NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: We all know the hit members are out to lunch, just strange there's so many this close. we do ? bold statements require some evidence to back it up with...……... Even the long range NAM is on board BUT won't be entering its more accurate range for another 24 hours 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 A faster phase may come down to a stronger southern stream UL like the NAM has. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: A faster phase may come down to a stronger southern stream UL like the NAM has. It boils down to the very progressive nature of the pattern that wants to shove everything East even if there is a phase. The ridge is right on its heels and flattens it/pushes it OTS. That all needs to slow down IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Uggh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 The key right now is still the ensembles IMO. If they don't at least hold serve or improve in the next few runs this threat is cooked. Honestly, the NAM has my attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 53 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It boils down to the very progressive nature of the pattern that wants to shove everything East even if there is a phase. The ridge is right on its heels and flattens it/pushes it OTS. That all needs to slow down IMO. Progressive split flow patterns need a robust enough southern stream UL so the Great Lakes UL doesn’t suppress it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: How do you know they are out to lunch? one can argue pattern persistence-90% of the time with this type of pattern, a big east coast storm won't work out. Time and time again this winter-ensemble members have shown snows only for it to not verify-why? The pattern doesn't support it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: one can argue pattern persistence-90% of the time with this type of pattern, a big east coast storm won't work out. Time and time again this winter-ensemble members have shown snows only for it to not verify-why? The pattern doesn't support it. Yeah it's been a constant parade of failure all winter with mid range ensemble ghost snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 This will probably be another fail but I actually think this has the best chance of anything we've had this winter, enough to bring me back for this forum to track for one final time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 8 hours ago, PB-99 said: The air mass %^&. You would need the cleanest of phases and a perfectly placed deepening system. Or you could play 6, 15, 24, 38, 55, 63 * 5 and see if that works too. I'm not actually that worriedf about the airmass, we're talking a sub 980 low here, it's a hit or miss meaning either we miss or get scraped with nothing (most likely outcome) or if it's close enough to be a real storm it will change to heavy wet snow with dynamics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: I'm not actually that worriedf about the airmass, we're talking a sub 980 low here, it's a hit or miss meaning either we miss or get scraped with nothing (most likely outcome) or if it's close enough to be a real storm it will change to heavy wet snow with dynamics If the precip is light or moderate it would likely be white rain, which could happen if the low is bombing well out at sea and moving east. If it's closer and heavy bands come through, it would crash down to 32 and be accumulating. But a ways to go before figuring that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: If the precip is light or moderate it would likely be white rain, which could happen if the low is bombing well out at sea and moving east. If it's closer and heavy bands come through, it would crash down to 32 and be accumulating. But a ways to go before figuring that out. I give up this is white rain for us and we move on maybe some accumulations by Montauk Saturday morning. I’m done! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 This threat is over. It had a chance but nothing wants to go right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 27 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If the precip is light or moderate it would likely be white rain, which could happen if the low is bombing well out at sea and moving east. If it's closer and heavy bands come through, it would crash down to 32 and be accumulating. But a ways to go before figuring that out. Yes to me light or moderate is not a real storm anyway, if it's heavy then it's snow, the airmass won't be an issue if the low is closer to the coast and the precip is intense. But yea we're a long way from that and with where the models are at and the say the winter is going I'm sure it will stay well out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This threat is over. It had a chance but nothing wants to go right. you saw the 0Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: you saw the 0Z NAM Yep it lost the threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 I mean would you really want one storm surrounded by 50s just to remind you of what could have been? I honestly hate when we get a storm and it immediately warms up. Such a waste. Look at it like this, at least we won’t have to spend millions on storm cleanup and could potentially use that should the Coronavirus threat increase. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 6 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: I mean would you really want one storm surrounded by 50s just to remind you of what could have been? I honestly hate when we get a storm and it immediately warms up. Such a waste. Look at it like this, at least we won’t have to spend millions on storm cleanup and could potentially use that should the Coronavirus threat increase. Snow is snow I dont care if its 80 the next day . 