HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, PB-99 said: We want these starting south of us This far out I'm not even bothering especially when there are 3 storms still to sort out before this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 CMC/GFS both with a solid icing event Thursday for basically all the NW suburbs, this seems to be the biggest possible threat of the week right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: This far out I'm not even bothering especially when there are 3 storms still to sort out before this The wave is real. R/S line to be sorted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, PB-99 said: The wave is real. R/S line to be sorted. It may be real and it's somewhat promising every model has it but I'm sure the depiction (temps, intensity, strength etc) will dramatically change depending on what the 3 storms before it do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It may be real and it's somewhat promising every model has it but I'm sure the depiction (temps, intensity, strength etc) will dramatically change depending on what the 3 storms before it do The 1st two SW `s are wet but upon exiting drags the barroclinic zone east in time for the weekend. The 3rd wave is colder, but how much colder ? Not known yet. But wave 3 is your oppo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, PB-99 said: The 1st two SW `s are wet but upon exiting drags the barroclinic zone east in time for the weekend. The 3rd wave is colder, but how much colder ? Not known yet. But wave 3 is your oppo. this will end up being mostly liquid for the immediate NYC metro - the Euro fantasy Sunday MECS - will it show the same solution at 12Z ? Good Luck - most indicies unfavorable - pesky southeast ridge etc. etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: this will end up being mostly liquid for the immediate NYC metro - the Euro fantasy Sunday MECS - will it show the same solution at 12Z ? Good Luck - most indicies unfavorable - pesky southeast ridge etc. etc. Cmc is a snow event for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 PB is right about the opportunity Pna looks favorable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is a snow event for this weekend All 3 models are a snow event right now but the line is very close to the city and we all know how the trends go... but this may be the best chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: All 3 models are a snow event right now but the line is very close to the city and we all know how the trends go... but this may be the best chance Expectations are pretty low at this point as anything that looks somewhat good 5-7 days out will look ugly within a couple days. But, it is definitely something worth noting for now... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 29 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: correct me if I am wrong, but, wouldn't the first two storms need to occur first (affect the atmosphere in their own ways) before the models can handle the weekend storm? at this point wouldn't the models just be guessing what happens this weekend? I'd say it's more than guessing but I agree I wouldn't trust anything it shows until the next two storms are nailed down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 12Z Euro forget about weekend snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z Euro forget about weekend snowstorm Yea this is why I don't care about what models show 6 days out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea this is why I don't care about what models show 6 days out They have been horrible after 5 days. Not sure what is going on with the models this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: They have been horrible after 5 days. Not sure what is going on with the models this winter. No consistency within each model. Blow it all up and start from scratch. Baby steps- lick your finger and hold it up to the wind and take it from there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 The models were never good past 48hours let’s be clear on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: The models were never good past 48hours let’s be clear on that. This is false Euro use to be good 5 days out before the upgrade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Green and White`s Bonanza 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is false Euro use to be good 5 days out before the upgrade. You are right. It used to be far superior than the others before the "upgrade", now its only slightly better than CMC and GooFuS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Green and White`s Bonanza Awful and nothing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Awful and nothing here The map I posted does not include this FANTASY one for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 is there anything worse than a day 10 kuchera map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: is there anything worse than a day 10 kuchera map Yeh, the one that still has 0 for you on it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is false Euro use to be good 5 days out before the upgrade. It's still good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Yeh, the one that still has 0 for you on it. it's a bullshit method 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's a bullshit method Great , so there will be 2 feet in Killington and not 3. It`s a NNE pattern was the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 We are going into a severely positive AO and NAO pattern along with a PNA tank and a SE ridge, I don’t believe any model showing a coastal snowstorm in the midst of such an anomalously horrible pattern. A -EPO/-WPO isn’t going to help you, the CMC and GFS are trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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