NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 head south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: This month is a total lost cause, EPS, GEFS and GEPS have none, zip zero for snow come 3/1, even the op GFS at 384 hours had nada That's good, no where to go but up from here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: head south In this winter this would be the perfect caper, I'm skeptical of 7 inches on the SC coast though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: head south While the GFS is largely on its own with this idea, it should be noted that during winter 1972-73, Columbia, SC picked up 16.0" snow on February 9-10. That winter, just 2.8" snow fell in New York City and only a trace was recorded in Philadelphia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: While the GFS is largely on its own with this idea, it should be noted that during winter 1972-73, Columbia, SC picked up 16.0" snow on February 9-10. That winter, just 2.8" snow fell in New York City and only a trace was recorded in Philadelphia. No Don - Euro had this idea too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: No Don - Euro had this idea too I was referring to today. That was yesterday’s 12z run. Both today’s 0z and 12z runs dropped the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 16 hours ago, Allsnow said: Agree, 2 footers are very rare in March. But March 2018 was a historic month for Nj. It was the 4th snowiest in New Brunswick history. How much did you have in the second storm? Nws had 9-11 in your area. That’s real good for March. March of 18 was excellent here on SI...Had 25" total for month and 13.5" with the 21st-22nd event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, doncat said: March of 18 was excellent here on SI...Had 25" total for month and 13.5" with the 21st-22nd event. Snowiest March/April in my life in SW CT. 10. 9.5. 2.5 and in April 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Snowiest March/April in my life in SW CT. 10. 9.5. 2.5 and in April 6 Yeah had another 3.5" on Apr. 2nd...That was also my coldest April on station record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 1 hour ago, doncat said: March of 18 was excellent here on SI...Had 25" total for month and 13.5" with the 21st-22nd event. What did you measure for the first event in March? We got screwed here by substance with the CCB to my west. We got to 6 in Metuchen but crawled our way there. The following system more then made up for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: What did you measure for the first event in March? We got screwed here by substance with the CCB to my west. We got to 6 in Metuchen but crawled our way there. The following system more then made up for it March 7th had 8.0". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 i flew back from florida a few days after the march 21 storm and it looked like it never happened 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 27 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i flew back from florida a few days after the march 21 storm and it looked like it never happened Yeah. That snow was decently powdery for a late March event. I think by the end of the following day of the storm I had more snow left from March 7th lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 9 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yeah. That snow was decently powdery for a late March event. I think by the end of the following day of the storm I had more snow left from March 7th lol raw snowfall numbers don't tell the whole story. a foot of paste is going to have more impact than 18" of fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/02/16/north-america-on-the-long-term-16th-feb/ My final long range snowfall forecast for the season. Looks bleak for the Eastern US unfortunately. Similar negating factors as there have been all winter. I also verified my seasonal forecast from November. I predicted an average season, that ended up being below average for the Northeast coast. The interior didn’t do much better either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 11 hours ago, forkyfork said: i flew back from florida a few days after the march 21 storm and it looked like it never happened The snow that night was amazing because I’m not used to seeing a foot of paste on everything-the paste snow events on the south shore are typically short lived and go to rain like 2/13/14. 2 days later it was almost gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 On 2/14/2020 at 2:54 PM, Allsnow said: Agree, 2 footers are very rare in March. But March 2018 was a historic month for Nj. It was the 4th snowiest in New Brunswick history. How much did you have in the second storm? Nws had 9-11 in your area. That’s real good for March. Says 11.5, so be it. Good by March standards. Goos any time really. Think we aren't seeing any 2 footers for awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 19 hours ago, Allsnow said: What did you measure for the first event in March? We got screwed here by substance with the CCB to my west. We got to 6 in Metuchen but crawled our way there. The following system more then made up for it Had less than that really but it compacted so maybe not, but what was really frustrating were the folks here who told me I didn't know what I was talking about, that I was being a weenie, and it would come down hard eventually. As if I can't see what is outside my front door.