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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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16 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Total can kick with the cold now as it starts after the 13th lol. If the -epo ridge sets up to far west it’s just going to dump the cold into the west. As you posted, great pattern for Chicago. We need to see where the -epo sets up or even materialize. That will write the story for February. I’m beginning to think it’s just not our year unfortunately. I will just hope for a early spring if that’s the case 

 

Yeh man, it`s over. I had FEB as my month and waited 2 months for it. It`s not going to work out. 

 

1581595200-em34q8jaOW8.png

 

 

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In the Long Range, 

HECS in my lifetime, 

77, 78, 83, 96, 03, 06, 09, 10,16.

Yankees W/S wins and appearances 

77, 78, ( lost in 82 ) 96, 98, 99, 2000, (  lost in 03  ) 09. 

Vegas over / under Yankees is 101.5.

Simple, win the W/S this year and maybe we get a HECS next year, this year is done and has spit the bit.  

15 days until Pitchers and Catchers so enjoy the FEB torch.

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

In the Long Range, 

HECS in my lifetime, 

77, 78, 83, 96, 03, 06, 09, 10,16.

Yankees W/S wins and appearances 

77, 78, ( lost in 82 ) 96, 97, 98, 2000, (  lost in 03  ) 09. 

Vegas over / under Yankees is 101.5.

Simple, win the W/S this year and maybe we get a HECS next year, this year is done and has spit the bit.  

15 days until Pitchers and Catchers so enjoy the FEB torch.

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

 

 

 

Amongst many factors, the warm water on the NW shore of Australia killed this year.    Makes the MJO want to stay in the warm phases.    Couple that with the super positive AO, +EPO and -NAO and we're toast.

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19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Amongst many factors, the warm water on the NW shore of Australia killed this year.    Makes the MJO want to stay in the warm phases.    Couple that with the super positive AO, +EPO and -NAO and we're toast.

 

I still like the 7th/ 8th time frame here.

I think we are probably coming out of a weak 3 or the null p

 

After that It`s another hostile period.  I see that some like the 2nd half of Feb , but every time the MJO wants to take a tour in those warm phases , it takes it`s time.

 

And we are running out of exactly that. 

 

1581076800-x8odHSTFOso.png

 

1581076800-1hWssN2b7mU.png

 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I agree but yet there are some people who will continue to post runs past 300 hours.  Like I said , models shouldnt go past 150 hours. 

Dude you post those models! You are referring to yourself!

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20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Amongst many factors, the warm water on the NW shore of Australia killed this year.    Makes the MJO want to stay in the warm phases.    Couple that with the super positive AO, +EPO and -NAO and we're toast.

The PV gaining strength and being poorly positioned was the death sentence at the end of December. The Vortex made a late home in Ak for a big chunk of this winter 

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52 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

In the Long Range, 

HECS in my lifetime, 

77, 78, 83, 96, 03, 06, 09, 10,16.

Yankees W/S wins and appearances 

77, 78, ( lost in 82 ) 96, 97, 98, 2000, (  lost in 03  ) 09. 

Vegas over / under Yankees is 101.5.

Simple, win the W/S this year and maybe we get a HECS next year, this year is done and has spit the bit.  

15 days until Pitchers and Catchers so enjoy the FEB torch.

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

 

 

 

correction, yanks were not in the WS in 97, but won it in '99 and lost in '01

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Social media I feel has been awful for meteorology as a whole. You get these very influential Twitter wx guys that hammer, hammer, and hammer what people want to see and hear. Let's face it even the people that absolutely HATE snow will click on a headline that says "Epic cold and snow this winter" versus a headline that says "Warmer and snowless winter coming up". These Twitter stars know this and have monetized it quite well. Some people are catching on, but there is always that one model run 295 hours out that shows an amazing pattern. I am happy, at least for the time being, that we have dried out and are stringing together sunny days. I feel like that is something that hasn't happened for a long time. But alas the thing many people forget is that years like this do hurt families that rely on the snow, from landscapers who plow, to people the work and support the skiing industry, to road crews that bank on some extra OT money. 

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9 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Social media I feel has been awful for meteorology as a whole. You get these very influential Twitter wx guys that hammer, hammer, and hammer what people want to see and hear. Let's face it even the people that absolutely HATE snow will click on a headline that says "Epic cold and snow this winter" versus a headline that says "Warmer and snowless winter coming up". These Twitter stars know this and have monetized it quite well. Some people are catching on, but there is always that one model run 295 hours out that shows an amazing pattern. I am happy, at least for the time being, that we have dried out and are stringing together sunny days. I feel like that is something that hasn't happened for a long time. But alas the thing many people forget is that years like this do hurt families that rely on the snow, from landscapers who plow, to people the work and support the skiing industry, to road crews that bank on some extra OT money. 

