Barman49 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 7:07 PM, Snow88 said: 200 hours out Just worry about a storm this far outAgreed. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 7:07 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s good for now. Don’t look at the rain snow line at this time.I would never look at a r/s line this far out. Just pointing out what the Euro shows. Of course this could change as we get closer. Just no more cutters please. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 7:13 PM, Barman49 said: I would never look at a r/s line this far out. Just pointing out what the Euro shows. Of course this could change as we get closer. Just no more cutters please. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Expand Most likely a storm that big with marginal cold, with a good track like that it would make its own cold air and dynamically cool all columns as the storm deepens! Just pointing out things you didn’t point out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 7:07 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s good for now. Don’t look at the rain snow line at this time. Expand It had me fooled. Without looking at thermal maps you would think that's a raging blizzard with a bombing sub 980 low on the BM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 7:17 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Most likely a storm that big with marginal cold, with a good track like that it would make its own cold air and dynamically cool all columns as the storm deepens! Just pointing out things you didn’t point out!That's what I said we would need a benchmark track and the low bomb out. Same thing different wording. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 7:19 PM, Barman49 said: That's what I said we would need a benchmark track and the low bomb out. Same thing different wording. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Expand Euro already shows a bombogenesis from hour 174 and on. It drops over 24 millibars in less than 24 hours in fact it drops 35 millibars from 174-198 hours as the low comes up the coast. Classic nor’easter signature. That’s a bombing out low. remember every model has problems reading the dynamic cooling and evaporative cooling. They are 99% of the time warmer than what they should be especially at the onset. What happens after they are better but that usually consists of a inland low, this would be a miller A which wouldn’t consist of any warm layer surging up. This would be getting colder and colder but the model doesn’t show that, and that’s why in my opinion is wrong. Euro does show a benchmark track 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 7:07 PM, Snow88 said: 200 hours out Just worry about a storm this far out Expand lol you should have watched the guys on TWC talking about a major pattern change, they said there is not enough cold air around for the storm next weekend (7 days out) but there will be for the one after that (14 days out) and the one after that (21 days out.) LMAO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 7:28 PM, LibertyBell said: lol you should have watched the guys on TWC talking about a major pattern change, they said there is not enough cold air around for the storm next weekend (7 days out) but there will be for the one after that (14 days out) and the one after that (21 days out.) LMAO Expand Oh God they are tv personalities. They don’t know what they’re talking about! im curious to see the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 7:28 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Oh God they are tv personalities. They don’t know what they’re talking about! im curious to see the EPS Expand Weak storm signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 7:36 PM, Snow88 said: Weak storm signal Expand That thing looks out to sea! Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 7:28 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Oh God they are tv personalities. They don’t know what they’re talking about! im curious to see the EPS Expand one of them is supposedly a "doctor" lol- although he was the guy trying to temper down the enthusiasm a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 With that flow on the EPS it has no chance to come up the coast. Of course we still have a week to go so time for changes. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 7:44 PM, Barman49 said: With that flow on the EPS it has no chance to come up the coast. Of course we still have a week to go so time for changes. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Expand I'm not even gonna think about this until 3-4 days out. The signal for a storm is there though. Many things have to go right however. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Hard to believe with a long this strong this would be rain. Still a while to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 10:25 PM, Snow88 said: Hard to believe with a long this strong this would be rain. Still a while to go. Expand Believe me It wont be. Taken verbatim that's snow down to the coast. Typical warm thermal bias with the global models. Good thing at this point is we have a signal for a strong storm. Bad thing is my Superbowl party could be in serious jeopardy. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 10:39 PM, NutleyBlizzard said: Believe me It wont be. Taken verbatim that's snow down to the coast. Typical warm thermal bias with the global models. Good thing at this point is we have a signal for a strong storm. Bad thing is my Superbowl party could be in serious jeopardy. Expand Why exactly wouldn’t it be rain? The cold is not there near the coast 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 10:39 PM, NutleyBlizzard said: Believe me It wont be. Taken verbatim that's snow down to the coast. Typical warm thermal bias with the global models. Good thing at this point is we have a signal for a strong storm. Bad thing is my Superbowl party could be in serious jeopardy. Expand I agree That should have been snow to the coast. Thermals shouldnt be taken seriously until we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 10:42 PM, snowman19 said: Why exactly wouldn’t it be rain? The cold is not there near the coast Expand With a low that strong? LoL 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 10:42 PM, snowman19 said: Why exactly wouldn’t it be rain? The cold is not there near the coast Expand Dynamics would be at play. A low that intense would create its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Would be rain to snow when the intense rates arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 10:46 PM, Snow88 said: With a low that strong? LoL Expand Look back at the coastal storms of Jan, Feb, and Mar, 1998. Very strong lows took benchmark and east of benchmark tracks and they were all rain for the entire metro area 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 11:01 PM, snowman19 said: Look back at the coastal storms of Jan, Feb, and Mar, 1998. Very strong lows took benchmark and east of benchmark tracks and they were all rain for the entire metro area Expand Dude this is a week out. Strong signal for a coastal storm. You cant just sit here today thinking this will def be a rain event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Lets stop arguing and listen to MT. Holly : SATURDAY AND BEYOND. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH (POSSIBLY TAKING THE FORM OF A COASTAL LOW) NEXT WEEKEND BUT DETAILS REGARDING THE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. LEFT POPS IN THE CHC.RANGE DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 10:46 PM, Snow88 said: With a low that strong? LoL Expand Yes.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 11:06 PM, Snow88 said: Dude this is a week out. Strong signal for a coastal storm. You cant just sit here today thinking this will def be a rain event. Expand He didn't say that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 11:06 PM, Snow88 said: Dude this is a week out. Strong signal for a coastal storm. You cant just sit here today thinking this will def be a rain event. Expand Why can't he? He always does. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 11:14 PM, NEG NAO said: Lets stop arguing and listen to MT. Holly : SATURDAY AND BEYOND. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH (POSSIBLY TAKING THE FORM OF A COASTAL LOW) NEXT WEEKEND BUT DETAILS REGARDING THE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. LEFT POPS IN THE CHC.RANGE DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. Expand This is just common sense. I don't trust the models beyond 72 hours let alone a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Let’s get that same low the GFS shows in the same position at 72hrs and I’ll be happy believe me that low will make its own cold air and cool all columns down yes my weenie is coming out but it’s true it’s a sub 980 low come on guys haven’t we learned here that the global suck at thermals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 THER-MALWARE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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