Mid to Long Range Threats

[MJO812]

Euro has a little snow for Sunday for the area 

[mattinpa]

As usual the GFS looks best at the end of the run. It has been meaningless at that stage. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, mattinpa said:

As usual the GFS looks best at the end of the run. It has been meaningless at that stage. 

NCEP sets it up that way so weenies always have hope...."hey folks, the 384 hr GFS has a HECS!"

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Assuming February is another solidly warmer than normal month with below average snow, there has only been one instance in weather history, where Dec, Jan and Feb were all warmer than normal with below average snow, then went on to have a cold and snowy March, 06-07, In all the other cases, March was another warmer than normal month with below average snow

In the case of winter 2006-07, February 2007 was much colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the case of winter 2006-07, February 2007 was much colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

dramatic flip that year....went from torch to freezer in the space of a few days

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

dramatic flip that year....went from torch to freezer in the space of a few days

February 2007 won the wasted cold award. Our one big storm on Valentine’s Day turned into an ice fest. February 2017 was much more productive for snowfall at over 10 degrees warmer. Goes to show the importance of the right storm track.

Islip

February 2007....27.1....-5.7....4.2”

February 2017....37.8....+5.0...14.7”

[NittanyWx]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

dramatic flip that year....went from torch to freezer in the space of a few days

Had blocking that year, which remains the biggest thing lacking in this pattern.  I'm still a bit taken aback about just how badly the solar minimum ideas failed this year.  Wasn't the biggest believer in them, but this is pretty a spectatular faceplant which I certainly wouldn't have expected.

[Brian5671]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

Had blocking that year, which remains the biggest thing lacking in this pattern.  I'm still a bit taken aback about just how badly the solar minimum ideas failed this year.  Wasn't the biggest believer in them, but this is pretty a spectatular faceplant which I certainly wouldn't have expected.

yep back to the drawing board on that one....

[cleetussnow]

Per gfs if that the LP next weekend goes much further west we can track convection maybe.  That’s a threat.

[HVSnowLover]

I'm not even going to let the 18Z GFS reel me in to think next weeks storm could be remotely interesting in our area although it does have some support from the CMC in terms of the WAA precip possibly being wintry

[MJO812]

Inland weenies rejoice 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Thats a good run on 12z GFS for N and W with everything shifting south and colder. Dicey thermals though so things could easily change with this being 5 days out. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Thats a good run on 12z GFS for N and W with everything shifting south and colder. Dicey thermals though so things could easily change with this being 5 days out. 

We really need the epo to press this further south.

[Animal]

Solid dump

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, Animal said:

Solid dump

What a tease.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

On 1/31/2020 at 1:32 PM, Brian5671 said:

NCEP sets it up that way so weenies always have hope...."hey folks, the 384 hr GFS has a HECS!"

I believe that's programmed in to automatically occur every three days. It keeps suckers like us looking even in patterns like this.

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Animal said:

Solid dump

This is the map that counts sleet as snow. The more accurate snowmaps that don't count sleet as snow, look nothing like this.

[gravitylover]

4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Inland weenies rejoice 

Dude you really need to just move. You're NYPD right? Head for the north Bronx or Westchester. 

[Doorman]

On 1/27/2020 at 2:48 PM, Doorman said:

GUIDANCE----

 

 

 day 5 verification...who needs to model hug?????

 

 

  NEXT

 

 

 

[Rtd208]

 

[Rtd208]

I think some of us are getting to caught up in what the models are showing instead of what the pattern is doing.

[gravitylover]

25 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I think some of us are getting to caught up in what the models are showing instead of what the pattern is doing.

Ya think? For many the hobby has morphed into modelology rather than meteorology.

[NYCweatherNOW]

GFS is even colder for wave #2 with snow even for the city. This is getting interesting here! 114hours away

[NYCweatherNOW]

39 minutes ago, Doorman said:

 

 day 5 verification...who needs to model hug?????

 

 

  NEXT

 

 

 

Lol Tommy the models show snow after the 4th. They show snow for Thursday buddy

[HeadInTheClouds]

I'm north of 84 and when both Euro and GFS show a period of possibly significant frozen precip only 5 days out I'm paying attention. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

GFS is even colder for wave #2 with snow even for the city. This is getting interesting here! 114hours away

The models might be adjusting to the MJO  being in the COD and the EPO. We shall see.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Latest discussion from NWS Albany about mid-late week potential if anybody cares. 

