the January 14-16, 1831 "Great Atlantic Snowstorm." That historic blizzard dumped 2 feet of snow in Philadelphia, 18"-20" in New York City, and around 2 feet in Boston. Almost certainly, one can expect widespread chatter on Social Media, but such a solution is highly unlikely, if not all but improbable. First, historic March snowstorms that brought 8" or more snow to all of the aforementioned cities typically had a much more expansive cold air mass and much colder air mass available to them. Second, the cold associated with the February 2003 snowstorm was severe even for January. Third, the GFS is alone in depicting what would be an almost unprecedented snowstorm. And a major caveat applies: "Several individual case studies illustrate the model still exhibits a cold bias and may produce excessive snow in the medium range." https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pns19-09gfs_v15_1.pdf Perhaps somewhat related: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/05/clickbait-weather-forecasts-social-media/?itid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_cwg-clickbait-410pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans From the story: On Wednesday, for example, a number of Facebook pages shared a forecast from the American GFS model showing heavy snow from Washington to Boston next Thursday, eight days into the future, when such predictions are not reliable. Other, more accurate models showed no such snow threat. But with that shaky forecast propagating through social media, several meteorologists felt compelled to confront it. “I will not buy into the hype. I will not post a phantom map,” posted meteorologist Justin Berk, who provides forecasts for Maryland on Facebook. Extreme ideas or solutions should be treated as unlikely to occur unless there is strong evidence for them. That applies to hype about stratospheric warming events, extreme GFS snowfall forecasts, and extreme analogs. The pushback from the meteorological community is welcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Perhaps somewhat related: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/05/clickbait-weather-forecasts-social-media/?itid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_cwg-clickbait-410pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans From the story: On Wednesday, for example, a number of Facebook pages shared a forecast from the American GFS model showing heavy snow from Washington to Boston next Thursday, eight days into the future, when such predictions are not reliable. Other, more accurate models showed no such snow threat. But with that shaky forecast propagating through social media, several meteorologists felt compelled to confront it. “I will not buy into the hype. I will not post a phantom map,” posted meteorologist Justin Berk, who provides forecasts for Maryland on Facebook. Extreme ideas or solutions should be treated as unlikely to occur unless there is strong evidence for them. That applies to hype about stratospheric warming events, extreme GFS snowfall forecasts, and extreme analogs. The pushback from the meteorological community is welcome. Maybe they should halt the online availability of the longer range GFS and GEFS forecasts until they figure out a cold bias fix. We could probably do very well with the Euro, UKMET, NAM, and HRRR. The GFS MOS products within 120 hrs have haven’t been too bad. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 Weeklies torch directly into April 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies torch directly into April The monthly forecast also has a much warmer than normal March across much of the nation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 Possible top ten warmest March? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Perhaps somewhat related: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/05/clickbait-weather-forecasts-social-media/?itid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_cwg-clickbait-410pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans From the story: On Wednesday, for example, a number of Facebook pages shared a forecast from the American GFS model showing heavy snow from Washington to Boston next Thursday, eight days into the future, when such predictions are not reliable. Other, more accurate models showed no such snow threat. But with that shaky forecast propagating through social media, several meteorologists felt compelled to confront it. “I will not buy into the hype. I will not post a phantom map,” posted meteorologist Justin Berk, who provides forecasts for Maryland on Facebook. Extreme ideas or solutions should be treated as unlikely to occur unless there is strong evidence for them. That applies to hype about stratospheric warming events, extreme GFS snowfall forecasts, and extreme analogs. The pushback from the meteorological community is welcome. 1831 Blizzard: Philadelphia 24 inches, NYC 18-20 inches, Boston 24 inches. Even in the early 19th century NYC appears to be under measured. I guess now it’s a tradition. As always ..... 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 8 hours ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies torch directly into April No point posting these anymore Winter is over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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