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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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42 minutes ago, romba said:

Last night's Euro @ the tail end, take it fwiw

 

 

 

this is what the GFS 500mb looks like later next week - some blocking might be developing but this might all be another false signal have to get a few runs in a row to start considering this

gfs_z500a_namer_34.png

 

 

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2 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

We’ll see. The second teaser is a slow mover and is staying to the south and OTS. Let’s see if the boy who called wolf cried one to many times. 

That didn’t take long. The phantom cold and snowy long range on the GFS just went bye bye. We’ve seen this movie before, same flick over and over since late November....

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17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That didn’t take long. The phantom cold and snowy long range on the GFS just went bye bye. We’ve seen this movie before, same flick over and over since late November....

Any threat will have to be within 3 days to be taken seriously this year.   If we get something, it's likely by the 10th, once the torch returns it's over.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

oh you're back on the cold/snow train again?    Pattern is the same, expect more of what we've had.   Jan and Feb are +5 to +6, March will likely be somewhere in the same category-that's a torch

CFS getting warmer by the day as well

CFSv202242020.jpg

The people on that train for March are going to be Casey Jones...

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On 2/12/2020 at 4:41 PM, jm1220 said:

If North America was too wide, we'd just live in a desert. Not what most would want. 

Not that the Atlantic's been great either (actually this year it's been atrocious, maybe there should be a study of correlation between average flight times to London and seasonal NYC snow in a winter. I'd bet the longer flight time winters have more NYC snow since that would probably indicate -NAO) but the Pacific is by far the biggest ocean, with most of the world's heat budget. We live in the westerlies, so whatever the Pacific decides to do we're essentially stuck with. The Pacific jet has especially been ridiculous this and last winter and we suffer as a result. Until that quiets down and the Atlantic can also slow down and develop some blocking, we're stuck with a cold/snowy West, upper MIdwest and NNE and lousy everywhere else. 

this "winter" looks like it's going to go down in the record books, along with 72-73, 89-90, 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, as among the worst of all time.  I wonder if there's a way to calculate the worst winters overall across the entire country, this one would sure be among the top ten there also.

 

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