Mid to Long Range Threats

[tombo82685]

1 minute ago, Mersky said:

Meh, MJO looks to be in the COD for the foreseeable future. Not sure how much it’s going to be a driver of the pattern going forward. One model has it coming out in phase 3 which is cold in February and March. I doubt very much we get any sustained bitter cold any this winter but I wouldn’t count out a snowstorm or two before winter ends. 

I will never post on this site again if that rmm verifies, this should come out into 3-4-5-6. Why would convection just rot when it has all the warm water around Australia 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I will never post on this site again if that rmm verifies, this should come out into 3-4-5-6. Why would convection just rot when it has all the warm water around Australia 

Yep. And to pick the CFS rmm plot nonetheless. The same plot that had this going into high amplitude p8 a few days ago. You and I both know this is going 3-4-5-6. The weenies will always rip and read those rmm plots. The warm waters by Australia (example wild fires and heat) keep the convection there. 
 

Roundy plots are clearly into 3-4-5-6. And with the warm waters it will gain strength in 5-6. 

euro and gfs agree with this 

[Snowshack]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And oddly enough one state over in Denver they have 0.0 inches of snow so far for the month of January. I'm not sure how the ski areas in Colorado are faring for the month.

Im actually sitting in airport at Denver, we skied Breckenridge last five days.  Once you get to around 9k elevation about 60 miles west of Denver there is plenty of snow.  Breckenridge is around 200” for the season so far, streets and sidewalks in town all snow covered.   Great ski town.  Denver and the nearby plains are having a shutout January.  

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, Mersky said:

The euro does bring it out like you say but weak. I just don’t think the MJO is going to be a big factor later in winter. I am not saying it’s going be cold the rest of the winter but a weak MJO signal in warm phases can be overcome, especially late winter 

The mjo won’t be weak.  Look for it to gain amplitude in those phases with all that warm water stacked up.

[tombo82685]

9 minutes ago, Mersky said:

The euro does bring it out like you say but weak. I just don’t think the MJO is going to be a big factor later in winter. I am not saying it’s going be cold the rest of the winter but a weak MJO signal in warm phases can be overcome, especially late winter 

 

Like @Allsnow mentioned I have sneaky feeling this will gain amplitude in 4-5-6

[NYCweatherNOW]

Watch the storm trend way northwest as of tonight give us 4-8

[tombo82685]

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Watch the storm trend way northwest as of tonight give us 4-8

going to be tough to do when your dew pts are in the mid 30s. 

[MJO812]

Gfs unleashes the freezer in weenie range

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs unleashes the freezer in weenie range

Yes, after hour 330 it shows some snow and then deep freeze. What could possibly go wrong?

[Jacob brooklyn]

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs unleashes the freezer in weenie range

Very funny

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Mersky said:

Lol you don’t know what the MJO is going to do. Neither does he. 

Obviously convection can be hard to forecast well in advance. But @tombo82685 and I have been pretty accurate with it this winter. 
 

And let’s be honest, your track record of going against my thoughts haven’t worked out well for you. 

[Rjay]

Just now, Allsnow said:

No, just the ones about the airmass being horrible for snow threat that you argued about with me and Isotherms. Or the one when I didn’t expect significant snowfall for nyc the next three weeks. 
 

Or this upcoming storm, when I was explaining that it was worrisome when the coldest/snowiest  model (gfs) shows surface temps between 34-36. Yet, you threw a tantrum over it lol. 
 

should I keep going? 

No point.  He's suspended for 2 weeks.  

[Allsnow]

I still like the 5-9th period for a threat of snow. Unfortunately, the strat hit has weakened and we are building lower hgts back into the ak. So it’s more of a modified airmass that’s coldest to our west. The transient blocking disappeared as well. It’s still not a horrible look and the airmass is a bit better then what we have currently. 

[Allsnow]

for after the 9th, the ens are building a -epo with a -pna/southeast ridge. On today’s eps the -epo is to far west so we would be on the other side of the gradient. This doesn’t mean no snow! We could definitely eek out a swfe/overrunning event if one of the s/w stays progressive. It’s just not a good pattern for sustained cold in the east. Now if the ensembles are off (which they could very well be) on the epo ridge position then we could be in a better spot. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Snowshack said:

Im actually sitting in airport at Denver, we skied Breckenridge last five days.  Once you get to around 9k elevation about 60 miles west of Denver there is plenty of snow.  Breckenridge is around 200” for the season so far, streets and sidewalks in town all snow covered.   Great ski town.  Denver and the nearby plains are having a shutout January.  

