Mid to Long Range Threats

[The Iceman]

24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I tend to to disagree with that with the NAO trending negative around that time

That is not a neg NAO. That's a neutral NAO look that will likely trend positive as we get closer as it has most of the winter based on the graph above. Check out the GEFS today, it's about as positive as it gets in the LR. No blocking at all. This threat has apps runner written all over it. Would like to be wrong though.

[PB-99]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. The airmass sucks. Among other big issues. This is a rain event again

 

Yep, the cold presses in behind 

 

[Allsnow]

Eps definitely not amped up as the op. (Shocking) verbatim weak. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

er um, you do that all the time....

No I don't.  Stop defending him. You are another one who calls for warmth all the time.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

No I don't.  Stop defending him. You are another one who calls for warmth all the time.

and warmth verifies most of the time chief.  Do you ever learn?

[Allsnow]

Yay. Dry useless cold 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

and warmth verifies most of the time chief.  Do you ever learn?

Yep only this winter

[MJO812]

I guess we should all stop tracking the storm for next week since warmth always verifies and the eps says so.

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep only this winter

going back to late 2015 we are in an incredible torch....look at the records, almost zero below normal winter months....you have to be realistic here

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I guess we should all stop tracking the storm for next week since warmth always verifies and the eps says so.

yep, winter was canceled in mid January-go outside and do something productive instead of tracking fantasy day 7+ storms that never verify

-

definition of insanity:  Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result

[Allsnow]

Eps hinting at something around the 3/4. The cold air will be around for this event. Snow mean is decent 

[NEG NAO]

Euro has the LP close to the GFS position BUT stronger 991vs 997 - thus more frozen

[Brian5671]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Eps hinting at something around the 3/4. The cold air will be around for this event. Snow mean is decent 

That's our likely window-next week will have a crappy airmass, I would expect something if we get it the first week in March before the pattern goes back to what we've had all winter

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's our likely window-next week will have a crappy airmass, I would expect something if we get it the first week in March before the pattern goes back to what we've had all winter

whats so crappy about this airmass ?

[WarrenCtyWx]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

going back to late 2015 we are in an incredible torch....look at the records, almost zero below normal winter months....you have to be realistic here

Late December 2017 to early January 2018 was the only notable cold period since then.

[forkyfork]

the low levels stink. nyc sounding 6 hours before it starts:

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

whats so crappy about this airmass ?

it's in the mid to upper 30's at the surface-that won't cut it

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Late December 2017 to early January 2018 was the only notable cold period since then.

That was impressive-below freezing for almost 2 weeks and then a blizzard to end the cold snap....

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's in the mid to upper 30's at the surface-that won't cut it

then why this ? Like I said previously the system at this strength 991 will bring the cold enough air down to the lower levels  - the surface will be slightly warmer but the intensity of the snow could still cause accumulations and eventually even the surface will keep cooling that's why the EURO shows this - its probably not going to verify exactly like this though

[Brian5671]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

then why this ? Like I said previously the system at this strength 991 will bring the cold enough air down to the lower levels  - the surface will be slightly warmer but the intensity of the snow could still cause accumulations and eventually even the surface will keep cooling that's why the EURO shows this - its probably not going to verify exactly like this though

if the system bombs, I'd agree.   Verbatim it's not that strong and you end up with mid 30's and white rain in all liklihood.

[NEG NAO]

On ‎2‎/‎14‎/‎2020 at 8:49 PM, donsutherland1 said:

I was referring to today. That was yesterday’s 12z run. Both today’s 0z and 12z runs dropped the storm.

Not to be critical of Don or anyone else - the above post is one reason why  you have to keep all of the solutions for late next week on the table. Both the Euro and GFS were showing this weeks southern snow event almost a week ago - then they lost it -then within the last couple of days its back and will likely verify in some areas. Keep everything on the table !

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Not to be critical of Don or anyone else - the above post is one reason why  you have to keep all of the solutions for late next week on the table. Both the Euro and GFS were showing this weeks southern snow event almost a week ago - then they lost it -then within the last couple of days its back and will likely verify in some areas. Keep everything on the table !

Exactly

People are dismissing a storm a week out is being foolish. 

[snowman19]

37 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

whats so crappy about this airmass ?

