MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 39 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 6Z GFS was less amped than 0Z and Euro looked a little less amped than 12Z, I know I'm, grasping at straws though, this isn't our storm, it never is this winter, at best it might be a front end snow for the interior portions of the forum Check out the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Need this colder. Gfs was flatter than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I need to sell the house and move to Maine. Caribou maine i hear golden spot for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Need this colder. Gfs was flatter than 6z. Good track. Should of been a snowier result. GFS is unreliable with thermals this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 26 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Good track. Should of been a snowier result. GFS is unreliable with thermals this far out. No cold high to the north is the other issue here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 The current pattern does not support snow. If you like rain I think there will be plenty of it in the mid to long range. It's an active pattern. Disclaimer: That does not mean we can't see a rogue snowstorm or two but I think if it happens it will be at the tail end of February or the beginning of March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 28 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The current pattern does not support snow. If you like rain I think there will be plenty of it in the mid to long range. It's an active pattern. Disclaimer: That does not mean we can't see a rogue snowstorm or two but I think if it happens it will be at the tail end of February or the beginning of March. It snowed last night at my house & snow is expected again overnight.1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Good track. Should of been a snowier result. GFS is unreliable with thermals this far out. No it should not have been. There is no cold high. It’s not a problem with thermals it’s a problem with cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 12Z GFS for Thursday. Something to watch for northern suburbs Thursday night, but personally I give it little credence atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Borrowed from JB's post this AM-but the CFS for April-here comes winter! - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Borrowed from JB's post this AM-but the CFS for April-here comes winter! - I am not sure I agree with that. I think we start to warm up substantially (above normal) by mid April IMO. Overall I think April will wind up above normal this year. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I am not sure I agree with that. I think we start to warm up substantially (above normal) by mid April IMO. Overall I think April will wind up above normal this year. I guess we'll see. it's the CFS so take it for what's it worth....(or any model 2 months out) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Borrowed from JB's post this AM-but the CFS for April-here comes winter! - The climatological probability of April's have a temperature anomaly of 5 degrees or more below normal in the New York City area (including NJ and CT) is low. At this point in time, the drivers of the April pattern cannot reliably be pinned down. It is perilous to assume an extreme outcome, especially from this far out. For a reminder of the risks involved, one need look no farther than the forecasts from multiple outlets concerning a severely cold winter that were held through mid-January by which the fundamental winter pattern (strong AO+/EPO+ and related outcomes) were widely evident. Indeed, recognizing the pattern evolution and to its credit, BAMWX threw out its 1995-96 analog at the end of December and has done exceptionally well since then. That move highlights a separate risk that is often ignored: analogs can anchor one to a bad forecast if one holds onto them too long when there is little evidence that things are evolving toward those analogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: The probability of April's have a temperature anomaly of 5 degrees or more below normal in the New York City area (including NJ and CT) is low. At this point in time, the drivers of the April pattern cannot reliably be pinned down. It is perilous to assume an extreme outcome, especially from this far out. For a reminder of the risks involved, one need look no farther than the forecasts from multiple outlets concerning a severely cold winter that were held through mid-January by which the fundamental winter pattern (strong AO+/EPO+ and related outcomes) were widely evident. Indeed, recognizing the pattern evolution and to its credit, BAMWX threw out its 1995-96 analog at the end of December and has done exceptionally well since then. That move highlights a separate risk that is often ignored: analogs can anchor one to a bad forecast if one holds onto them too long when there is little evidence that things are evolving toward those analogs. yep know when to hold em and when to throw them. When models backed off the late Jan pattern change about a week out, that's when I threw in the towel personally. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it's the CFS so take it for what's it worth....(or any model 2 months out) Watch this happen along with a cold and active March. It is like clock work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The climatological probability of April's have a temperature anomaly of 5 degrees or more below normal in the New York City area (including NJ and CT) is low. At this point in time, the drivers of the April pattern cannot reliably be pinned down. It is perilous to assume an extreme outcome, especially from this far out. For a reminder of the risks involved, one need look no farther than the forecasts from multiple outlets concerning a severely cold winter that were held through mid-January by which the fundamental winter pattern (strong AO+/EPO+ and related outcomes) were widely evident. Indeed, recognizing the pattern evolution and to its credit, BAMWX threw out its 1995-96 analog at the end of December and has done exceptionally well since then. That move highlights a separate risk that is often ignored: analogs can anchor one to a bad forecast if one holds onto them too long when there is little evidence that things are evolving toward those analogs. Honestly JB should not being throwing out maps like this so far in advance IMO. We are talking April which is almost 2 months away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Watch this happen along with a cold and active March. It is like clock work. would not mind a raw chilly april into may anything to hold back the heat for as long as possible... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Just now, nycwinter said: would not mind a raw chilly april into may anything to hold back the heat for as long as possible... Blizzard for opening day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Honestly JB should not being throwing out maps like this so far in advance IMO. We are talking April which is almost 2 months away. And because of his bust this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 45 minutes ago, Animal said: It snowed last night at my house & snow is expected again overnight.1-2 inches You live in the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 48 minutes ago, Animal said: It snowed last night at my house & snow is expected again overnight.1-2 inches Same here. But, that can't be true. Winter is over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Honestly JB should not being throwing out maps like this so far in advance IMO. We are talking April which is almost 2 months away. To average 5 degrees below the current base mean temperature for April (1981-2010), April would need a monthly mean temperature of 48 degrees. Not even April 1982 achieved such cold despite the record cold early in the month. The last time that happened was 1975. Statistically and historically, the probability of the CFSv2 and JB verifying with such cold in the NYC region is very low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Same here. But, that can't be true. Winter is over. Some people have given up since January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: To average 5 degrees below the current base mean temperature for April (1981-2010), April would need a monthly mean temperature of 48 degrees. Not even April 1982 achieved such cold despite the record cold early in the month. The last time that happened was 1975. Statistically and historically, the probability of the CFSv2 and JB verifying with such cold in the NYC region is very low. Any preliminary thoughts on spring/summer temps and precipitation?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Any preliminary thoughts on spring/summer temps and precipitation?? From this vantage point, spring is looking to be somewhat milder than normal, but a lot more variable than the winter has been, in my view. Parts of Canada may be cooler than normal, especially central and western Canada. Of course, things could still change. Precipitation could be above normal in the region, especially early in the spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 I know it is a ways out there but do you think we are headed for a hot summer?? I have seen this mentioned by a few meteorologists already including Larry Cosgrove. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 45 minutes ago, nycwinter said: would not mind a raw chilly april into may anything to hold back the heat for as long as possible... Nah I'll pass. It would be another kick in the nuts after a horrendous winter. I hope it's warm and sunny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 hours ago, NYCSNOWMAN2020 said: Caribou maine i hear golden spot for snow I had relatives who lived there for many years. They always told me" you really do not know what REAL winter is". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I know it is a ways out there but do you think we are headed for a hot summer?? I have seen this mentioned by a few meteorologists already including Larry Cosgrove. A lot depends on the evolution of ENSO. A hot summer is plausible, but so are other outcomes if El Niño conditions try to redevelop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Any preliminary thoughts on spring/summer temps and precipitation?? They couldn’t get winter forecast right, why bother to trust them for summer? 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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