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Forgive my ignorance. A lot has been made of the fast flow not allowing storms to make the turn up the coast and amplify. If the flow is so fast how are so many storms this year able to cut and amplify so far west of here? Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Same old story of the fast northern stream suppressing the southern stream. Notice how the jet hitting the PAC NW knocks down the ridge out west too quickly. With a raging +AO, we would have needed substantial help from the Pacific. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Snow is snow I dont care if its 80 the next day . Anthony, bless you, your resolve is unbreakable. I’ll try to keep that in mind as I avoid litigation by shoveling heavy slush off my row house steps. That and the third degree sunburn I’ll get on my hairless pate because I can’t find my sunscreen the first week of March. Other than that, my compliments and admiration go to you. As always .... 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Snow is snow I don't care if its 80 the next day . You obviously live a paved life At this point in the year a heavy wet snow will do nothing other than make mud, lots of MUD. This ruins most outdoor activities other than walking on the sidewalk (nearest one of those to me is almost 2 miles away), it wipes out the chance to get the garden going early so we can eat fresh food that's good for us and it destroys my business and puts my income off until June. If you want to see snow go find it, stop hoping for an event that will do nothing more than disrupt the lives of the other couple of million people that live in the area outside of your little Brooklyn/NYC paved and concrete world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 The NAM wants absolutely nothing to do with Fri - Sat like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 10 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: I mean would you really want one storm surrounded by 50s just to remind you of what could have been? I honestly hate when we get a storm and it immediately warms up. Such a waste. Look at it like this, at least we won’t have to spend millions on storm cleanup and could potentially use that should the Coronavirus threat increase. This ^^^^ so much this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: You obviously live a paved life At this point in the year a heavy wet snow will do nothing other than make mud, lots of MUD. This ruins most outdoor activities other than walking on the sidewalk (nearest one of those to me is almost 2 miles away), it wipes out the chance to get the garden going early so we can eat fresh food that's good for us and it destroys my business and puts my income off until June. If you want to see snow go find it, stop hoping for an event that will do nothing more than disrupt the lives of the other couple of million people that live in the area outside of your little Brooklyn/NYC paved and concrete world. Don't waste negative energy concerned about other ppl's hopes. Personally I would want every single snowstorm to dump 2 feet, get the day off from work/school and play with the kids in it, and then 80's right before and after it. And my hoping for that obviously has 0 impact on whether it happens, so why worry about what ppl like Anthony and myself want? Needless divisiveness in a world already fractured with it. Lastly, a couple of days of 80's and sunshine would solve that mud problem fairly quickly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Snow is snow I dont care if its 80 the next day . 812, I feel your pain brother but as for me I hate when snow is gone the next day. Give me snow on the ground from November or Dec until March and count me in every single day but as for March and April storms that are gone the next day count me out as IMO those storms suck. That said I get why you want it to snow and to those people who might give you grief for wanting and wishing for snow screw them as it's not as if you make it happen but it is something you enjoy, hell I have bad allergies in the summer am I gonna come here and tell people screw you and your sun and your flowers ? We will get em next year 812 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 47 minutes ago, romba said: Don't waste negative energy concerned about other ppl's hopes. Personally I would want every single snowstorm to dump 2 feet, get the day off from work/school and play with the kids in it, and then 80's right before and after it. And my hoping for that obviously has 0 impact on whether it happens, so why worry about what ppl like Anthony and myself want? Needless divisiveness in a world already fractured with it. Lastly, a couple of days of 80's and sunshine would solve that mud problem fairly quickly Move to Denver, CO...that happens all the time-it's usually warmest right before it snows there.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Same old story of the fast northern stream suppressing the southern stream. Notice how the jet hitting the PAC NW knocks down the ridge out west too quickly. With a raging +AO, we would have needed substantial help from the Pacific. We can stick a fork in this “threat” not that it ever really existed. The GFS wanted no part of it at any point, now every model (GFS Euro UKMET CMC NAM ICON) are all total misses 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We can stick a fork in this “threat” not that it ever really existed. The GFS wanted no part of it at any point, now every model (GFS Euro UKMET CMC NAM ICON) are all total misses No 37 B/L is the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 I would not mind being in High Point NJ if .4 to .5 actually does fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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