Did you look at the soundings? The boundary layer is junk

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Did you look at the soundings? The boundary layer is junk

lower right hand side - Best Guess SNOW

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

No I don't.  Stop defending him. You are another one who calls for warmth all the time.

Just put together data for my tick report using HPN data for our upcoming tick season. From January 2018 through January 2020, we have had 16 above normal months (>+0.3 C departure), 4 normal months (-0.3C < Normal < +0.3C), and 5 below average months (<-0.3C). Since January 2018 our average monthly mean temperatures have been running 1.0C above average or 1.7F above average. Not a whole lot of 'cold' to speak of. Not the greatest departure that we have seen over the last decade, but we are routinely above average. Doesn't mean it can't snow. Snow does not mean cold in the 2000s, most of the time time it means just cold enough. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

Just put together data for my tick report using HPN data for our upcoming tick season. From January 2018 through January 2020, we have had 16 above normal months (>+0.3 C departure), 4 normal months (-0.3C < Normal < +0.3C), and 5 below average months (<-0.3C). Since January 2018 our average monthly mean temperatures have been running 1.0C above average or 1.7F above average. Not a whole lot of 'cold' to speak of. Not the greatest departure that we have seen over the last decade, but we are routinely above average. Doesn't mean it can't snow. Snow does not mean cold in the 2000s, most of the time time it means just cold enough. 

Past few summers have not been overly hot either.  The warmth has been concentrated in the fall and winter.....  

[JustinRP37]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Past few summers have not been overly hot either.  The warmth has been concentrated in the fall and winter.....  

I posted about that in the other thread. It is very difficult to have both super high heat and the super high dew points we are having. It is one reason why coastal Florida has never broken 100 degrees. This held down our high temperatures, but elevated our low temperatures. Our highest positive departures over the past two years were actually centered between July and September. In 2018 July was +1.2C, August was +2.4C, and September was +2.3C. Only month with a higher department was May 2018 at +2.8C. In 2019, July was +2.2C and October was +2.1C. March 2019 was -0.4C and and November was -1.8C for departures. 

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Just put together data for my tick report using HPN data for our upcoming tick season. From January 2018 through January 2020, we have had 16 above normal months (>+0.3 C departure), 4 normal months (-0.3C < Normal < +0.3C), and 5 below average months (<-0.3C). Since January 2018 our average monthly mean temperatures have been running 1.0C above average or 1.7F above average. Not a whole lot of 'cold' to speak of. Not the greatest departure that we have seen over the last decade, but we are routinely above average. Doesn't mean it can't snow. Snow does not mean cold in the 2000s, most of the time time it means just cold enough. 

Apparently epidemiologists predicted an increase in Lyme cases a few years back based on the numbers of acorns....more acorns, more places for mice to nest, more ticks, if my understanding was correct. had a Lone star tick ( not native to this region ) hanging out on my back side for a couple days, though it was a scab ( they are tricky ) I was lucky I do not show signs of meat allergy, which this tick can trigger. This winter has probably been warm enough that both ticks and mice remained active ( I know the mice are; they got shocked the few cold days we had and I saw a few frozen in the shed, don't get me started on hantavirus...)

[NEG NAO]

51 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Apparently epidemiologists predicted an increase in Lyme cases a few years back based on the numbers of acorns....more acorns, more places for mice to nest, more ticks, if my understanding was correct. had a Lone star tick ( not native to this region ) hanging out on my back side for a couple days, though it was a scab ( they are tricky ) I was lucky I do not show signs of meat allergy, which this tick can trigger. This winter has probably been warm enough that both ticks and mice remained active ( I know the mice are; they got shocked the few cold days we had and I saw a few frozen in the shed, don't get me started on hantavirus...)

[gravitylover]

14 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Just put together data for my tick report using HPN data for our upcoming tick season. From January 2018 through January 2020, we have had 16 above normal months (>+0.3 C departure), 4 normal months (-0.3C < Normal < +0.3C), and 5 below average months (<-0.3C). Since January 2018 our average monthly mean temperatures have been running 1.0C above average or 1.7F above average. Not a whole lot of 'cold' to speak of. Not the greatest departure that we have seen over the last decade, but we are routinely above average. Doesn't mean it can't snow. Snow does not mean cold in the 2000s, most of the time time it means just cold enough. 

I'd love to get a look at that report and research. Is that something you can post here? With all the time I spend in the woods it's important and I try to read up on it as often as I can.