Barman49 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Hopefully it's wrong because I have never been this bored before.At least baseball starts next week. That might be all we have. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 If the GFS/ICON verify this winter won't stand out as especially horrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Mt. Holly Updated AFD discounts the EURO solution late week: SO WHAT COULD HAPPEN THAT ULTIMATELY INFLUENCES SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEK? WELL, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE FIRST EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF RAIN (AND PROBABLY SOME SNOW IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT). FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH SHOULD TREND SURFACE TEMPERATURES UPWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD, SO EXPECTING SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY TAME, EVEN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK THROUGH THE AREA. BY MONDAY EVENING, THE GREATEST POPS ARE SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN QPF DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, AIDED BY ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SOUTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW. THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOWER, PRECIPITATION MAY NOCTURNALLY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN. AS THE SECONDARY PERTURBATION MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DROP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS GENERALLY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-SCALE DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. HOW FAST THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND HOW THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION APPEAR QUITE DIFFERENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM IN EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPSTREAM KICKER, AND THIS LEADS TO A LIFTING SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A WARM/WET SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE GFS/CMC HAVE THE REVERSE APPEARANCE IN THE LARGE SCALE, LEADING TO A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE EJECTING SURFACE LOW FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THE RESULT IS A COLDER SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA, WITH RAIN ON THURSDAY MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING FORECAST IS COLDER (GIVEN A FAIRLY DECENT MODEL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION) BUT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES WITH TEMPERATURES, TIMING, AND ULTIMATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. I ALSO BROADENED THE PERIOD OF POPS INTO FRIDAY FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST, THE LARGE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES ALREADY EXISTING AMONG THE MODELS SUGGEST COLLECTIVE PHASE ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE. SECOND, THE KICKER SYSTEM MAY GENERATE A SLUGGISH SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY. THUS, I DISCOUNT THE ECMWF'S RATHER DRY LOOK OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE LARGE-SCALE PHENOMENA TREND IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS, AS A LARGE NUMBER OF OUTCOMES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NON-WINTER WE HAVE HAD SO FAR), BUT THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT COLDER SOLUTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LATE-WEEK SYSTEM. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET BUT COLDER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Gfs is folding Rain for vday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs is folding Rain for vday nothing to support a snowstorm-every telly remains unfavorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: nothing to support a snowstorm-every telly remains unfavorable. It can snow in bad patterns but this winter finds every way to screw us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: It can snow in bad patterns but this winter finds every way to screw us. It almost never snows in bad patterns. Take a break brother. You are spiraling. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 2:56 PM, JustinRP37 said: I swear some people think NYC is geographically located where Albany is when they show maps... well you can have a decent snowstorm in march even in the city so their is still hope... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, nycwinter said: well you can have a decent snowstorm in march even in the city so their is still hope... More like it's located in the twilight zone this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 23 hours ago, jm1220 said: Pretty much. I won’t be optimistic at all for anything until those underlying conditions change. This likely rides the crazy SE ridge like the rest and cuts inland at the end. Exactly. No blocking, rampaging Pacific Jet and SE ridge, it’s rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Exactly. No blocking, rampaging Pacific Jet and SE ridge, it’s rain. It's so hard to get snow to the coast. Depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's so hard to get snow to the coast. Depressing. 812 , I feel your pain brother but this year it is tough to get snow ANYWHERE and yep it's been very depressing especially after last winter. This year is not over yet but hopefully we get ours NEXT winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's so hard to get snow to the coast. Depressing. I am sitting at a corporate event and not one person here misses the snow. Everyone I spoke to said that they never want to see snow again. And these are all scientists who understand climate change. They just hate the snow. So I popped in here to read Anthony’s rants about lack of snow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 hours ago, psv88 said: It almost never snows in bad patterns. Take a break brother. You are spiraling. It definitely has snowed in bad patterns, we've had thread the needle events before, it just doesn't ever happen this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It definitely has snowed in bad patterns, we've had thread the needle events before, it just doesn't ever happen this winter Thread the needle doesn’t mean it’s a bad pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Thread the needle doesn’t mean it’s a bad pattern... Yea I can't remember a winter where we've had a pattern this bad for the entire winter, usually we get a week or two of at least some adjustment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea I can't remember a winter where we've had a pattern this bad for the entire winter, usually we get a week or two of at least some adjustment December was decent around here. Got 6” of snow from 2-3 events. Got another 3.5” in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: December was decent around here. Got 6” of snow from 2-3 events. Got another 3.5” in January True the beginning of December wasn't awful although the storms were dissapointments for the city, then there was the miracle snow from the GLC but other than that its been rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 hours ago, nycwinter said: well you can have a decent snowstorm in march even in the city so their is still hope... In early March I am still down but by about mid March I’m ready for it to be over. I hate spring as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 GFS in a span of 4 runs goes from supressed to our south to an inland track with temps hitting 50 for the region, I'm so done with this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 4 hours ago, psv88 said: It almost never snows in bad patterns. Take a break brother. You are spiraling. I think a lot of us up and down the East Coast feel like spiralling. I see you guys haven't had it much better...it's hard to know how to just accept a winter this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS in a span of 4 runs goes from supressed to our south to an inland track with temps hitting 50 for the region, I'm so done with this winter Was very easy to call this rain, just follow the pattern and what countless other events have been doing all season. It's rain. Maybe Syracuse and Adirondacks can get a nice event, or the Ohio Valley. Just won't be us until the Pacific jet slows down, SE ridge can get squashed, and/or the NAO cooperates. It just won't happen. I couldn't care less what some 180 or 240hr model shows until those factors change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 53 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Was very easy to call this rain, just follow the pattern and what countless other events have been doing all season. It's rain. Maybe Syracuse and Adirondacks can get a nice event, or the Ohio Valley. Just won't be us until the Pacific jet slows down, SE ridge can get squashed, and/or the NAO cooperates. It just won't happen. I couldn't care less what some 180 or 240hr model shows until those factors change. Anything over 100 hours is fantasy but the pattern sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 It looks like another bout of heavy rain could be looming for mid/late week. If we keep getting enough of these systems as we move into late winter/early spring that will only build the flooding issues as we move ahead in time. Something to keep an eye on as we move into March/April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 If only there was blocking with this very active pattern. We would have been crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 10 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS in a span of 4 runs goes from supressed to our south to an inland track with temps hitting 50 for the region, I'm so done with this winter When the euro is on our side , it busts but when it's not on our side it doesnt bust. What an area we live in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: If only there was blocking with this very active pattern. We would have been crushed. Yep. So much for the the solar minimum giving us blocking this winter. No where to be found. Still keeping hopes alive we get a rogue snowstorm before spring in this god awful pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: When the euro is on our side , it busts but when it's not on our side it doesnt bust. What an area we live in. 6Z GFS was less amped than 0Z and Euro looked a little less amped than 12Z, I know I'm, grasping at straws though, this isn't our storm, it never is this winter, at best it might be a front end snow for the interior portions of the forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: When the euro is on our side , it busts but when it's not on our side it doesnt bust. What an area we live in. I need to sell the house and move to Maine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: When the euro is on our side , it busts but when it's not on our side it doesnt bust. What an area we live in. Anthony you have just provided a weather models definition of Murphy’s Law. As always ...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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