CIK62 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 If you wanna raise your weather prediction verification scores, start predicting how many 50-Degree Days we might have in the next 15, instead of how many inches of snow are not going to accumulate. The PV rearrangement is going to give us dirty cold air that mixes with Pacific air, or never reaches past the EC and out into the Atlantic. Our cold source region is HB. The latest GFS does not even have a BN day it seems. I bet that if matters are not cleared up by the weekend (for what remains of the winter), major EC meteorologists will hold a 'secret' intranet conference or something and just call off the rest of winter. That would allow them to share the blame, however it goes. No more speaking with forked tongue. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Every model has a big storm near the 7th Just 10 short days away! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 49 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Every model has a big storm near the 7th That means it is a lock to not happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, NJsnow89 said: Euro has not budged at all. Fish storm Dr No. Has there ever been a Dr Yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 25 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Dr No. Has there ever been a Dr Yes? Dr No has been awful this winter. I'm starting to hate winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The trough is actually quite amplified but the flow is too progressive. Really could have used some ridging over Greenland. The lack of blocking is a major issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 27 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Dr No has been awful this winter. I'm starting to hate winter. Seems to be a two way over salted street, winter does not have much love for us either, as always ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Definitely a few interesting EPS members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 28 minutes ago, rclab said: Seems to be a two way over salted street, winter does not have much love for us either, as always ....... I think we could see a string of clunkers coming up especially with the long term +NAO tendency right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The trough is actually quite amplified but the flow is too progressive. Really could have used some ridging over Greenland. The lack of blocking is a major issue. Yeah and this also really limits the upside of this event. As usual this year we’re begging for crumbs. Best case scenario the two vorts phase and slow this thing down just enough in the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I think we could see a string of clunkers coming up especially with the long term +NAO tendency right now We need something to breakup the pattern. With a few exceptions this year it's been mostly cutter central with no blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs is going to be west! really please explain 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 really please explainI think he was looking at the frame before that but you could see it was going to go more east with the flow. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Clearly, this is not going to trend in our favor. The pattern is terrible. Just that type of winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Clearly, this is not going to trend in our favor. The pattern is terrible. Just that type of winter. Lol do you have time to breathe between vacillating opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Oh well.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Oh well.... Even the lakes arent getting anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Even the lakes arent getting anything right now. Think I'm going to lay low for awhile. There's nothing going on and nothing on the horizon of any significance; the story is the AN temps and lack of snow, and the severe flu season. Flu seems to be enjoying the mild winter.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: We need something to breakup the pattern. With a few exceptions this year it's been mostly cutter central with no blocking. It looks -PNA/RNA going into mid-February. It’s becoming clear that a meaningful change in the longwave pattern for us is going to wait until the end of February and March, which I think is going to happen. While there can obviously still be cold and snow at that point, the clock will be ticking, met winter ends 3/1, Equinox, 3/19. Once you get to 3/15, sustaining winter south of New England becomes increasingly difficult; at that point, you are fighting against climo, sun angle and length of day.... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It looks -PNA/RNA going into mid-February. It’s becoming clear that a meaningful change in the longwave pattern for us is going to wait until the end of February and March, which I think is going to happen. While there can obviously still be cold and snow at that point, the clock will be ticking, met winter ends 3/1, Equinox, 3/19. Once you get to 3/15, sustaining winter south of New England becomes increasingly difficult; at that point, you are fighting against climo, sun angle and length of day.... I guess by Atlanta standards we are having/had a great winter. Perhaps in a generation or so we will be them. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Even the lakes arent getting anything right now. And further west Denver has had no measurable snow this January. A trace so far this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: We need something to breakup the pattern. With a few exceptions this year it's been mostly cutter central with no blocking. The status quo looks to continue as far as the eyes can see. If a major change is going to happen it'll be in late Feb (Isotherm has nailed it so far). It would not shock me if March ends up being colder/snowier than met winter (the bar is very low). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Euro had slightly more phasing in the midwest with a closed low. Coastal was further west this run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The status quo looks to continue as far as the eyes can see. If a major change is going to happen it'll be in late Feb (Isotherm has nailed it so far). It would not shock me if March ends up being colder/snowier than met winter (the bar is very low). It would be a continuation of recent trends. Four of the last 5 Marches in NYC have been the snowiest months of the season, and not just in the bad years. Odder still is two of the last three Marches have been colder than that seasons February. That rarely happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Overreacting a bit much milder winters happen. Cold winters happen. It’s how we get averages last twenty years have generally been cold and snowy winters. just my take. Snowier yes, but not cold by any measure. The last 20 years the December through March Period has been on average 2.5 degrees warmer than the historical averages in NYC. I state facts I don't overreact, but if you say that again I'm going to my safe space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Courtesy of SNE Thread 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Courtesy of SNE Thread That’s just east of the benchmark right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: That’s just east of the benchmark right? Looks like it's a tad north and east... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 More from the SNE THREAD 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 More from the SNE THREAD Looks like quite a few more to the west. Looking on my phone can't see how strong the LP are though. Edit: zoomed in better not many under 990 that are at BM or west. Not sure this helps us much. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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