HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I think sleet and freezing rain are possible for parts of the area especially NW of the city but I'm still having a hard time seeing a snow event from this, at least not until any models other than the GFS show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: IMO and I could be wrong so someone with more knowledge can correct me but IF the GFS and to some extent the Euro wind up being right then there has to be some kind of change going on with the overall patten that would make things more conducive for winter weather here especially along the coast. It will be either that or pure luck. Steve d mentioning February is toast. Pattern is terrible for any snow storms around here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Steve d mentioning February is toast. Pattern is terrible for any snow storms around here. Good Get the blowers ready 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Steve d mentioning February is toast. Pattern is terrible for any snow storms around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 24 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: It is unimpressive for the immediate metro area, obviously it depends where you live in the subforum. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardofozz Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 It would be nice if we can get the baroclinic zone in a favorable place in the 5 day with some support. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 GFS way north, there goes the fantasy of this becoming interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 GFS cold bias strikes again. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/ The model has tended to overpredict snowfall in the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, setting off false alarms in a region where forecasts are particularly consequential. In Boston, which has seen just six inches of snow this winter, Eric Fisher, chief meteorologist for the CBS affiliate, remarkedthat the model had predicted “multiple” 30-inch snowfalls. Here in Washington, we have documented multiple cases in which its snowfall forecasts several days into the future have been erroneously high. In early December, it was predicting double-digit amounts for Washington four days before a storm tracked to the south and no snow fell. On Monday, the FV3 was predicting double-digit totals for a storm on Saturday in the Washington region, and it now calls for little snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 8 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS way north, there goes the fantasy of this becoming interesting Yep every model now has all rain. These models are atrocious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Reminds me of 2011-12 and 1997-98 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 41 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Reminds me of 2011-12 and 1997-98 Yeah I think we just gotta tough this one out, enjoy it for what it is. Even if we get a few more low snow winters, they aren't likely to be this warm, IMHO. We still had the few 2-4 events in the 80's, with the occasional blockbuster. This is going down as a serious clunker at this rate, but maybe March will pull us out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 No positives for snowlovers in Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter that's for sure. He says the pattern is NOT going to change and the Easter Seaboard will remain more mild/warm then cold. He also is hinting at a hot summer east of the Continental Divide and good chances for severe weather in the center of the country this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Yeah I think we just gotta tough this one out, enjoy it for what it is. Even if we get a few more low snow winters, they aren't likely to be this warm, IMHO. We still had the few 2-4 events in the 80's, with the occasional blockbuster. This is going down as a serious clunker at this rate, but maybe March will pull us out again. Well February just started. But the way this winter has been going it makes me a little upset after tracking so much and striking out every time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Yep every model now has all rain. These models are atrocious Still looks potentially icy for wave 2 especially NW but thats about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Yeah I think we just gotta tough this one out, enjoy it for what it is. Even if we get a few more low snow winters, they aren't likely to be this warm, IMHO. We still had the few 2-4 events in the 80's, with the occasional blockbuster. This is going down as a serious clunker at this rate, but maybe March will pull us out again. I tend to agree. I think this is just one of those winters where it won’t snow. My hopes aren’t high for March either. The gfs is going to continue to give false hope with it’s medium range cold and snow bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Anyone else look at the 12z GGEM? Major snowstorm for northern NJ, NYC and LI wednesday night into thursday. Not that I buy it. Other models are not showing this. Probably just the GGEM overhyping like it often does. Pattern does not support a snowstorm for this area, though I wouldn't 100% rule it out. Every once in awhile we can get a very lucky thread the needle in a bad pattern. I really doubt this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Anyone else look at the 12z GGEM? Major snowstorm for northern NJ, NYC and LI wednesday night into thursday. Not that I buy it. Other models are not showing this. Probably just the GGEM overhyping like it often does. Pattern does not support a snowstorm for this area, though I wouldn't 100% rule it out. Every once in awhile we can get a very lucky thread the needle in a bad pattern. I really doubt this one though. Digital Warning snows for everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 The ukmet also shows a good bit of snow for the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 The ukie has been consistent with several inches of snow from the second wave Thursday morning the GFS and CMC flip-flopped today. Overall looking at all guidance the GFS is the warmest at 850. Even the nam a hour 84 is colder than the GFS most of the guidance gets the zero C line down to Southern New Jersey and South of Philly. Now we just need the precipitation to come in while it's still cold enough the third wave looks warm across the board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 45 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Digital Warning snows for everybody Our only hope is the 1st low is really amplified which helps brings the 2nd low further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Seems like with these types of events it's very difficult to predict where the thermal boundary sets up. I certainly don't trust the forecast 3 or 4 days out. I'd rather be in Poughkeepsie for this, but I think NYC has a shot at a prolonged period of frozen precipitation. As crappy as this Winter has been, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 12z Euro says you have to go to northwest Jersey to get any snow accumulation, which seems like the more likely scenario to me. But since GGEM and UKMET have snow closer to the coast, we still have slight hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro says you have to go to northwest Jersey to get any snow accumulation, which seems like the more likely scenario to me. But since GGEM and UKMET have snow closer to the coast, we still have slight hope. Euro tended trended way east from the lakes cutter. Not enough for the area but any more shifts and it will be enough for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro says you have to go to northwest Jersey to get any snow accumulation, which seems like the more likely scenario to me. But since GGEM and UKMET have snow closer to the coast, we still have slight hope. The higher elevations of far NW NJ are about the realistic cutoff for any snow and it may even end up north of there in the end. This never was a NYC metro area snow event. I don’t care what the CMC and UKMET showed at 12Z 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The higher elevations of far NW NJ are about the realistic cutoff for any snow and it may even end up north of there in the end. This never was a NYC metro area snow event. I don’t care what the CMC and UKMET showed at 12Z But if they were showing a warmer solution with all rain you would be jumping on them like a pitbull on a poodle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 We probably want this system as jacked up as possible so the following wave next Saturday goes under us. At best this is some sleet/ice to rain for the area. Don’t buy into the ggem/Ukmet silliness. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: But if they were showing a warmer solution with all rain you would be jumping on them like a pitbull on a poodle. No, I never take the CMC seriously, it’s almost as horrific as the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: We probably want this system as jacked up as possible so the following wave next Saturday goes under us. At best this is some sleet/ice to rain for the area. Don’t buy into the ggem/Ukmet silliness. Euro shows next weekends threat under us but the Euro just trended much further east with the midweek storm which gives interior NY plenty of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We probably want this system as jacked up as possible so the following wave next Saturday goes under us. At best this is some sleet/ice to rain for the area. Don’t buy into the ggem/Ukmet silliness. What area exactly? 50 miles north of city should see some snow from second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Euro shows next weekends threat under us but the Euro just trended much further east with the midweek storm which gives interior NY plenty of snow. Yeah, but now the system for next weekend is in a perfect spot with a weaker cutter. In this pattern you don’t want it perfect 160 hours out. Last nights euro with a stronger cutter the following system went south of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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