 

Wed night into THU...A full latitude positively tilted mid and
upper level trough moves into the Central Plains with a strong mid
and upper level jet along the eastern portion of the trough over the
eastern CONUS.  Initially over running pcpn could break out Wed
night with snow or a mixture of pcpn types.  For now, we continue
snow and rain as the main ptypes but the GEFS/ECMWF are indicating
some sleet and freezing rain may be possible.  Also, some light to
moderate snow accumulations are possible. We will continue to
wait for a non cacophonous tune from the medium range
deterministic and ensemble guidance. Lows in the mid teens to
20s are likely Wed night with mainly mid 20s to mid and and
upper 30s on Thu.

Thu night through Friday...A large amount of spread continues in the
guidance here with the 12Z ECMWF indicating the mid and upper level
longwave trough becoming negatively tilted with the primary sfc wave
remaining west of the northern Appalachian Mtns, which would support
a warmer solution, while the 12Z CMC and some of the NAEFS/GEFS
are similar, the latest WPC shows support with an an occluded
front moving through. The 12Z GFS has a coastal wave moving from
the Delmarva Region to eastern Long Island Friday morning with
a decent snow event for a large portion of the area. WPC does
not favor this scenario, and based on the muddled and chaotic
medium range guidance we are not confident in the 12Z GFS
either. The 12Z GFS has a much flatter mid and upper level
trough too. Needless to say, a moderate to heavy pcpn system
with rain/snow or mixed pcpn is possible. It could also be windy
depending where the primary cyclone tracks. Temps still look to
run above early FEB climatological normals.

 

 

[Rtd208]

 

IMO and I could be wrong so someone with more knowledge can correct me but IF the GFS and to some extent the Euro wind up being right then there has to be some kind of change going on with the overall patten that would make things more conducive for winter weather here especially along the coast. It will be either that or pure luck.

[Wetbulbs88]

6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Latest discussion from NWS Albany about mid-late week potential if anybody cares. 

 

Wed night into THU...A full latitude positively tilted mid and
upper level trough moves into the Central Plains with a strong mid
and upper level jet along the eastern portion of the trough over the
eastern CONUS.  Initially over running pcpn could break out Wed
night with snow or a mixture of pcpn types.  For now, we continue
snow and rain as the main ptypes but the GEFS/ECMWF are indicating
some sleet and freezing rain may be possible.  Also, some light to
moderate snow accumulations are possible. We will continue to
wait for a non cacophonous tune from the medium range
deterministic and ensemble guidance. Lows in the mid teens to
20s are likely Wed night with mainly mid 20s to mid and and
upper 30s on Thu.

Thu night through Friday...A large amount of spread continues in the
guidance here with the 12Z ECMWF indicating the mid and upper level
longwave trough becoming negatively tilted with the primary sfc wave
remaining west of the northern Appalachian Mtns, which would support
a warmer solution, while the 12Z CMC and some of the NAEFS/GEFS
are similar, the latest WPC shows support with an an occluded
front moving through. The 12Z GFS has a coastal wave moving from
the Delmarva Region to eastern Long Island Friday morning with
a decent snow event for a large portion of the area. WPC does
not favor this scenario, and based on the muddled and chaotic
medium range guidance we are not confident in the 12Z GFS
either. The 12Z GFS has a much flatter mid and upper level
trough too. Needless to say, a moderate to heavy pcpn system
with rain/snow or mixed pcpn is possible. It could also be windy
depending where the primary cyclone tracks. Temps still look to
run above early FEB climatological normals.

 

 

They forgot to add that the GFS is Also just an inferior model lol 

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

 

IMO and I could be wrong so someone with more knowledge can correct me but IF the GFS and to some extent the Euro wind up being right then there has to be some kind of change going on with the overall patten that would make things more conducive for winter weather here especially along the coast. It will be either that or pure luck.

It will come down to the pac and epo location. The models are currently backing away from the -pna. So now  temperatures are closer to normal with the -epo. The boundary will be close so good luck getting a idea on what’s going to happen this far out.