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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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19 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I feel like JB hasn’t been correct since 2015. He should probably stop with the outrageous analogs. 

His temp forecasts have severely busted in the last 5 years in what's a very mild pattern overall outside of Feb '15.    I mean he missed a few of the months by 7+ degrees.     

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1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

isn't there a vendor thread ?????? Could care less what JB or this whatever ….. has to say or any of the other for hire talking heads...….

True, should be in the vendor thread, but he did make a good point about some conflicting signals moving ahead by different models that need to be resolved 

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7 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah but the first storm in that series was a disaster up here. The sheer number of trees down, roads blocked (and closed for days) and power out for a week was a HUGE pain in the rear. No heat for a week when the highest temperature is in the 20's sucks. 

True. I think we just got lucky here specifically. I don't wish damage on anyone.

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16 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Eps mean would make eastern North Carolina snow fans happy lol 

Well, most folks who move there don't like snow, so I don't think it will make them very happy.....in fact NC is a retirement destination for "half backs" people who went to FL but decided the heat was too much, and they'd rather have four seasons with no or very little snow. Course, they could get that right here this year....

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31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

we get some cold, but there's nothing to lock it in, so in and out it goes.     Wash rinse repeat-any storms will cut to our west and we'll rain.

Some promise from many people at the end of this month. Imagine if we get our biggest snow event in March lol.

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14 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

The cold will finally appear, the EPS is forecasting a week of -6 into the N/E by d 10. 

The question will be, is it just another transient period and is there anything  ( snow wise ) with it ? 

 

1583236800-6rdiMKgk1t8.png

 

1583280000-vdAf4sqA8RI.png

 

 

Haven’t forecasted cold or snow shots >10d been somewhat or completely reversed between 5-10d? Do you see something here any different?  Not a met so genuine question.


 

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49 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Makes sense this time 

 

1581984000-POHwHyK1Nms_all.png

Assuming we don’t loose it again, the first week of March is the “best” look we’ve seen since the beginning of December, which isn’t saying much at all. We are going to have to settle for a weaker -EPO than we had early last March. I have to believe this is transient with no -NAO or -AO blocks setting up to trap everything. How long the PAC stays ok is the other question. The PAC jet always seems to rage back and blast any transient EPO/PNA to pieces. Plus the SPV is still strong as hell....

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34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Assuming we don’t loose it again, the first week of March is the “best” look we’ve seen since the beginning of December, which isn’t saying much at all. We are going to have to settle for a weaker -EPO than we had early last March. I have to believe this is transient with no -NAO or -AO blocks setting up to trap everything. How long the PAC stays ok is the other question. The PAC jet always seems to rage back and blast any transient EPO/PNA to pieces. Plus the SPV is still strong as hell....

 

Agreed. 

Probably just a short window. 

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51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Assuming we don’t loose it again, the first week of March is the “best” look we’ve seen since the beginning of December, which isn’t saying much at all. We are going to have to settle for a weaker -EPO than we had early last March. I have to believe this is transient with no -NAO or -AO blocks setting up to trap everything. How long the PAC stays ok is the other question. The PAC jet always seems to rage back and blast any transient EPO/PNA to pieces. Plus the SPV is still strong as hell....

March is a lot more fickle with regard to teleconnections. The rapidly shifting wavelengths can alter their signals particularly if they're very weak. 

And right now they're looking pretty weak to start March. 

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

March is a lot more fickle with regard to teleconnections. The rapidly shifting wavelengths can alter their signals particularly if they're very weak. 

And right now they're looking pretty weak to start March. 

It does not change the fact that there is no high latitude blocking, a strong PAC jet, and a very strong SPV. The first week of March is very likely only transient. 

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