The general public (around me at least) had the idea that this was going to be a brutal winter.   I heard a few people say it-based on what?   Likely click bait twitter and internet posts on facebook and other social media.  There was little to support for a "severe" or "brutal" winter.....

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I agree but yet there are some people who will continue to post runs past 300 hours.  Like I said , models shouldnt go past 150 hours. 

I agree that surface reflections are generally terrible outside of 150 but I think the models are generally better from a temperature and pattern perspective and still have some value until at least 200 hours.

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22 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

You`re right 

 

I forgot about Arizona 

Mariano on the mound and a fourth straight series, and fifth in six years were right there for the taking after incredible comebacks in games 4 & 5. Happening as it did right after 9/11 it just seemed like it was meant to be. Luis Gonzalez 120 foot single still haunts me to this day

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13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The general public (around me at least) had the idea that this was going to be a brutal winter.   I heard a few people say it-based on what?   Likely click bait twitter and internet posts on facebook and other social media.  There was little to support for a "severe" or "brutal" winter.....

Same around the office here.

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17 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Mariano on the mound and a fourth straight series, and fifth in six years were right there for the taking after incredible comebacks in games 4 & 5. Happening as it did right after 9/11 it just seemed like it was meant to be. Luis Gonzalez 120 foot single still haunts me to this day

 

39 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

You`re right 

 

I forgot about Arizona 

I'd like to forget about Arizona.  But honestly, the 3 games at the stadium in that world series were incredible and unforgettable.  I was fortunate to be at all 3.

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9 minutes ago, Hitman said:

 

I'd like to forget about Arizona.  But honestly, the 3 games at the stadium in that world series were incredible and unforgettable.  I was fortunate to be at all 3.

I was at game 4.

The Tino HR was incredible  , obv Jeter was over the top.

 

But loudest ever at Yankee Stadium that I have been at ,

Boone / Red Sox ,  Tino GS vs Langston .

Justice vs Seattle too. 

 

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13 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

I was at game 4.

The Tino HR was incredible  , obv Jeter was over the top.

 

But loudest ever at Yankee Stadium that I have been at ,

Boone / Red Sox ,  Tino GS vs Langston .

Justice vs Seattle too. 

 

I was at the Tino GS vs Langston game too.

I remember this huge guy about 5 rows in front of me that made me look like a midget, and I'm 6 2, 210, pulled his chair out of the ground and raised it over his head while he was cheering after the homer.

I may have had a few that night, and I know those chairs were bolted in the ground, so it was either loose, or he was Superman, but still one of the more impressive feats of strength I've ever seen at a baseball game.And yes that may have been the loudest game I've ever attended. It felt like the upper deck might fall and crush us.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The PV gaining strength and being poorly positioned was the death sentence at the end of December. The Vortex made a late home in Ak for a big chunk of this winter 

The forecasts that had the SPV weakening in February have all backed down and are again showing a strong vortex and cold stratosphere again. It’s nearing the time to pull the plug

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32 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

I was at game 4.

The Tino HR was incredible  , obv Jeter was over the top.

 

But loudest ever at Yankee Stadium that I have been at ,

Boone / Red Sox ,  Tino GS vs Langston .

Justice vs Seattle too. 

 

I was fortunate to be at all of those games.  Good times.

my seats were a few rows from the field out in left, where the Wall started to get higher.  I’ll never forget seeing those balls flying into the seats especially the Boone shot.

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7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The forecasts that had the SPV weakening in February have all backed down and are again showing a strong vortex and cold stratosphere again. It’s nearing the time to pull the plug

Judah Cohen and Amy Butler on twitter have been talking about this much of the winter and how the lack of disruption was going to lead to mild conditions over the CONUS.     This coupled with other unfavorable events pretty much sealed our fate.     We'll have to hope for a lucky SECS or something but by and large it's over.

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13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The forecasts that had the SPV weakening in February have all backed down and are again showing a strong vortex and cold stratosphere again. It’s nearing the time to pull the plug

Yeah, any type of distribution now would only effect late March into April. Once the Pv coupled with the atmosphere is was over. We haven’t had any type of hits in the strat to disrupt it. 
 

In 13/14 we had a strong Pv but it was in a better position with lots of strat activity. Going forward the most important factors for winter IMO are the PV and MJO. 

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