Barman49 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 One of the worst looking winter maps you could possibly imagine. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Might see a bit of surprise snow in some of the interior suburbs tonight, radar looks decent and temps seem a bit colder than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Might see a bit of surprise snow in some of the interior suburbs tonight, radar looks decent and temps seem a bit colder than modeled. Could be, currently sitting at 28 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 GFS a little warmer for Thursday than 12Z, CMC a touch colder than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 54 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS a little warmer for Thursday than 12Z, CMC a touch colder than 12Z The snowfall map about the same as 18Z. I don't believe it for a second though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 The GFS is such an extreme outlier for Thursday right now it’s not even funny. No other model (Euro/EPS, UKMET, ICON,CMC,NAM) look anything like it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 6Z GSF pretty much the same snowfall map for the HV 4 runs in a row. As you say it's pretty much on its own so most likely out to lunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: The GFS is such an extreme outlier for Thursday right now it’s not even funny. No other model (Euro/EPS, UKMET, ICON,CMC,NAM) look anything like it Agree I'm hoping for a miracle but there is nothing to force this south. This will be an all rain event for most of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree I'm hoping for a miracle but there is nothing to force this south. This will be an all rain event for most of the area. upton has us near 50 on Thursday.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Agree I'm hoping for a miracle but there is nothing to force this south. This will be an all rain event for most of the area. The GFS is honestly a waste of a model, we can all see where this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 6Z GSF pretty much the same snowfall map for the HV 4 runs in a row. As you say it's pretty much on its own so most likely out to lunch. You can see the snow line is receding a bit north each run, eventually I think this will be start as snow from Orange/Putnam County North and then quick change to ice/rain for the interior suburbs, probably will need to be near Albany to see a real front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 I84 looks to be the dividing line for any real snow with this, from looking at the thurway cameras it also seemed to be the dividing line for last nights event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 53 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: You can see the snow line is receding a bit north each run, eventually I think this will be start as snow from Orange/Putnam County North and then quick change to ice/rain for the interior suburbs, probably will need to be near Albany to see a real front end thump As Expected the snow line continues north on the 12Z GFS. The 7 inch mark over southern Orange County which had been consistent for 4 straight runs is now down to 4 inches. As you stated it will move north towards Albany, as the mentally challenged GFS slowly catches on with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: As Expected the snow line continues north on the 12Z GFS. The 7 inch mark over southern Orange County which had been consistent for 4 straight runs is now down to 4 inches. As you stated it will move north towards Albany, as the mentally challenged GFS slowly catches on with the other models. The GFS’s severe cold bias is laughable. Pathetic model. It’s just finally getting a clue now, it should have that storm figured out sometime Friday afternoon..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Need at least 3 major models showing the same snowfall outcome within 4 days to even consider it happening. Years past, one of them could catch on early and lead the way and the others would soon follow suit.This winter the only way that happens is if the one outlier shows less cold/snow, then all others rush to get in line like a fat man at an all you can eat buffet. Every single model correction has been to less snow, no reason to start doubting it now. TLDR: Weather Models this winter: More snow? GTFOH LESS snow? NOW we're talkin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS’s severe cold bias is laughable. Pathetic model. It’s just finally getting a clue now, it should have that storm figured out sometime Friday afternoon..... The other 12Z models did tick south a bit so they aren't way off from where the GFS now is at 12Z. I would move everything about 50 miles north of that map as the likely final outcome, think our interior zones may get an inch or two before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 All models have some front end snow north of NYC. Again, the further north the more snow. Right now I think around and north of 84 sees 1-2, maybe 3 inches before changeover. You have to be north of I90 to see all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: All models have some front end snow north of NYC. Again, the further north the more snow. Right now I think north of 84 sees 1-2, maybe 3 inches before changeover. You have to be north of I90 to see all snow. I actually think your area is close to a significant front end thump with this, everyone south of Albany will definitely go to rain but the storm comes in pretty juiced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Euro/GFS both have northern parts of the city starting as snow. I know it'll last for 30 minutes and be white rain but in this winter is anything is anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The other 12Z models did tick south a bit so they aren't way off from where the GFS now is at 12Z. I would move everything about 50 miles north of that map as the likely final outcome, think our interior zones may get an inch or two before the changeover You are going to have to be north of I-84 to see snow of any significance at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You are going to have to be north of I-84 to see snow of any significance at all Agree. 50 miles north of that map would push the 4 inch line north of I84. It will also depend how much Sleet/ZR mixes in during the initial precip surge for places like Ulster/Dutchess that could limit totals but it's not that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 The NAM is now on board with starting my area as snow Wednesday night (NAM, GFS, Euro all show this) it is such an awful winter where I would be satisfied if I saw wet flakes at the beginning of a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 NAM ticked south but looks more like sleet/ZR for the far interior zones than snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 GFS now has 50s to the Mid HV Thursday, has gone from the coldest model to the warmest model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 almost comical at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: almost comical at this point The GFS is embarrassingly awful. Your tax dollars hard at work. And as far as Thursday trending to an all rain event....surprise surprise, you were able to see that coming from a mile away, just follow the pattern since the beginning of December. We’ve seen this movie before, wash, rinse, repeat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 If the euro or ukie doesn't have a snowstorm we need to just ignore the threat 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS is embarrassingly awful. Your tax dollars hard at work. And as far as Thursday trending to an all rain event....surprise surprise, you were able to see that coming from a mile away, just follow the pattern since the beginning of December. We’ve seen this movie before, wash, rinse, repeat.... It's still not an all rain event for most NW of the city but point taken, it's an inch or less to a washout for most of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS is embarrassingly awful. Your tax dollars hard at work. And as far as Thursday trending to an all rain event....surprise surprise, you were able to see that coming from a mile away, just follow the pattern since the beginning of December. We’ve seen this movie before, wash, rinse, repeat.... The GFS sucks but this is not an all rain event for those north of city. All models show some front end snows, especially mid hudson valley and north. Right now I would still say 1-2 inches around 84 before changeover and 2-4 up to I90. Similar to totals last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/8/2020 at 8:29 PM, jm1220 said: Exactly. No blocking, rampaging Pacific Jet and SE ridge, it’s rain. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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