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Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
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If you wanna raise your weather prediction verification scores, start predicting how many 50-Degree Days we might have in the next 15, instead of how many inches of snow are not going to accumulate.  

The PV rearrangement is going to give us dirty cold air that mixes with Pacific air, or never reaches past the EC and out into the Atlantic.     Our cold source region is HB.       The latest GFS does not even have a BN day it seems.      

I bet that if matters are not cleared up by the weekend (for what remains of the winter), major EC meteorologists will hold a 'secret' intranet conference or something and just call off the rest of winter.     That would allow them to share the blame, however it goes.      No more speaking with forked tongue.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The trough is actually quite amplified but the flow is too progressive. Really could have used some ridging over Greenland. The lack of blocking is a major issue.

Yeah and this also really limits the upside of this event. As usual this year we’re begging for crumbs. 

Best case scenario the two vorts phase and slow this thing down just enough in the right place. 

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Even the lakes arent getting anything right now. 

Think I'm going to lay low for awhile. There's nothing going on and nothing on the horizon of any significance; the story is the AN temps and lack of snow, and the severe flu season. Flu seems to be enjoying the mild winter....

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

We need something to breakup the pattern. With a few exceptions this year it's been mostly cutter central with no blocking.

It looks -PNA/RNA going into mid-February. It’s becoming clear that a meaningful change in the longwave pattern for us is going to wait until the end of February and March, which I think is going to happen. While there can obviously still be cold and snow at that point, the clock will be ticking, met winter ends 3/1, Equinox, 3/19. Once you get to 3/15, sustaining winter south of New England becomes increasingly difficult; at that point, you are fighting against climo, sun angle and length of day....

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks -PNA/RNA going into mid-February. It’s becoming clear that a meaningful change in the longwave pattern for us is going to wait until the end of February and March, which I think is going to happen. While there can obviously still be cold and snow at that point, the clock will be ticking, met winter ends 3/1, Equinox, 3/19. Once you get to 3/15, sustaining winter south of New England becomes increasingly difficult; at that point, you are fighting against climo, sun angle and length of day....

I guess by Atlanta standards we are having/had a great winter. Perhaps in a generation or so we will be them. As always ....

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

We need something to breakup the pattern. With a few exceptions this year it's been mostly cutter central with no blocking.

The status quo looks to continue as far as the eyes can see. 

If a major change is going to happen it'll be in late Feb (Isotherm has nailed it so far). It would not shock me if March ends up being colder/snowier than met winter (the bar is very low).

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The status quo looks to continue as far as the eyes can see. 

If a major change is going to happen it'll be in late Feb (Isotherm has nailed it so far). It would not shock me if March ends up being colder/snowier than met winter (the bar is very low).

It would be a continuation of recent trends.

Four of the last 5 Marches in NYC have been the snowiest months of the season, and not just in the bad years.

Odder still is two of the last three Marches have been colder than that seasons February. That rarely happens.

 

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11 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Overreacting a bit much

milder winters happen. Cold winters happen. It’s how we get averages

 

last twenty years have generally been cold and snowy winters. 
 

just my take. 

Snowier yes, but not cold by any measure. The last 20 years the December through March Period has been on average 2.5 degrees warmer than the historical averages in NYC.

I state facts I don't overreact, but if you say that again I'm going to my safe space.

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More from the SNE  THREAD image.thumb.png.36cb4dd6b43d4db54e7028d493988dab.png.379bc90899a46881ec6b92a55d2c3d92.png

 

Looks like quite a few more to the west. Looking on my phone can't see how strong the LP are though.  

Edit: zoomed in better not many under 990 that are at BM or west. Not sure this helps us much.

 

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

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