MJO812 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 3/1/2020 at 3:24 PM, NEG NAO said: 12Z EPS looks better then OP On 3/1/2020 at 11:48 PM, SnowFeen1 said: Sick run for eastern cape on the cmc Even nyc and especially Long Island get in the fun On 3/2/2020 at 12:41 AM, NEG NAO said: Ukie on board On 3/2/2020 at 7:30 AM, Rtd208 said: On 3/2/2020 at 8:24 AM, Allsnow said: Fails 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 3 hours ago, PB-99 said: I know you`re looking at this one already. Don`t lie.... Well it does have Friday the 13th going for it or is that against it, ah well .... As always ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Congrats interior on the gfs at 207 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Congrats interior on the gfs at 207 hours wow just 10 days away! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 9 hours ago, gravitylover said: You obviously live a paved life At this point in the year a heavy wet snow will do nothing other than make mud, lots of MUD. This ruins most outdoor activities other than walking on the sidewalk (nearest one of those to me is almost 2 miles away), it wipes out the chance to get the garden going early so we can eat fresh food that's good for us and it destroys my business and puts my income off until June. If you want to see snow go find it, stop hoping for an event that will do nothing more than disrupt the lives of the other couple of million people that live in the area outside of your little Brooklyn/NYC paved and concrete world. Sorry but this is a little harsh. Everybody has their preferences so if Anthony wants to see snow falling from the sky even if it's white rain and causes some inconvenience for some people, why should he get shit for it? Personally, I'm hoping for an early spring. The earlier the better. The few days before this one were glorious, makes you feel alive when the warmth and sun hits you after a few months of winter even a warm winter like this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Eventually it will snow again (probably next winter) and this persistent forecasting will not work. Definitely a winter of..."Go with the flow" and " Don't fight the pattern" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 40 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Sorry but this is a little harsh. Everybody has their preferences so if Anthony wants to see snow falling from the sky even if it's white rain and causes some inconvenience for some people, why should he get shit for it? Personally, I'm hoping for an early spring. The earlier the better. The few days before this one were glorious, makes you feel alive when the warmth and sun hits you after a few months of winter even a warm winter like this one. The kid needs it sometimes It's nothing personal, I'd feed it to pretty much anyone that kept droning on like that. If it was up to me there would be snow on the ground from mid November to Easter but in a dud year like this one just get it over with, the mud has already been a problem and we don't need more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 WARNING: STORM IS TRENDING WEST 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said: WARNING: STORM IS TRENDING WEST Which storm?? This one that should be happening in july? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said: WARNING: STORM IS TRENDING WEST What are you talking about 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Let's all go out in the Atlantic and push this west. I thought you said weast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 12 hours ago, gravitylover said: The kid needs it sometimes It's nothing personal, I'd feed it to pretty much anyone that kept droning on like that. If it was up to me there would be snow on the ground from mid November to Easter but in a dud year like this one just get it over with, the mud has already been a problem and we don't need more. Oh I agree, on wanting to move on from this "winter" and Anthony's droning on about his longing for his long lost love Ms. Snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 GFS cold bias looks to strike again. No other model's support this as far as I can tell. CMC EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 30 minutes ago, romba said: GFS cold bias looks to strike again. No other model's support this as far as I can tell. CMC EURO All 3 GFS - CMC - Euro are completely different but to be fair all 3 have not performed well this winter especially past 5 days - and at times less then 5 days out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: All 3 GFS - CMC - Euro are completely different but to be fair all 3 have not performed well this winter especially past 5 days - and at times less then 5 days out.... The GFS finished last behind the number 1 Euro and EPS due to its extreme cold bias. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 I know SREF’s are not that great but they’re showing 6-8 inches for the area for Friday night. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just now, SnowFeen1 said: I know SREF’s are not that great but they’re showing 6-8 inches for the area for Friday night. Euro shifted west with the norlun but the problem are surface temps. They are warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 53 minutes ago, romba said: GFS cold bias looks to strike again. No other model's support this as far as I can tell. CMC EURO From the memo announcing planned implementation of the FV3-based GFS: Several individual case studies illustrate the model still exhibits a cold bias and may produce excessive snow in the medium range. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pns19-09gfs_v15_1.pdf Nevertheless, the decision was made to go ahead despite the persistence of that issue. Bad decision making leads to bad outcomes. Bad outcomes can lead to a loss of confidence in the model's medium- and extended-range solutions. At present, medium-range and extended-range cold shots and snowstorms on the GFS are suspect when no other support is present. It should also be noted that the kind of cold that was present for the March 1956 (2nd snowstorm), 1960, and 1993 snowstorms (magnitude and expanse) is not shown on the GFS, which forecasts a storm similar to those with 10" or more snow in NYC and Boston in the Day 8-9 timeframe. The combination of an absence of support for such a storm and lack of sufficient cold argues strongly that that GFS forecast for a major March snowstorm is likely the product of the bias(es) that remained in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro shifted west with the norlun but the problem are surface temps. They are warm. Lets worry about getting the heavier precip in here first - that's the key- need more of a dynamic system to help draw the colder air in to the lower levels - 850's are not the issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9503 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 18 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said: I know SREF’s are not that great but they’re showing 6-8 inches for the area for Friday night. Let it go! Let it go! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: At present, medium-range and extended-range cold shots and snowstorms on the GFS are suspect when no other support is present. Understatement of the century right there. Thanks for the breakdown as always. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: From the memo announcing planned implementation of the FV3-based GFS: Several individual case studies illustrate the model still exhibits a cold bias and may produce excessive snow in the medium range. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pns19-09gfs_v15_1.pdf Nevertheless, the decision was made to go ahead despite the persistence of that issue. Bad decision making leads to bad outcomes. Bad outcomes can lead to a loss of confidence in the model's medium- and extended-range solutions. At present, medium-range and extended-range cold shots and snowstorms on the GFS are suspect when no other support is present. It should also be noted that the kind of cold that was present for the March 1956 (2nd snowstorm), 1960, and 1993 snowstorms (magnitude and expanse) is not shown on the GFS, which forecasts a storm similar to those with 10" or more snow in NYC and Boston in the Day 8-9 timeframe. The combination of an absence of support for such a storm and lack of sufficient cold argues strongly that that GFS forecast for a major March snowstorm is likely the product of the bias(es) that remained in place. You wonder how things would have gone had they chosen MPAS instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 46 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said: I know SREF’s are not that great but they’re showing 6-8 inches for the area for Friday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowFeen1 said: I know SREF’s are not that great but they’re showing 6-8 inches for the area for Friday night. It’s over Johnny, done, finished, it’s dead Jim, fat lady has sung, say goodnight and goodbye, bring down the curtain, give it up... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Regardless of what occurs this weekend (most us getting an inch at MOST) it could be complete curtains for any winterlike weather. Extended range suggests several days of 50+ temps for a large majority of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: That's snow right? What's that guys formula to get his 6-8? Take whatever it says and multiply by 4??? *facepalm* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, romba said: That's snow right? What's that guys formula to get his 6-8? Take whatever it says and multiply by 4??? *facepalm* Every model, NAM, ICON, GFS, CMC, Euro, UKMET all have zero snow so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Stats people. This is for HPN. mean is 3.79. But the median would be well below that based on the clustering below 2 inches. That mean of 3.79 inches is pulled up by the extreme outliers showing insane snow amounts. This looks like white rain if we even see snow. As much as I would love to put on my snow goggles, I have to look at what the models are putting out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: lol It doubled down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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