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Had less than that really but it compacted so maybe not, but what was really frustrating were the folks here who told me I didn't know what I was talking about, that I was being a weenie, and it would come down hard eventually. As if I can't see what is outside my front door.... Haha. True. Really incredible gradient in our county for that storm. New Brunswick 10 Metuchen 6 Woodbridge 3. At one point we had light rain here as the CCB pounded to our west. We did have thunder snow and 2-3 inch rates when the event started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haha. True. Really incredible gradient in our county for that storm. New Brunswick 10 Metuchen 6 Woodbridge 3. At one point we had light rain here as the CCB pounded to our west. We did have thunder snow and 2-3 inch rates when the event started. Actually that isn't unusual. For example, the 2/610 storm left me with about 3, but folks in Metuchen had more ( the difference between 3 and 6 in very noticeable )and as you went further south it kept going up. My wife just unearthed some photos we have from around the Camden aquarium when the kids were little, the day after the blizzard. Incredibly the aquarium was open and the streets were quite clear; you can see the mountains of snow all along the Delaware river.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haha. True. Really incredible gradient in our county for that storm. New Brunswick 10 Metuchen 6 Woodbridge 3. At one point we had light rain here as the CCB pounded to our west. We did have thunder snow and 2-3 inch rates when the event started. Even for the snowy 2010’s, March 2018 was a big outlier for late season snowfall. ISP broke the March record with 31.9 inches of snow. The interesting stat is that ISP has had only 19.6 inches of snowfall for the last 2 winters. So more than 10 inches less than March 2018. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 M M 6.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even for the snowy 2010’s, March 2018 was a big outlier for late season snowfall. ISP broke the March record with 31.9 inches of snow. The interesting stat is that ISP has had only 19.6 inches of snowfall for the last 2 winters. So more than 10 inches less than March 2018. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 M M 6.8 We are in a snow drought no doubt. Hope its not a long term pattern. But I've seen that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: We are in a snow drought no doubt. Hope its not a long term pattern. But I've seen that happen. Welcome to the all or nothing snowfall era. ISP has been either much above or much below since 2010. A midrange 20’s snowfall season has been missing. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2020-04-30 6.8 76 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Welcome to the all or nothing snowfall era. ISP has been either much above or much below since 2010. A midrange 20’s snowfall season has been missing. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2020-04-30 6.8 76 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 What a stretch on Long Island from 2010 to 2018. Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: What a stretch on Long Island from 2010 to 2018. Crazy. Absurd. We will never see a run like that again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 27 minutes ago, Allsnow said: What a stretch on Long Island from 2010 to 2018. Crazy. Precisely what I have been saying for a few years now. People’s expectations of winter on LI have been altered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Absurd. We will never see a run like that again I think it runs in cycles. Seems to be a 30 year below average snowfall cycle to 20 year above average. If I am not mistaken 1920 to 1950 were not particularly snowy. 1950 to 1970 were very snowy and 1970 to 2000 were not too snowy. Of course the last 20 years may have been snowiest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: Absurd. We will never see a run like that again I want to agree 100% but I lived through the 70’s and 80’s consistently told that big snows couldn’t happen on LI you never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 I grew up in the 1960's...it was a great decade for snow...Christmas was white almost every year...then came the 1970's and 1980's...from the 1969-70 winter to the 1991-92 winter NYC had one winter with at least 30" of snow...1977-78 had over 50 inches and two storms over a foot...1979 had a snowstorm over a foot...1983 had an 18" snowstorm...1982 had the April Blizzard...since the 1992-93 winter there have been 14 years with at least 30" of snow and to many major storms to mention...in todays world with more moisture in the air snow droughts could be short but who knows for sure...after the snowy 1940's NYC had six winters with less than 20" of snow...the seventh year was 1955-56...it was even worse going into March until two major storms came during the third week of March...that period was much drier than today is...before the 1995-96 winter NYC had two years with a storm 20" or more...1888 and 1947...since 1996 the city has five...1996, 2006, 2010, 2010, 2016...2003 and 2011 just missed 20"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I not worried, S19. I have faith that you will be back by the next legitimate NYC frozen precipitation. threat. Then again, stay calm and get comfortable, it may be awhile. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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