psv88 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Crickets 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: Crickets They might be out by April at this rate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: They might be out by April at this rate The amazing part about this winter is the number of days with lows above freezing. Another one last night, and another tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I’m really curious to know the amount of hours we’ve spent below freezing (and hard freezing or 28°F) vs normal. I’ve had a few potted plants sitting outdoors all winter, half of them wouldn't survive our normal winters, especially in pots which expose the plant roots (the most cold sensitive part of a plant) to the ambient air temperatures. The Cilantro I planted in like Sept/Oct is still going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 21 hours ago, bluewave said: This was a controversial decision when it was made in 2016. https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2016/07/28/noaa-makes-decision-new-global-weather-model-controversy-likely/ NOAA has decided on the nuts and bolts of a new, next generation, weather model that will replace the present Global Forecast System (GFS model), and the choice is sure to spark some controversy. The choice boiled down to a system called MPAS vs FV3. Many meteorologists were rooting for MPAS, which was developed by NCAR, while NOAA was leaning toward the FV3 which was a project of the GFDL Lab. Dr. Cliff Mass (at the Univ. of Washington) has written several blog posts about how we have fallen behind in numerical weather modelling, and has been championing the MPAS system as the much better way forward. It looks like this will not happen, based on news I just heard about tonight. NOAA chose the FV3 today, instead of MPAS (The video above shows the FV3 in action) and I am anxious to hear the debate that will soon ensue. There are two sides to this issue, and smart people have different opinions on both sides, and NOAA’s press release ishere. I’ve asked Cliff Mass for a comment, and will update this post when new info arrives. NOAA folks, and others, who favor the FV3 core, I would love to share your views as well. Why couldn't they make two models, one on each core? Well, in the current environment of science and education cuts, that might be too much to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 NAM has a decent burst of moderate-heavy snow for Orange/Putnam northward tonight for a few hours before the flip to rain, wouldn't expect much accumulation but at least it would be a heavy mood snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 4 hours ago, psv88 said: The amazing part about this winter is the number of days with lows above freezing. Another one last night, and another tonight. I'm also surprised at the lack of cold highs too (sub 30). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Warm and wet winter. Sounds like lots of Mosquitoes anticipated for this summer, wonderful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I'm also surprised at the lack of cold highs too (sub 30). PAC air has completely dominated the pattern.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: PAC air has completely dominated the pattern.... It's annoying, I wish North America was wider, like Eurasia is, so we wouldn't have any influence from the Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: PAC air has completely dominated the pattern.... Imagine going the month of February without any snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: It's annoying, I wish North America was wider, like Eurasia is, so we wouldn't have any influence from the Pacific. If North America was too wide, we'd just live in a desert. Not what most would want. Not that the Atlantic's been great either (actually this year it's been atrocious, maybe there should be a study of correlation between average flight times to London and seasonal NYC snow in a winter. I'd bet the longer flight time winters have more NYC snow since that would probably indicate -NAO) but the Pacific is by far the biggest ocean, with most of the world's heat budget. We live in the westerlies, so whatever the Pacific decides to do we're essentially stuck with. The Pacific jet has especially been ridiculous this and last winter and we suffer as a result. Until that quiets down and the Atlantic can also slow down and develop some blocking, we're stuck with a cold/snowy West, upper MIdwest and NNE and lousy everywhere else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Imagine going the month of February without any snow at all. I'm fine with just ending this "winter" if this is how it stays. I don't see how anyone can have joy in a pattern that's still stormy but no sustained cold (the 1-2 day dry cold shots like we have coming Friday are meaningless and this is still shaping up to be a very warm Feb). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I'm fine with just ending this "winter" if this is how it stays. I don't see how anyone can have joy in a pattern that's still stormy but no sustained cold (the 1-2 day dry cold shots like we have coming Friday are meaningless and this is still shaping up to be a very warm Feb). If John Homenuk (Earthlight) is correct and he has some very convincing evidence, we maintain a strongly positive AO, NAO and a strong SPV right into the beginning of March. His main analog is 1990, which had a warmer than normal March with below normal snow. The NAM evolution this month has been almost identical to 2/90: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 48 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If John Homenuk (Earthlight) is correct and he has some very convincing evidence, we maintain a strongly positive AO, NAO and a strong SPV right into the beginning of March. His main analog is 1990, which had a warmer than normal March with below normal snow. The NAM evolution this month has been almost identical to 2/90: On a bright m note we had a decent snow event in March 1990. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 49 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If John Homenuk (Earthlight) is correct and he has some very convincing evidence, we maintain a strongly positive AO, NAO and a strong SPV right into the beginning of March. His main analog is 1990, which had a warmer than normal March with below normal snow. The NAM evolution this month has been almost identical to 2/90: Eps has a better pattern towards the end of the month. The mjo might be in our favor. Just need the cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Eps has a better pattern towards the end of the month. The mjo might be in our favor. Just need the cold air. That may be our last window for a decent chance. Though we have seen March snow quite a few times in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Quote Don't worry everybody. 18z GFS has something brewing at hour 384. Lock it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Don't worry everybody. 18z GFS has something brewing at hour 384. Lock it up. Hello? Seriously?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said: Hello? Seriously?? It's called sarcasm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Don't worry everybody. 18z GFS has something brewing at hour 384. Lock it up. I think the only thing that should be locked up is the GFS. What an awful model this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's called sarcasm. That's for the banter thread. You are now banned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I think the only thing that should be locked up is the GFS. What an awful model this winter. Every model has been awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Every model has been awful The Euro actually has been pretty decent this winter, I can't remember it showing many fantasy snowstorms at least within 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The Euro actually has been pretty decent this winter, I can't remember it showing many fantasy snowstorms at least within 7 days. It showed a few, even on the same day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It showed a few, even on the same day. What storm? The only one was the early December storm maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 39 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: What storm? The only one was the early December storm maybe? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 If you want a snowstorm according to the 12Z EURO you can head south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Day 9 gets kicked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: If you want a snowstorm according to the 12Z EURO you can head south This winter that sounds about right. I'll head to my parents in myrtle beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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