I was there last week!  (Came back Sunday)   That might be all the snow I see this year.   (the continental divide tends to be the line b/w big snow and not much snow.) Those valleys along I70 never see any sun so the snow sticks around

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

for after the 9th, the ens are building a -epo with a -pna/southeast ridge. On today’s eps the -epo is to far west so we would be on the other side of the gradient. This doesn’t mean no snow! We could definitely eek out a swfe/overrunning event if one of the s/w stays progressive. It’s just not a good pattern for sustained cold in the east. Now if the ensembles are off (which they could very well be) on the epo ridge position then we could be in a better spot. 

Now the 18z GEFS has a nice -epo ridge position as it’s more into eastern Alaska. This helps knock down the southeast ridge 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Realistically, if Saturday keeps trending in our favor is there any cold air for it to tap into? Enough to give us snow on the island? 

If there can be mod-heavy precip somehow yes, I'd think it would be snow. If it's light showery stuff it would be a mix or rain because the cold air doesn't get pulled down. More realistically it's impossible to predict much impact right now since the models show a ragged sloppy trough with several waves coming through which seem to negatively interact. The result is a strung out mess that slides out to sea. The N/S wave diving down is a possibility we can't eliminate yet which could force the trough to amplify enough and start a stronger system near the coast. If the waves can't interact properly it won't ever get organized in time. I give it until tomorrow evening before throwing the towel in completely but there's really been only a few stray runs of some models over the last 3-4 days which showed much. We've seen quick last 2-3 day changes before though. 

[Wetbulbs88]

So the NAM is interesting...

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

So the NAM is interesting...

meh...nothing heavy so it's rain or white rain

[Wetbulbs88]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

meh...nothing heavy so it's rain or white rain

Lol yeah it was just super quiet in here. 

That being said, I’m not totally out yet. I’ve seen this movie too many times not to know that with this many pieces of energy in play, the models will have a tough time. 

That being said again, I’m markedly bearish on this one lol. 

Edit: I also still think the surface isn’t being depicted as anything close to making sense. The precip shield evolution between frames 63 and 66 doesn’t seem possible. 

[MJO812]

This little low ruined the storm from phasing.  It created an exit route for the low.

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

This little low ruined the storm from phasing.  It created an exit route for the low.

Any possibility it’s chasing convection lol? 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Any possibility it’s chasing convection lol? 

There isnt any convection to chase.

The old runs where the models blew up the storm to 970s are gone. This is a weak unphased low. 

The ridge out west trended flatter

This threat  is done

[Juliancolton]

Just now, Snow88 said:

This little low ruined the storm from phasing.  It created an exit route for the low.

I strongly feel that the problems are more fundamental than that. The ridge out west is poorly oriented, very broad, and progged to be further assaulted by the strong vort lobe falling south from Canada. There's just nothing to reliably drive the northern s/w down through the base of the trough in the fashion of big phasing systems. The disturbance leaving the Southeast coast tonight is definitely not helping, though given the lack of any meaningful baroclinicity along the coast in the first place, that may not matter much in the end, either.

[IrishRob17]

On 1/28/2020 at 10:33 PM, Juliancolton said:

It's dead, Jim.

 

On 1/28/2020 at 11:02 PM, Snow88 said:

You must be new

 

7 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

I strongly feel that the problems are more fundamental than that. The ridge out west is poorly oriented, very broad, and progged to be further assaulted by the strong vort lobe falling south from Canada. There's just nothing to reliably drive the northern s/w down through the base of the trough in the fashion of big phasing systems. The disturbance leaving the Southeast coast tonight is definitely not helping, though given the lack of any meaningful baroclinicity along the coast in the first place, that may not matter much in the end, either.

For a new guy that’s a pretty damn good explanation 

[MJO812]

Gefs has a coastal signal for the 7th. 

Here we go again 

[wishcast_hater]

The carrot and the donkey. 

[snowman19]

Every model, Euro UKMET GFS ICON CMC NAM is now dry for the weekend, they’ve even lost what little QPF they were showing yesterday 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs has a coastal signal for the 7th. 

Here we go again 

88, I'm out,,,,,,done brother . I won't believe anything the models show until I see it happen. Bring on pitchers and catchers and we can try this again next year.

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs has a coastal signal for the 7th. 

Here we go again 

The bait and switch routine is old now.