Mid to Long Range Threats

[jm1220]

48 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Great track and of course a rainstorm

 

Please end this winter 

It’s the loony range GFS, but that’s not a great track. Notice the low over central VA, and there’s probably tons of SW flow driving warm air in from that panel. No high north of us to keep cold air in. A low SE of here doesn’t mean cold air by itself even in a good winter. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Great find.

IMO, those who assume a static climate put themselves at greater risk of error in extended range and subseasonal forecasting where the risk of error is already high. The paper to which you posted a link referencing a longer residence of the MJO in the Maritime Continent phases is but one example. Bamwx deserves a lot of credit for being open to what the evidence is suggesting, even if it means changing forecasting approaches and questioning the premises deployed in making forecasts.

 

It really is just a perfect storm type outcome for a lousy winter. Warm W PAC, +AO, +NAO, SE ridge, raging PAC Jet, etc. Just like last winter, which did turn around a little in March but remains to be seen this year. Does make you wonder if it’s more than just the usual oscillations driving these repeat type patterns and if it’s not something else we need to study more. 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It really is just a perfect storm type outcome for a lousy winter. Warm W PAC, +AO, +NAO, SE ridge, raging PAC Jet, etc. Just like last winter, which did turn around a little in March but remains to be seen this year. Does make you wonder if it’s more than just the usual oscillations driving these repeat type patterns and if it’s not something else we need to study more. 

Internal variability is occurring within the context of increased greenhouse gas forcing and its consequences. Almost certainly this interaction is leading to changes in patterns, pattern tendencies, and pattern evolution.

[lee59]

Lack of snowfall last winter and this winter so far, is simply over due for our area, especially the coast. We had some string of above average snow seasons, now we are paying the price. That is how we get averages.

[NEG NAO]

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

November 15, 2018: 6.4"

[White Gorilla]

52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Internal variability is occurring within the context of increased greenhouse gas forcing and its consequences. Almost certainly this interaction is leading to changes in patterns, pattern tendencies, and pattern evolution.

Thank you Don for bringing up the greenhouse gas variable into the equation.  It is no doubt an increasingly bigger player. 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Thank you Don for bringing up the greenhouse gas variable into the equation.  It is no doubt an increasingly bigger player. 

The impact of greenhouse gas forcing on internal variability is becoming an increasingly researched area. One example from recent research:

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC41A1002M/abstract

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Internal variability is occurring within the context of increased greenhouse gas forcing and its consequences. Almost certainly this interaction is leading to changes in patterns, pattern tendencies, and pattern evolution.

Don, to what extent did the Australian fires contribute to the WPAC SST anomalous warmth that feeds into higher MJO 4-6 phase amplitude and frequency? Do you feel that the WPAC warmth will be a more permanent feature in winters moving forward, thus increasing MJO phase 4-6 impact on our weather? 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Don, to what extent did the Australian fires contribute to the WPAC SST anomalous warmth that feeds into higher MJO 4-6 phase amplitude and frequency? Do you feel that the WPAC warmth will be a more permanent feature in winters moving forward, thus increasing MJO phase 4-6 impact on our weather? 

I'm not sure what impact the fires had, but will be looking to read papers that may be published on the topic. 

On the latter point, there is literature that suggests that the MJO is starting to spend increasing time in Phases 4-6 in response to changing oceanic heat content and SSTAs. I suspect that we will see such outcomes grow more frequent as the underlying factors driving that situation are persisting, namely continuing greenhouse gas emission increases.

[greenmtnwx]

This may be too simplistic, but maybe none of this matters, it's us hobbyists and scientists that want to try to put a reason to it. Maybe it's pretty much completely random and weather will do what it does based on mostly complete random variables coming together. All of a sudden now greenhouse gas forcing means it's VA in NY now? There will never be another -NAO? I'm beginning to think we really don't have a clue.

[White Gorilla]

30 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

This may be too simplistic, but maybe none of this matters, it's us hobbyists and scientists that want to try to put a reason to it. Maybe it's pretty much completely random and weather will do what it does based on mostly complete random variables coming together. All of a sudden now greenhouse gas forcing means it's VA in NY now? There will never be another -NAO? I'm beginning to think we really don't have a clue.

I don't think anyone here said or implied suddenly VA in NY or never a negative NAO. I am sure there will be winters in the future that are cold and snowy.  We do have a clue that greenhouse gases are an important part of the climate equation. 

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

This may be too simplistic, but maybe none of this matters, it's us hobbyists and scientists that want to try to put a reason to it. Maybe it's pretty much completely random and weather will do what it does based on mostly complete random variables coming together. All of a sudden now greenhouse gas forcing means it's VA in NY now? There will never be another -NAO? I'm beginning to think we really don't have a clue.

There's a big difference between pointing out that the impacts of greenhouse gas forcing are influencing the hemispheric circulation (as noted in a growing body of literature), along with other aspects of internal variability, and making the claim that the ultimate outcome will be the disappearance of the NAO- (no literature that I am aware of supports such a claim, though there is some literature suggesting a somewhat greater frequency of the NAO+ state due, in part, to ocean-cryosphere-atmosphere changes).

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

November 15, 2018: 6.4"

I didn't create this list - Joe Rao did - I will mention it too him next time we talk.

[weatherpruf]

23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I didn't create this list - Joe Rao did - I will mention it too him next time we talk.

Would love to see a list of the 70's and 80's.....Unc?

[MJO812]

The 7th storm is also trending the wrong way for the coast.  Far interior areas  near the lakes have a shot as of right now. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The 7th storm is also trending the wrong way for the coast.  Far interior areas  near the lakes have a shot as of right now. 

