Mid to Long Range Threats

[HeadInTheClouds]

NWS Albany discussion for peeps in northern sections. Still calling for 1-2 inches snow/sleet then some ice late wednesday/early Thursday. They also mention precip possibly changing back to snow as 3rd wave moves NE on Friday. 

 

The high pressure area will be exiting off the New England coast
and low pressure will be lifting from the Tennessee Valley
towards the upper Ohio River Valley. Warm advection will be
occurring and a period precip will be moving northward towards
the area from the mid Atlantic states, arriving after midnight
for far southern areas and reaching northern areas by the late
night hours. Initially, the temp profile is cold enough for all
snow, but warming temps aloft will quickly allow this to
changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Most areas should see a
light accumulation of snow (about 1 or 2 inches) before mixed
precip begins. There could be a glaze of ice (0.10 inch or less)
and a dusting of sleet within the mixed precip as well. Temps
will be warming in the boundary layer as well, with the
southerly flow and no blocking high keeping the low level cold
air in place. As a result, surface temps look to rise above
freezing for valley areas by the mid to late morning, changing
any precip over to rain. High terrain areas of the Adirondacks
and Greens may linger with some freezing rain into the
afternoon, but the bulk of the precip will be winding down by
that point, as the best isentropic lift shifts away from the
area.

Another wave of low pressure will be developing across the mid
Atlantic States and this will be lifting northeast along the
eastern seaboard for Thursday night into Friday. Although there
should be a break in precip from about Thursday afternoon
through Thursday evening, steady precip will be arriving once
again for Thursday night. There are still some differences in
the models regarding the exact track of this storm system, which
will have an impact on p-types. Although the best moisture flux
and heaviest precip should be mainly east of the area across
New England, our area should still be seeing some steady and
occasionally moderate precip for late Thursday night into Friday
morning.

As the wave of low pressure lifts northeast along the coast,
colder air (both at the surface and aloft) will rush into the
region from the northwest. This will allow for a changeover back
to snow, first occurring across high terrain and northwestern
areas, for late Thursday night into Friday. There still are
significant model differences on when this occurs and how much
precip falls after the changeover. The latest 12z GFS is an
outlier, even when compared to the 12z GEFS members, so our
forecast is closer to a compromise of the 12z NAM/ECMWF, which
favors a colder solution and snow prolonging through the day on
Friday. As of right now, a light to moderate accumulation of
snow is possible, especially for northern and high terrain
areas. Temperatures will be warmest on Friday morning in the mid
20s to mid 30s and falling during the daytime. By later in the
day, gusty northwest winds will be developing as well, as the
storm really cranks up over eastern New England.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

28 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

NWS Albany discussion for peeps in northern sections. Still calling for 1-2 inches snow/sleet then some ice late wednesday/early Thursday. They also mention precip possibly changing back to snow as 3rd wave moves NE on Friday. 

 

The high pressure area will be exiting off the New England coast
and low pressure will be lifting from the Tennessee Valley
towards the upper Ohio River Valley. Warm advection will be
occurring and a period precip will be moving northward towards
the area from the mid Atlantic states, arriving after midnight
for far southern areas and reaching northern areas by the late
night hours. Initially, the temp profile is cold enough for all
snow, but warming temps aloft will quickly allow this to
changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Most areas should see a
light accumulation of snow (about 1 or 2 inches) before mixed
precip begins. There could be a glaze of ice (0.10 inch or less)
and a dusting of sleet within the mixed precip as well. Temps
will be warming in the boundary layer as well, with the
southerly flow and no blocking high keeping the low level cold
air in place. As a result, surface temps look to rise above
freezing for valley areas by the mid to late morning, changing
any precip over to rain. High terrain areas of the Adirondacks
and Greens may linger with some freezing rain into the
afternoon, but the bulk of the precip will be winding down by
that point, as the best isentropic lift shifts away from the
area.

Another wave of low pressure will be developing across the mid
Atlantic States and this will be lifting northeast along the
eastern seaboard for Thursday night into Friday. Although there
should be a break in precip from about Thursday afternoon
through Thursday evening, steady precip will be arriving once
again for Thursday night. There are still some differences in
the models regarding the exact track of this storm system, which
will have an impact on p-types. Although the best moisture flux
and heaviest precip should be mainly east of the area across
New England, our area should still be seeing some steady and
occasionally moderate precip for late Thursday night into Friday
morning.

As the wave of low pressure lifts northeast along the coast,
colder air (both at the surface and aloft) will rush into the
region from the northwest. This will allow for a changeover back
to snow, first occurring across high terrain and northwestern
areas, for late Thursday night into Friday. There still are
significant model differences on when this occurs and how much
precip falls after the changeover. The latest 12z GFS is an
outlier, even when compared to the 12z GEFS members, so our
forecast is closer to a compromise of the 12z NAM/ECMWF, which
favors a colder solution and snow prolonging through the day on
Friday. As of right now, a light to moderate accumulation of
snow is possible, especially for northern and high terrain
areas. Temperatures will be warmest on Friday morning in the mid
20s to mid 30s and falling during the daytime. By later in the
day, gusty northwest winds will be developing as well, as the
storm really cranks up over eastern New England.

Their forecast area goes all the way Into the dacks and southern greens and includes peaks over 3,000’. I would take that with a grain of salt south of kingston

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Their forecast area goes all the way Into the dacks and southern greens and includes peaks over 3,000’. I would take that with a grain of salt south of kingston

Yes, I know, I'm still expecting an inch or so of snow/sleet and some zr before the rain. North of 84 should see that. I'm not so sure about back end snow on Friday though. 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Everything has trended badly for us since the beginning of December. Really right after that minor snow event at the beginning of the month, things started to go to very badly and they never came back again. I’m seeing some posts on social media about pattern flips “after mid-February”...I’ll believe it when I see it, I very seriously doubt some miracle end of February or March winter comeback 

We've had serious February torches (record breaking) only to completely reverse in March.

