Mid to Long Range Threats

[romba]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Rivera game was a great game

I was so happy when he  blew it.

I hope they over-salt your street 4 times in anticipation of this weekends blockbuster

[Barman49]

I was fortunate to be at all of those games.  Good times.
my seats were a few rows from the field out in left, where the Wall started to get higher.  I’ll never forget seeing those balls flying into the seats especially the Boone shot.

2001 was the hardest one. With what happened with the attack and then those comebacks in the home games you didn't think there was a chance they wouldn't win. I remember when Soriano hit the HR off Schilling I thought it was over.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

[PB-99]

42 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I was at the Tino GS vs Langston game too.

I remember this huge guy about 5 rows in front of me that made me look like a midget, and I'm 6 2, 210, pulled his chair out of the ground and raised it over his head while he was cheering after the homer.

I may have had a few that night, and I know those chairs were bolted in the ground, so it was either loose, or he was Superman, but still one of the more impressive feats of strength I've ever seen at a baseball game.And yes that may have been the loudest game I've ever attended. It felt like the upper deck might fall and crush us.

 

That 2 -2 pitch tho.... 

[PB-99]

We shift the vortex from Alaska to Greenland 

 

[PB-99]

 

Hello Europe.

 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

We shift the vortex from Alaska to Greenland 

 

384 

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The Rivera game was a great game

I was so happy when he  blew it.

Howdy'

[tek1972]

I hate snow and even I know it's wayyy too early too say it's over

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[PB-99]

4 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Howdy'

 

Jorge grounded out to end the game.

 

Was at that one too. 

[PB-99]

16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

384 

That`s aimed at Europe, not here. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, PB-99 said:

 

That 2 -2 pitch tho.... 

Yep, with an automated strike zone he probably goes down looking, but even if he did they weren't losing that series. No one was beating them in 98.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

384 

Their verification scores at 384 must be around 90%, lol

[Allsnow]

Weeklies basically saying it’s over! We are above normal until mid March. I would welcome a early spring. Yes, we can still snow but any deep winter pattern is definitely trashed. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies basically saying it’s over! We are above normal until mid March. I would welcome a early spring. Yes, we can still snow but any deep winter pattern is definitely trashed. 

wow-the weeklies are usually like JB, holding out to the bitter end.  If they say it's over it's over.

[Allsnow]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

wow-the weeklies are usually like JB, holding out to the bitter end.  If they say it's over it's over.

They really have not bought into any type of cold/snowy pattern. They did a good job in sniffing out the dateline ridge in January and rna pattern for February. 

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies basically saying it’s over! We are above normal until mid March. I would welcome a early spring. Yes, we can still snow but any deep winter pattern is definitely trashed. 

I’d say get it over with and be done with “winter” if we won’t go into any sustained cold pattern with snow. I’m fine with wall to wall warm then. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I’d say get it over with and be done with “winter” if we won’t go into any sustained cold pattern with snow. I’m fine with wall to wall warm then. 

Yeah. With the Mjo going into p4-5-6 I think the response could be pretty warm in mid February. 

[snowman19]

58 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies basically saying it’s over! We are above normal until mid March. I would welcome a early spring. Yes, we can still snow but any deep winter pattern is definitely trashed. 

Just looked after I saw your post and if they are correct, wow, say goodnight and goodbye winter 19-20

[snowman19]

42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah. With the Mjo going into p4-5-6 I think the response could be pretty warm in mid February. 

Agree with you here, that look by mid-February and beyond isn’t just above normal, it looks way above normal. This winter has been Deja Vu 2011-2012, it’s uncanny

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies basically saying it’s over! We are above normal until mid March. I would welcome a early spring. Yes, we can still snow but any deep winter pattern is definitely trashed. 

Didnt the weeklies have a good pattern going into February?

I dont want to see long range forecasts next winter. They rarely pan out.

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Didnt the weeklies have a good pattern going into February?

I dont want to see long range forecasts next winter. They rarely pan out.

18z GFS just shows how bad winter has been for most of us for the Feb 7th storm

[JustinRP37]

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Didnt the weeklies have a good pattern going into February?

I dont want to see long range forecasts next winter. They rarely pan out.

They were actually pretty spot on this year though. Not one was sustained on showing cold and snowy, but we all had our reasons. I'm doing a lot of head scratching and I think I allowed myself to think that maybe they weren't seeing something right.

[bluewave]

This was a great tweet. I have been  saying this for a while about old analogs not matching the new climate. The expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been favoring these warmer MJO phases for us. 

 

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree with you here, that look by mid-February and beyond isn’t just above normal, it looks way above normal. This winter has been Deja Vu 2011-2012, it’s uncanny

2011-2012 seems to be the trajectory given the CONUS wide torch and rather dry weather too. 

Pretty much every indicator out there screams warm/dry too. We'll def know by mid Feb. That's the last time we've had a huge dud so we're due. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, bluewave said:

This was a great tweet. I have been  saying this for a while about old analogs not matching the new climate. The expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been favoring these warmer MJO phases for us. 

If this expansion is correct which it appears to be then could winter as we know it be over? 

If every year will favor MJO 4-6 then what would this mean, is it a forever change or temporary?

[JustinRP37]

Just now, bluewave said:

This was a great tweet. I have been  saying this for a while about old analogs not matching the new climate. The expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been favoring these warmer MJO phases for us. 

 

I honestly think people use analogs way too much. Back in October NOAA released this: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-warmer-than-average-for-many-wetter-in-north

They honestly nailed this winter back in the beginning of October for us, but notice they bombed for Alaska. But that didn't stop JB and Twitter WX from saying EPIC COLD AND SNOW!!

Perhaps we should all do what NOAA does: "NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are favored to change. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are expected."

[MJO812]

Great track and of course a rainstorm

 

Please end this winter 

[Allsnow]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was a great tweet. I have been  saying this for a while about old analogs not matching the new climate. The expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been favoring these warmer MJO phases for us. 

 

I agree 100%. Enso states, analogs, snow cover, and NPAC warm pools are becoming less informative on the coming winter. It’s really all about the Pv and mjo. Stuff that is very hard to predict from months in advance.

[qg_omega]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was a great tweet. I have been  saying this for a while about old analogs not matching the new climate. The expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been favoring these warmer MJO phases for us. 

 

They really changed their tune after their horrible December forecast.  Good for them.

[donsutherland1]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was a great tweet. I have been  saying this for a while about old analogs not matching the new climate. The expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been favoring these warmer MJO phases for us. 

 

Great find.

IMO, those who assume a static climate put themselves at greater risk of error in extended range and subseasonal forecasting where the risk of error is already high. The paper to which you posted a link referencing a longer residence of the MJO in the Maritime Continent phases is but one example. Bamwx deserves a lot of credit for being open to what the evidence is suggesting, even if it means changing forecasting approaches and questioning the premises deployed in making forecasts.