It’s trending worse because NAO and AO blocking are non existent, neither is +PNA

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Great find.

IMO, those who assume a static climate put themselves at greater risk of error in extended range and subseasonal forecasting where the risk of error is already high. The paper to which you posted a link referencing a longer residence of the MJO in the Maritime Continent phases is but one example. Bamwx deserves a lot of credit for being open to what the evidence is suggesting, even if it means changing forecasting approaches and questioning the premises deployed in making forecasts.

 

The publication of this paper proved to be very timely.

 

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The publication of this paper proved to be very timely.

 

Timely find indeed.  I would like to know as well the factors contributing to the expansion of the Pacific warm pool in that specific area. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Based off the the incredible repeating pattern and the change in what the MJO means in March I think this winter isn’t over. After a warm February most will have stuck a fork in it only to have another March snow blitz. 

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Based off the the incredible repeating pattern and the change in what the MJO means in March I think this winter isn’t over. After a warm February most will have stuck a fork in it only to have another March snow blitz. 

I honestly hope not. I'm so over this winter I don't need another cold March to ruin early Spring. 

I'll be happy with a 2012 March. 

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Based off the the incredible repeating pattern and the change in what the MJO means in March I think this winter isn’t over. After a warm February most will have stuck a fork in it only to have another March snow blitz. 

March will most likely be way different 

[A Moonlit Sky]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I honestly hope not. I'm so over this winter I don't need another cold March to ruin early Spring. 

I'll be happy with a 2012 March. 

Nah, I'm good. I'm ok with a cold March and chilly April. If I'm getting screwed out of cold weather in winter, I want it somewhere. I also don't need another March 2012 whiplash that kills my plants again.

[Wetbulbs88]

5 hours ago, Snow88 said:

The 7th storm is also trending the wrong way for the coast.  Far interior areas  near the lakes have a shot as of right now. 

You’re just torturing yourself by continuing to track solutions that will inevitably change very drastically. 

 

14 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

This may be too simplistic, but maybe none of this matters, it's us hobbyists and scientists that want to try to put a reason to it. Maybe it's pretty much completely random and weather will do what it does based on mostly complete random variables coming together. All of a sudden now greenhouse gas forcing means it's VA in NY now? There will never be another -NAO? I'm beginning to think we really don't have a clue.

It’s definitely overly simplistic. If this were the case we wouldn’t be able to predict anything. 

 

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's a big difference between pointing out that the impacts of greenhouse gas forcing are influencing the hemispheric circulation (as noted in a growing body of literature), along with other aspects of internal variability, and making the claim that the ultimate outcome will be the disappearance of the NAO- (no literature that I am aware of supports such a claim, though there is some literature suggesting a somewhat greater frequency of the NAO+ state due, in part, to ocean-cryosphere-atmosphere changes).

This. The old patterns we’ve used To track storms are simply an evolution of even older patterns we used to track storms. We’ll continue to update our indicators and metrics as the science/atmosphere evolved. That’s the beauty of forecasting: it’ll never be boring. 
 

More than anything, there are a lot of similarities between forecasting and investing in how our emotions affect our outlook. Two dud winters in a row is FAR from anomalous, and any mention that NY is the new VA simply laughable. Yes, there is an evolution to our climate, this is absolutely inevitable with or without greenhouse gas; and yes, greenhouse gas is likely adding another variable to that evolution. But before these two years we were talking about NY being the new Buffalo. It’s the same shortsightedness that makes for overreactive long term predictions. 
 

We don’t know how the climate will evolve, and that’s almost as much as we can say, except that indications point toward more extremes, in almost every sense. This might lead to more absolute winters—more consistent cold and snow, or warmth and dry. Who knows. 

[NYCweatherNOW]

Gfs is all rain

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Gfs is all rain

It's truly a brutal pattern

What's  mind boggling is that the pattern is really active and we could have benefited from this.

[bluewave]

The Pacific Jet has been relentless.

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Based off the the incredible repeating pattern and the change in what the MJO means in March I think this winter isn’t over. After a warm February most will have stuck a fork in it only to have another March snow blitz. 

Assuming February is another solidly warmer than normal month with below average snow, there has only been one instance in weather history, where Dec, Jan and Feb were all warmer than normal with below average snow, then went on to have a cold and snowy March, 06-07, In all the other cases, March was another warmer than normal month with below average snow

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

More than anything, there are a lot of similarities between forecasting and investing in how our emotions affect our outlook. Two dud winters in a row is FAR from anomalous, and any mention that NY is the new VA simply laughable. Yes, there is an evolution to our climate, this is absolutely inevitable with or without greenhouse gas; and yes, greenhouse gas is likely adding another variable to that evolution. But before these two years we were talking about NY being the new Buffalo. It’s the same shortsightedness that makes for overreactive long term predictions. 
 

We don’t know how the climate will evolve, and that’s almost as much as we can say, except that indications point toward more extremes, in almost every sense. This might lead to more absolute winters—more consistent cold and snow, or warmth and dry. Who knows. 

Hyperbole much? Outside of JB nobody was seriously saying NYC was becoming the new Buffalo. We had a few big years of snow, and the majority of the big winters had sustained positive temperature departures.  Winter is our fastest warming season even with the increase in snowfall we saw for much of the past two decades, something I have studied first hand for my tick work. And climate models have been mostly accurate for our region in regards to increasing humidity, precipitation, and temperature. With that models also point out an increase in snow until the warming overwhelms. 

[jm1220]

I’m going back to sleep. Wake me up when there’s some kind of blocking north of us, the Pacific Jet stops rampaging, and the SE ridge doesn’t run rampant. Zzzzz.....