tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 This still looks like a long shot for the coast. Hudson Valley on north still in the game IMO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, Barman49 said: Looks like quite a few more to the west. Looking on my phone can't see how strong the LP are though. Edit: zoomed in better not many under 990 that are at BM or west. Not sure this helps us much. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Also numerous leaning well East. Time to break out the snow storm magnet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Also numerous leaning well East. Time to break out the snow storm magnet.Yes but a little more left leaning compared to 12z. Although like I said looks like more NS interaction but the strength of the LP seemed to actually be less than the west ones at 12z.Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Overreacting a bit much milder winters happen. Cold winters happen. It’s how we get averages last twenty years have generally been cold and snowy winters. just my take. Not so much cold but definitely snowy, the coast had a great run in terms of intense snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 37 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: This still looks like a long shot for the coast. Hudson Valley on north still in the game IMO Yea because of the temps issue I get where you are coming from although I think if it's west enough to snow in the Hudson Valley it will be strong enough to bring the snow line down to I95. We are far away from that solution right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: This still looks like a long shot for the coast. Hudson Valley on north still in the game IMO How so ? If it comes further west everyone will get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 It's dead, Jim. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It's dead, Jim. Don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 18 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It's dead, Jim. really? its tuesday night, this threat is for sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 17 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It's dead, Jim. 9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Don't think so. I honestly don't think so either. I'm not saying we're getting a snow storm but this is far from over, re: our sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 H5 is a bit better on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Big jog NW on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: really? its tuesday night, this threat is for sunday The "threat is x days away" self-assurance is fallacious. The responsible trough is amplifying over the west as we speak. You don't have until the would-be start time to see wholesale synoptic changes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 28 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It's dead, Jim. You must be new 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The "threat is x days away" self-assurance is fallacious. The responsible trough is amplifying over the west as we speak. You don't have until the would-be start time to see wholesale synoptic changes. The northern stream energy didnt even come into the mainland. We have seen changes within model runs a day out this winter and especially with Miller A storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 this "event" looks more likely now IMO BUT looks like a mix of precip types at best at the coast - more frozen the farther inland you go where there is precip available 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Nice improvement on the GFS. Surprised it moved NW this early. I'm looking forward to the NAM starting tomorrow night and obviously what the Euro keeps showing. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Seems like we need several things to go right for decent accumulating snow near NYC because of the marginal temps...hence it would be wise to keep evs weenie hopes in check. Basically, it's a no go unless there is a very strong low bombing out south of the area, taking a benchmark track. A beautifuly placed 990 mb low ain't going to cut it...nor will a 970 mb low tucked into the coast. I'm holding out some hope for perfection, but the odds are not on our side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I think by tomorrow night if the Euro & NAM are in agreement that's what the outcome will be. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Euro is terrible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 4 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Big jog NW on the GFS Rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, NJsnow89 said: Euro is terrible Once this system is fully sampled models will change just my opinion...i think by thur 12z and oz suite we will have much more clarity...im not saying mega snow just saying more clarity... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Rain Thanks captain obvious 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Today is the last day to see improvements Let's hope every model shows a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 6 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Big jog NW on the GFS And now back East 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 The little low that the models have ahead of the coastal is causing a weakness in the trough for the main low which allows the storm to escape without coming up the coast. Combine that with some left over energy in the west and also a progressive trough and you will have yourself a non event. I think it is over but you never know with all these vorts flying down . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 If anyone would still like to grasp at straws(I do).... The 6z NAM was greatly improved 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 7 hours ago, Snow88 said: How so ? If it comes further west everyone will get in on the action. It's not as simple as saying, it comes west it snows. First off look back at nyc snowstorms, how many times did they not have any good HP to the north or cold air in place before a system? Heck NYC dew pts aren't even below freezing on saturday, so you can't even evapo cool down. Meaning you're solely relying on dynamics to bring cold air in. West doesn't mean you snow either. Track further west also means stronger easterly flow out ahead of system and stronger sw flow in the mid levels. Look aback at the 18z run of eps, you had 23 members show over .5 of qpf, yet only 7 member show anything over 2". Thats gotta tell you something right there odds are heavily not in your favor not even with a further west track. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The little low that the models have ahead of the coastal is causing a weakness in the trough for the main low which allows the storm to escape without coming up the coast. Combine that with some left over energy in the west and also a progressive trough and you will have yourself a non event. I think it is over but you never know with all these vorts flying down . Glad you are aware the storm is going to miss. 1st step in recovery. Mt Holly morning afd mentions possibly grazing coastal nj...but a fish storm. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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