MJO812 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 I'm all in as long as Isotherm likes the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Taking any snow out of the conversation Larry Cosgrove seemed pretty concerned for a potential storm which could be a major player for extreme weather over most of the eastern US late month which the models seem to be hinting at. He also hinted that more major springs storms to could follow. March/April can be active months for high impact weather events so just because we may not snow that certainly doesn't mean we can't see a few high impact weather events which could bring others hazards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Taking any snow out of the conversation Larry Cosgrove seemed pretty concerned for a potential storm which could be a major player for extreme weather of most of the eastern US late month which the models seem to be hinting at. He also hinted that more major springs storms to could follow. March/April can be active months for high impact weather events so just because we may not snow that certainly doesn't mean we can't see a few high impact weather events which could bring others hazards. Just read it, not only does he think there’s no more snow for the east coast the remainder of winter, he’s hinting that spring and summer may be scorching hot for us with a major SE ridge and La Niña developing. God I hope not, I absolutely hate the heat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Just read it, not only does he think there’s no more snow for the east coast the remainder of winter, he’s hinting that spring and summer may be scorching hot for us with a major SE ridge and La Niña developing. God I hope not, I absolutely hate the heat He didnt say no more snow I hate the heat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He didnt say no more snow I hate the heat Larry: “The snow risks would be limited to the Front Range, northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest.” “I do not accept the colder outlooks spewed out by the weekly model output. There is no sign of entrenched blocking in any of the critical positions (AK/YT, Nunavut AR or Greenland), the flow goes semizonal at times, and the repetition of the subtropical jet stream cannot be ignored. I follow the Canadian ensemble members in shaping another trough complex out of the West and High Plains by March 2. So a return to a cold West vs. mild or changeable East seems probable.” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 52 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Taking any snow out of the conversation Larry Cosgrove seemed pretty concerned for a potential storm which could be a major player for extreme weather over most of the eastern US late month which the models seem to be hinting at. He also hinted that more major springs storms to could follow. March/April can be active months for high impact weather events so just because we may not snow that certainly doesn't mean we can't see a few high impact weather events which could bring others hazards. Earthlight tweeted about this yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Eps drops the hammer with the cold at the end of February into first week of March 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Eps drops the hammer with the cold at the end of February into first week of March Well if it actually happens it took long enough. Are we setting up another late February first half of March snowy period?? TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Well if it actually happens it took long enough. Are we setting up another late February first half of March snowy period?? TBD Yep. Definitely TBD on the snow. But I’m confident on the cold shot it has mjo support. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 27 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Well if it actually happens it took long enough. Are we setting up another late February first half of March snowy period?? TBD It’s more the first week of March for the bulk of the cold if the EPS is correct. Does it snow? Who knows, it’s not showing anything big at the moment. It’s PAC/EPO driven, no -NAO or -AO. PNA is negative 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Taking any snow out of the conversation Larry Cosgrove seemed pretty concerned for a potential storm which could be a major player for extreme weather over most of the eastern US late month which the models seem to be hinting at. He also hinted that more major springs storms to could follow. March/April can be active months for high impact weather events so just because we may not snow that certainly doesn't mean we can't see a few high impact weather events which could bring others hazards. A while ago, Cosgrove used to be on one of the Philly stations. I always liked how he went in depth when giving his forecast. I learned more than the usual. I could tell he liked snow, and if he is negative about it then it seems worth a listen. Still hopeful we have a window late month into early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Yep. Definitely TBD on the snow. But I’m confident on the cold shot it has mjo support. We can't seem to shake the timing where things become more favorable at the tail end of winter. It would be something if we see a few winter storms from the last week of the month thru the first half of March. What would this be three years in a row?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: We can't seem to shake the timing where things become more favorable at the tail end of winter. It would be something if we see a few winter storms from the last week of the month thru the first half of March. What would this be three years in a row?? Yep. Plus as @uncle W detailed we don’t need all the stars to align for snow in March. In March 2019 that snowy weekend was all -epo driven. Initial it looks like we are to deep into the trough but when it relaxes we might get something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, mattinpa said: A while ago, Cosgrove used to be on one of the Philly stations. I always liked how he went in depth when giving his forecast. I learned more than the usual. I could tell he liked snow, and if he is negative about it then it seems worth a listen. Still hopeful we have a window late month into early March. I used to watch him when he was at WOR channel 9 news in Secaucus NJ back in the 80's along with Lloyd Lindsey Young. I have been subscribed to Larry's newsletter for at least 15 years now. Always a good read. