Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: They couldn’t get winter forecast right, why bother to trust them for summer? Not sure who you mean by "they" The question was directed at @donsutherland1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Just now, Rtd208 said: Not sure who you mean by "they" The question was directed at @donsutherland1 I think he means in general. Any long range forecasting is a crapshoot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think he means in general. Any long range forecasting is a crapshoot. Guy, your beating a dead horse. We all know that. Just like you are beating a dead horse saying "this winter sucks" 50 times in every thread on two different forums. Come on I expect better from you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Euro/EPS and UKMET want nothing to do with Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Just now, Rtd208 said: Guy, you beating a dead horse. We all know that. Just like you are beating a dead horse saying "this winter sucks" 50 times in every thread on two different forums. Come on I expect better from you. I'm just commenting on his post. I think that's what he means. What do you want me to say ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Just now, snowman19 said: Euro/EPS and UKMET want nothing to do with Thursday Cmc also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Cmc also Yep nor does the ICON. It’s the GFS vs the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Warm storm for thursday, but looks like a true arctic blast for a change this winter on friday. Could struggle to make it out of the 20s that day. Just a brief arctic blast though ... will go right back to the warm pattern very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Warm storm for thursday, but looks like a true arctic blast for a change this winter on friday. Could struggle to make it out of the 20s that day. Just a brief arctic blast though ... will go right back to the warm pattern very quickly. Will probably modify into 30s and low 20s at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Will probably modify into 30s and low 20s at night. Upton already updated temps to mid 30s and near 20 at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 49 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Upton already updated temps to mid 30s and near 20 at night Euro has us going from 60° Thursday to well down into the teens for Fri--Sat am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Warm storm for thursday, but looks like a true arctic blast for a change this winter on friday. Could struggle to make it out of the 20s that day. Just a brief arctic blast though ... will go right back to the warm pattern very quickly. Yea to me it's a waste, I don't need to freeze between two rainstorms, rather have Spring if the pattern never changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 GFS not caving with the colder solution for Thursday, I don't trust it at all but it will either score a coup or I will never bother looking at this model again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 GFS not caving with the colder solution for Thursday, I don't trust it at all but it will either score a coup or I will never bother looking at this model againWhat the GFS shows doesn't make any sense. So it's most likely wrong. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS not caving with the colder solution for Thursday, I don't trust it at all but it will either score a coup or I will never bother looking at this model again Lol! You will look at it every single run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS not caving with the colder solution for Thursday, I don't trust it at all but it will either score a coup or I will never bother looking at this model again Lol! You will look at it every single run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS not caving with the colder solution for Thursday, I don't trust it at all but it will either score a coup or I will never bother looking at this model again The GFS isn’t caving from being the worst model out there. Its severe cold bias is well known now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Some people have given up since January. As in all things in life Ant, you NEVER give up. Never... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Lol! You will look at it every single run. It's unfortunate that it runs 4 times a day so it's harder to avoid looking at but I am done with this model if it's really this bad 4 days before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It's unfortunate that it runs 4 times a day so it's harder to avoid looking at but I am done with this model if it's really this bad 4 days before a storm. Gfs shifted southeast from 12z. Gfs had led the way a few times this winter. Let's see if it gets this right. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs shifted southeast from 12z. Gfs had led the way a few times this winter. Let's see if it gets this right. Its shifted SE the last 4 runs but none of the other models are trending (CMC actually has been trending north each run) so it's either onto something no other model is seeing or it's in complete lala land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 26 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: As in all things in life Ant, you NEVER give up. Never... If you live in the city especially, this winter is pretty much toast. March can't make up for the whole season. That'd be like having a cool and wet JJA with terrible beach weather and then hoping September corrects it with 90's and sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Make up for the whole season what? Total snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said: Sorry but we have asked you repeatedly to post climate change stuff in the climate change thread. Please post your climate change stuff there and keep politics out of the discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 4 hours ago, wishcast_hater said: They couldn’t get winter forecast right, why bother to trust them for summer? The question was directed at Don. I hope you weren't taking a shot at him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Make up for the whole season what? Total snowfall? My point is simple, those who enjoy winter around here want cold temps and long periods of snow cover. Have we had that this season? Of course not, and so even if March is a rockin month that won't make this an A grade winter. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 For relevant context, my winter idea was warm, but not warm enough. Snowfall for NYC was shown to be somewhat below normal and below normal in Philadelphia to Washington, DC. The statistical probability of April's having a mean temperature of 48° or below (referenced CFSv2 map), which last occurred in 1975 (47.9°), is now less than 1% on account of the warming that has occurred since then. The coldest April since then was April 2018 (49.5°). The last similarly cold or colder April prior to 1975 was April 1943 (46.9°). So, even before the warming of recent decades, such a monthly temperature was a fairly uncommon event. With shorter wave lengths in April, one can't profile the months using teleconnections or ENSO. However, there has been one powerful clue somewhat prior to the start of exceptionally cold Aprils: the presence of severely cold air relative to normal across much or all of Canada during the second half of March. March 16-31, 1943: March 16-31, 1975: From this far out, not even the best ensemble systems can reliably forecast anomalies at such timeframes. Forecasts for extremes need to be backed by strong evidence precisely because extremes are, by definition, low probability scenarios. In the end, while I am not sure whether April will wind up cooler or warmer than normal at this point in February, the climate record (especially when one considers the observed ongoing warming) strongly argues against the kind of scenario on the CFSv2 map (also at very low skill at this timeframe). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Rjay said: The question was directed at Don. I hope you weren't taking a shot at him. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 It's only 96 hours away, and of course on it's own right now but why can't I at least dream? Unfortunately even if this came to fruition as depicted by the 18Z GFS cut the snow totals a few inches at least as some of the frozen over the HV is freezing rain . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I had relatives who lived there for many years. They always told me" you really do not know what REAL winter is". It is truly a depressing place, unless you enjoy chopping wood and snowmobiles. And moose. Now, moose are kinda cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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