With the AO setting new + records this month and the prolonged +NAO/AO since December it would be surprising if it didn't swing the other way soon.

We've had many extreme flips lately there's no middle ground anymore and things look a lot more active than 2011-2012 which was one of the few winter torches that never flipped.

92-93 is a decent analog.

[NYCweatherNOW]

Watch for that low to trend south and have rain turn to snow Friday evening. GEFS has it

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Watch for that low to trend south and have rain turn to snow Friday evening. GEFS has it

There may be wet flakes at the very end down to the NW suburbs but that's about it.

[HVSnowLover]

4 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yes, I know, I'm still expecting an inch or so of snow/sleet and some zr before the rain. North of 84 should see that. I'm not so sure about back end snow on Friday though. 

Probably mostly sleet/ZR with the initial push in your area, then rain and maybe ending as snow Friday afternoon.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We've had serious February torches (record breaking) only to completely reverse in March.

With the AO setting new + records this month and the prolonged +NAO/AO since December it would be surprising if it didn't swing the other way soon.

We've had many extreme flips lately there's no middle ground anymore and things look a lot more active than 2011-2012 which was one of the few winter torches that never flipped.

92-93 is a decent analog.

Why is 1993 an analog for March? That was a totally historic March pattern back then and I see no parallels at all to this winter, it was an entirely, completely different climate regime back then to boot. Even assuming we “flip” in early March, you have about the first 15 days of the month, then you have to hope for a very anomalous pattern, thread the needle, to get major snowstorms along the east coast south of New England (i.e.1993), even southern New England gets shaky at that point. Post 3/15, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Why is 1993 an analog for March? That was a totally historic March pattern back then and I see no parallels at all to this winter, it was an entirely, completely different climate regime back then to boot. Even assuming we “flip” in early March, you have about the first 15 days of the month, then you have to hope for a very anomalous pattern, thread the needle, to get major snowstorms along the east coast south of New England (i.e.1993), even southern New England gets shaky at that point. Post 3/15, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day 

Didn't we have March two years ago produce like 4 snowstorms for the area, it can definitely happen if the pattern is right. (Yes I'm aware some of those storms were dissapointing but definitely performed bigtime for parts of the region) 

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Didn't we have March two years ago produce like 4 snowstorms for the area, it can definitely happen if the pattern is right. (Yes I'm aware some of those storms were dissapointing but definitely performed bigtime for parts of the region) 

You had a historic SSW event 2 years ago that produced a very strong, anomalous -AO and - NAO/Greenland Block which lead to that March pattern. Nothing even remotely close to that is in the wings right now

[NYCweatherNOW]

29 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

There may be wet flakes at the very end down to the NW suburbs but that's about it.

Ok Billy sounds good. I’ll take some mood flakes

[weatherpruf]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Why is 1993 an analog for March? That was a totally historic March pattern back then and I see no parallels at all to this winter, it was an entirely, completely different climate regime back then to boot. Even assuming we “flip” in early March, you have about the first 15 days of the month, then you have to hope for a very anomalous pattern, thread the needle, to get major snowstorms along the east coast south of New England (i.e.1993), even southern New England gets shaky at that point. Post 3/15, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day 

The climo wasn't that different in the early 90's; it was mostly warm and snowless until 94. Winters were very much like this one, with some colder temps for sure, but not by much.  I remember buying a big down parka from LL Bean and not needing it for years, and when I did it no longer fit ( it's an age thing ). The 93 event was the biggest in years, and quite out of the norm; it also mixed, keeping it from being that big around here. But 90, 91, 92 were mild, though we had two small events in March 92. In 91 the Star Ledger asked what had ever happened to winter?

[MJO812]

Inland areas change to snow on the nam

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Inland areas change to snow on the nam

whoopdee do, 20 minutes of non accumulating snow after 2 inches of rain

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

whoopdee do, 20 minutes of non accumulating snow after 2 inches of rain

It's a colder run

Who cares. Snow is snow.

[rclab]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's a colder run

Who cares. Snow is snow.

An attitude that will lead to a long, happy and healthy life. As always ....

 

 

[NYCweatherNOW]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's a colder run

Who cares. Snow is snow.

I think this could trend to an advisory snows for the suburbs

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I think this could trend to an advisory snows for the suburbs

really ? please explain with some graphics from models

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

really ? please explain with some graphics from models

 

[PB-99]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

really ? please explain with some graphics from models

 

Flizzard.

 

 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Flizzard.

 

 

Check out the cmc

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Check out the cmc

has nothing for immediate NYC metro

[romba]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Check out the cmc

You might have been looking at last night's run

[Dan76]

9 minutes ago, romba said:

You might have been look at last night's run

Probably looked at december

[JustinRP37]

I swear some people think NYC is geographically located where Albany is when they show maps...

[NJsnow89]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Check out the cmc

Uhhh there’s nothing to look at

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Inland areas change to snow on the nam

A trace of non accumulating white rain Friday. And the Saturday night/Sunday “event” did a Houdini

[wxallannj]

How about a 964 mb low over the area Friday!

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

A trace of non accumulating white rain Friday. And the Saturday night/Sunday “event” did a Houdini

That event never had a chance with that energy crashing into the Pac NW.  It could have been an MA event but that’s about it 

[MJO812]

12 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That event never had a chance with that energy crashing into the Pac NW.  It could have been an MA event but that’s about it 

Models  fail