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Next weeks cold shot gettting colder on the eps. I would think this might be a problem for early budding trees in the southeast 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep. Plus as @uncle W detailed we don’t need all the stars to align for snow in March. In March 2019 that snowy weekend was all -epo driven. Initial it looks like we are to deep into the trough but when it relaxes we might get something. Funny thing is it always seems to snow around my birthday which is March 5th, we will see if that holds this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Next weeks cold shot gettting colder on the eps. I would think this might be a problem for early budding trees in the southeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: We can't seem to shake the timing where things become more favorable at the tail end of winter. It would be something if we see a few winter storms from the last week of the month thru the first half of March. What would this be three years in a row?? In NYC for 4 of the last 5 seasons the snowiest month has been March. Add to that March has had a lower average monthly temperature two of the last three years than February (that's only happened 7 times in 151 years that March has been colder than February). This coming March does not have a very high bar to shoot for to keep both streaks going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Eps snow mean still very meh through the 2nd. Looks way below Avg in that timeframe but dry as of now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 JB now using analogs such as March 1960 and April 1982. I hope he notifies the Mexican government they are going to be buried in another El Chichon like volcanic eruption, considered largely responsible for the April 06 Blizzard that year. More fundamentally, he is trying to pit the coming -EPO against the unfavorable MJO phases, to see which is king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, CIK62 said: JB now using analogs such as March 1960 and April 1982. I hope he notifies the Mexican government they are going to be buried in another El Chichon like volcanic eruption, considered largely responsible for the April 06 Blizzard that year. More fundamentally, he is trying to pit the coming -EPO against the unfavorable MJO phases, to see which is king. I feel like JB hasn’t been correct since 2015. He should probably stop with the outrageous analogs. 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 JB just jinxed my 1960 analog...it was the only analog with all three winter months warmer than normal with a historically cold and snowy March...the way this year is going we will be lucky to get a March like 1992 or 1980 let alone 1960...the biggest snowfall in Central Park so far is 2.1" in January...I had 3.5" in early December...I think March will have a bigger storm with 3-5" or so... some weak snow years with the biggest snowstorm coming in March... year...….seasonal snow...March snowstorm... 1959...………...13.0"...………...5.5"...……………... 1968...………...19.5"...………...6.6"...……………... 1976...………...17.3"...………...4.2"...………...…. 1980...………...12.8"...………...4.6"...…...……….. 1981...………...19.4"...………...8.6"...……………. 1992...………...12.6"...………...6.2"...………... 1998...………….5.5"...…………..5.0"...…………... 1999...………...12.7"...………...4.5"...………….. 2007...…………12.4"...…....…..5.5"...…………. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Nws Boston mentioned a possible pattern change 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 4 hours ago, uncle W said: JB just jinxed my 1960 analog...it was the only analog with all three winter months warmer than normal with a historically cold and snowy March...the way this year is going we will be lucky to get a March like 1992 or 1980 let alone 1960...the biggest snowfall in Central Park so far is 2.1" in January...I had 3.5" in early December...I think March will have a bigger storm with 3-5" or so... some weak snow years with the biggest snowstorm coming in March... year...….seasonal snow...March snowstorm... 1959...………...13.0"...………...5.5"...……………... 1968...………...19.5"...………...6.6"...……………... 1976...………...17.3"...………...4.2"...………...…. 1980...………...12.8"...………...4.6"...…...……….. 1981...………...19.4"...………...8.6"...……………. 1992...………...12.6"...………...6.2"...………... 1998...………….5.5"...…………..5.0"...…………... 1999...………...12.7"...………...4.5"...………….. 2007...…………12.4"...…....…..5.5"...…………. The all time March Snowfall record in NYC was March 1896 - through Feb. NYC had a total of 12.8 inches then in March they had 30.5 inches and in April 3.0 inches ending up with much above avg. snowfall for the season - that March featured this http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photomarch1896.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 4 hours ago, mattinpa said: A while ago, Cosgrove used to be on one of the Philly stations. I always liked how he went in depth when giving his forecast. I learned more than the usual. I could tell he liked snow, and if he is negative about it then it seems worth a listen. Still hopeful we have a window late month into early March. I will never forget when he was in Philly he was the first to sniff out the blizzard of 1996 over a week in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: isn't there a vendor thread ?????? Could care less what JB or this whatever ….. has to say or any of the other for hire talking heads...…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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