Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

Mid to Long Range Threats


Rjay
 Share

Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro paints a more interesting picture. It also looks substantially better than what it showed 2 days ago. 

With a lot of luck something good could come out of this. 

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

I wouldn't say slim. Let's see where we are after this weekend. Pattern looks better as alluded by Coastalwx in the SNE thread.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Snow88 said:

I wouldn't say slim. Let's see where we are after this weekend. Pattern looks better as alluded by Coastalwx in the SNE thread.

was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

EPS Idv have some hits around the 30th to 1st. The better look is around the 5th-6th when we have a colder airmass. 
 

I would say we have a chance but better shot inland.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...

He thinks the pacific will be better than what it is now.  Of course we also need the cold. Having the MJO possibly go into 1 and 2 will help if it does go into those phases.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...

And of course the opposite happens quite often too. Especially for areas N & W of the city. People only remember the ones SNE cashes in on. When their to far east and in the warmer air everyone forgets those, especially in southern coastal CT, RI and MA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can`t get any closer to p8 than that

Verification for the previous 7 days

 

 

7-Day MJO index verification from the GFS

The GFS gets this into p8 for a day.

So let`s see if that happens and that idea was at least right as the wave is collapsing. 

They agree on the next 7 days that we are in the middle of the Null p 

 

Phase diagram of the MJO index from the operational GFS

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models really like the Jan 31 through Feb 2 time frame for storminess. There's a good +PNA spike ahead of it that helps with the two branches phasing. 

GFS has consistently shown some sort of east coast storm for 5+ consecutive runs now.

A bombing coastal is one way to get snow in a poor airmass. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

maybe this one will happen!

Extremely marginal PAC airmass in place and that’s putting it nicely, no arctic high in SE Canada, +EPO, no strong 50/50 low, no -NAO block to stop it from becoming an inland runner/lakes cutter should it amp up....what could possibly go wrong??

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

the place to be is on a fishing boat parked in the middle of that dark red area off the Monmouth County NJ coast - 30 miles or so:snowing:

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

Of course it will happen because I'll be in Florida for a Bar Mitzvah. As long as this isn't a coastal storm that runs all the way up the few days before so I have good weather for the drive down leaving here Thursday the 30th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Of course it will happen because I'll be in Florida for a Bar Mitzvah. As long as this isn't a coastal storm that runs all the way up the few days before so I have good weather for the drive down leaving here Thursday the 30th.

You wouldn't be missing much from the looks of that.....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...