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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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I’m really curious to know the amount of hours we’ve spent below freezing (and hard freezing or 28°F) vs normal.

I’ve had a few potted plants sitting outdoors all winter, half of them wouldn't survive our normal winters, especially in pots which expose the plant roots (the most cold sensitive part of a plant) to the ambient air temperatures. The Cilantro I planted in like Sept/Oct is still going.

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21 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was a controversial decision when it was made in 2016.

https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2016/07/28/noaa-makes-decision-new-global-weather-model-controversy-likely/

NOAA has decided on the nuts and bolts of a new, next generation, weather model that will replace the present Global Forecast System (GFS model), and the choice is sure to spark some controversy. The choice boiled down to a system called MPAS vs FV3. Many meteorologists were rooting for MPAS, which was developed by NCAR, while NOAA was leaning toward the FV3 which was a project of the GFDL Lab. 

Dr. Cliff Mass (at the Univ. of Washington) has written several blog posts about how we have fallen behind in numerical weather modelling, and has been championing the MPAS system as the much better way forward. It looks like this will not happen, based on news I just heard about tonight. NOAA chose the FV3 today, instead of MPAS (The video above shows the FV3 in action) and I am anxious to hear the debate that will soon ensue. 

There are two sides to this issue, and smart people have different opinions on both sides, and NOAA’s press release ishere. I’ve asked Cliff Mass for a comment, and will update this post when new info arrives. NOAA folks, and others, who favor the FV3 core, I would love to share your views as well.

Why couldn't they make two models, one on each core?  Well, in the current environment of science and education cuts, that might be too much to expect.

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It's annoying, I wish North America was wider, like Eurasia is, so we wouldn't have any influence from the Pacific.

 

If North America was too wide, we'd just live in a desert. Not what most would want. 

Not that the Atlantic's been great either (actually this year it's been atrocious, maybe there should be a study of correlation between average flight times to London and seasonal NYC snow in a winter. I'd bet the longer flight time winters have more NYC snow since that would probably indicate -NAO) but the Pacific is by far the biggest ocean, with most of the world's heat budget. We live in the westerlies, so whatever the Pacific decides to do we're essentially stuck with. The Pacific jet has especially been ridiculous this and last winter and we suffer as a result. Until that quiets down and the Atlantic can also slow down and develop some blocking, we're stuck with a cold/snowy West, upper MIdwest and NNE and lousy everywhere else. 

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5 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Imagine going the month of February without any snow at all.

I'm fine with just ending this "winter" if this is how it stays. I don't see how anyone can have joy in a pattern that's still stormy but no sustained cold (the 1-2 day dry cold shots like we have coming Friday are meaningless and this is still shaping up to be a very warm Feb). 

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23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'm fine with just ending this "winter" if this is how it stays. I don't see how anyone can have joy in a pattern that's still stormy but no sustained cold (the 1-2 day dry cold shots like we have coming Friday are meaningless and this is still shaping up to be a very warm Feb). 

If John Homenuk (Earthlight) is correct and he has some very convincing evidence, we maintain a strongly positive AO, NAO and a strong SPV right into the beginning of March. His main analog is 1990, which had a warmer than normal March with below normal snow. The NAM evolution this month has been almost identical to 2/90: 

 

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48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If John Homenuk (Earthlight) is correct and he has some very convincing evidence, we maintain a strongly positive AO, NAO and a strong SPV right into the beginning of March. His main analog is 1990, which had a warmer than normal March with below normal snow. The NAM evolution this month has been almost identical to 2/90: 

 

On a bright m note we had a decent snow event in March 1990.

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49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If John Homenuk (Earthlight) is correct and he has some very convincing evidence, we maintain a strongly positive AO, NAO and a strong SPV right into the beginning of March. His main analog is 1990, which had a warmer than normal March with below normal snow. The NAM evolution this month has been almost identical to 2/90: 

 

Eps has a better pattern towards the end of the month. The mjo might be in our favor. Just need the cold air.

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