NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 the 12Z moves slightly west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: The GFS has been consistent in showing a big system for then, and the airmass looks a lot better than the one forecast for the 1st. It's been consistent in showing a system for the fish. The 06z was only run to show a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobjohnsonforthehall Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The main pieces of energy have yet to be well sampled. The models are just guessing at this point. I will start noticing trends from 00z overnight to 12z tomorrow and not before. And I'm not rooting for snow. Hoping that it doesn't snow actually. But realistically Miler A setups shouldn't be taken seriously or have white flags waived until you start seeing definitive trends within 72 hours of the storm. Just my opinion anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's over. Boxing day at least had models showing a hit a few days before. Then they showed a miss and then came back on board as a hit a couple days before Different evolution but this threat isnt over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I’m done tracking this system until Thursday if we don’t get any positive changes on to the next one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 12Z Ukie is in a good position but only 997 then deepens to 985 but precip is not making it past the coast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Never gets old seeing how many people need to feel a sense of certainty when participating in a hobby of inherent uncertainty. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said: The main pieces of energy have yet to be well sampled. The models are just guessing at this point. I will start noticing trends from 00z overnight to 12z tomorrow and not before. And I'm not rooting for snow. Hoping that it doesn't snow actually. But realistically Miler A setups shouldn't be taken seriously or have white flags waived until you start seeing definitive trends within 72 hours of the storm. Just my opinion anyway. The models aren't "guessing." In fact, there's a relatively solid consensus among the major globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's been consistent in showing a system for the fish. The 06z was only run to show a hit. There were other runs as well. At any rate, you don't want to be getting hits every time at this range, things are going to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, RDRY said: The models aren't "guessing." In fact, there's a relatively solid consensus among the major globals. There isn’t a consensus, just a series of off the coast solutions. The solutions themselves have significant variation. And no, they’re not just guessing, but they’re far less accurate than they’ll be once samples on land. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, RDRY said: The models aren't "guessing." In fact, there's a relatively solid consensus among the major globals. There isnt a consensus 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 52 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: If I remember correctly the 2010 day after Christmas blizzard was written off until the day before it hit. It’s not over till it’s over. Never sleep on a Miller A, lol. It was written off as a major snowstorm 2 days before it hit, with most solutions showing the storm going out to sea, some missing completely and some showing 1-2" for the 95 corridor and a few to several inches for coastal NJ and LI and SE New England, whereas 3-4 days before the event there was absolute model mayhem with complete misses and blizzards (especially on the Euro). And then the epic 12/25 0Z runs all showed a huge snowstorm, about 36 hours before the event started. Thread below. I was in Charlotte visiting family on Christmas Eve night after everyone went to sleep causally surfing the web and watching the model runs and every model showed a bomb for our area. Best Christmas present I could get, lol. I even convinced my wife and then 16 year old son that we should leave Charlotte after Christmas dinner so we could be home for the blizzard and we left around 7 pm getting caught in the snow a bit for the first 3-4 hours of the drive with several inches on even the interstates, but traffic was light and we outran the snow by about Durham and the rest of the ride was fine. I got a couple of hours of sleep, played soccer the morning of 12/26, as usual for a Sunday, then sat back and enjoyed an incredible storm. Craig Allen had this to say after seeing the 0Z suite that night: "Good data or bad, garbage in/garbage out, wish for what you do or do not want, no matter what has been said before, from feast to famine to feast....the most amazing thing has happened tonight. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL IS NOW IN LINE FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM/PSBL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT. NEVER IN 35+ YEARS OF DOING THIS HAVE I SEEN SUCH CHAOS LEADING UP TO A SOLUTION LIKE THIS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: There isn’t a consensus, just a series of off the coast solutions. The solutions themselves have significant variation. And no, they’re not just guessing, but they’re far less accurate than they’ll be once samples on land. They seem to have similar evolutions regarding northern stream interaction -- the northern energy lags behind on all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, RDRY said: They seem to have similar evolutions regarding northern stream interaction -- the northern energy lags behind on all of them. That’s very true and what I was just looking at. Anyone got a good scientific explanation for why that northern energy is ducking our system? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I think we have to give this to Thursday for a final outcome. That said a lot has to go right for this to be something major so I'm still leaning OTS. I really am not interested in a 997 low at the benchmark with rain & snow showers. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 We know storms tend to trend west so the models are really not in an awful spot for 4 days out, I just don't know if a scraper will do it temp wise for the area. We probably need a bomb closer to the coast in this type of scenario which is looking more and more unlikely but still not impossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Barman49 said: I think we have to give this to Thursday for a final outcome. That said a lot has to go right for this to be something major so I'm still leaning OTS. I really am not interested in a 997 low at the benchmark with rain & snow showers. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Agree a weak low at or east of the benchmark is rain/snow showers. This needs to be sub 990 and tracking inside the BM for the majority of the subforum to have a chance. Until I see that this is a non event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Euro? Scraper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Euro really digs the northern stream further south here. H5 looked pretty good. It then tries to form another low with the northern stream energy. This isnt sorted out yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Euro? Better but still misses 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Euro has not budged at all. Fish storm 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, NJsnow89 said: Euro has not budged at all. Fish storm You have to look at h5. This is closer to something big. SNE peeps are talking about the run now. Check out the thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Euro really digs the northern stream further south here. H5 looked pretty good. It then tries to form another low with the northern stream energy. This isnt sorted out yet.Closer to something than previous runs. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Euro run even though it was still a miss has kept me from throwing in the towel. Good improvements at H5. I'll give it to Thursday 0Z runs before pulling the plug on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I thought for sure the Euro was going to be a hit when I saw it through the first 48-60 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I thought for sure the Euro was going to be a hit when I saw it through the first 48-60 Yeah looking at the setup now I’m more confident something interesting will develop even if only for tracking purposes 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I thought for sure the Euro was going to be a hit when I saw it through the first 48-60 Eps is further west than op. Really close. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Every model has a big storm near the 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now