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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Garbage airmass, no blocking. And that’s the severely cold-biased op GFS showing that, not to worry, that’ll verify as an all rain event for our entire forum by Thursday 

Pretty much. I won’t be optimistic at all for anything until those underlying conditions change. This likely rides the crazy SE ridge like the rest and cuts inland at the end. 

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Garbage airmass, no blocking. And that’s the severely cold-biased op GFS showing that, not to worry, that’ll verify as an all rain event for our entire forum by Thursday 

Unfortunately I agree, I would be surprised if the final outcome isn't a lot a warmer than whats being depicted on the GFS. It has just an absolutely nonexistent winter basically anywhere south of I84

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5 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

Euro looks like it'll cut. No high up in Canada.

 

 

Edit: Yup, cutter.

 

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It does. It doesn't mean it will verify though. I believe it was wrong with yesterday's low in the medium range. It had it well west of our area at this time frame and we all know it basically went over the area. It has not been good this winter just like all the rest. 

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18 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It does. It doesn't mean it will verify though. I believe it was wrong with yesterday's low in the medium range. It had it well west of our area at this time frame and we all know it basically went over the area. It has not been good this winter just like all the rest. 

Euro - UKIE somewhat similar

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It does. It doesn't mean it will verify though. I believe it was wrong with yesterday's low in the medium range. It had it well west of our area at this time frame and we all know it basically went over the area. It has not been good this winter just like all the rest. 
I'm not saying it's right or wrong. No model has been great but I'd rather have the Euro showing snow than the icon. Curious what the ensemble will show.

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once again the upper air configuration and the HP to the north if it can build in Quebec at the right timing will determine the track of LP
That's it. The GFS has a 1030 the Canadian 1040. The Euro nothing. Hopefully the Euro picks up on this going forward.

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