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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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59 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

But the 0Z ICON and Canadian still have it reaching us-and the 06 GFS has a great track but liquid here

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_59.pnggem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

Icon and Canadian are the worst models ever. Not saying it won’t change in fact I think it’s coming just the models are still confused how to phase those two pieces of energies.

that gfs run is from yesterday.

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22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Icon is a big snowstorm next weekend for the area. Strong coastal storm.

Once again a strong HP is in place for days prior to the storm then as the storm approaches it escapes and the heaviest snow is inland - this solution has a reasonable chance of verifying IMO and its only a week away

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_58.pngicon_asnow_neus_61.png

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24 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

Has it ever been right? It's a hires model correct?

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Icon is the worst model ever for thermals. It’s always too warm. Track wise it’s been a lot better than the worst which has to be the Canadian with its erratic placements of lows

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9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Once again a strong HP is in place for days prior to the storm then as the storm approaches it escapes and the heaviest snow is inland - this solution has a reasonable chance of verifying IMO and its only a week away

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_58.pngicon_asnow_neus_61.png

I’m sorry but you aren’t changing to rain with a 984 low off the coast New Jersey. This would be a huge blizzard if the icon verified. Doubt it is right whether it’s a blizzard or not but with that track, the euro had a similar track yesterday at 12z and it was way colder and it never changed to rain unless you were smith town Long Island  and east.  The depiction on the euro was even more tucked! I believe we got a big storm coming

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Icon is the worst model ever for thermals. It’s always too warm. Track wise it’s been a lot better than the worst which has to be the Canadian with its erratic placements of lows
GFS seems to be flip flopping with each run with the storm for the 2nd. It's a cutter than of the coast, back to a cutter back to off the coast. Next run should be a cutter again.

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2 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

GFS seems to be flip flopping with each run with the storm for the 2nd. It's a cutter than of the coast, back to a cutter back to off the coast. Next run should be a cutter again.

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Nope not a cutter 

Very strong storm just offshore

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