TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 How much snow have you guys had down there in your area? We're at least 2 feet below normal up here in the snow belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: How much snow have you guys had down there in your area? We're at least 2 feet below normal up here in the snow belt. I'm only at 3.3 here in Brooklyn , NY. Awful winter so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps Courtesy of SNE thread need it below 985 in that green circle a weaker system wont be dynamic enough to create enough cold air to bring down to the lower layers - 850's are adequate - also it can snow if the surface is a couple degrees above 32 and accumulate if the intensity is strong enough has happened before..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: need it below 985 in that green circle a weaker system wont be dynamic enough to create enough cold air to bring down to the lower layers - 850's are adequate - also it can snow if the surface is a couple degrees above 32 and accumulate if the intensity is strong enough has happened before..... We need another 50-75 Miles jog west and if we get that with a 980 millibar storm this will be a blizzard! Some of the models are painting 980 and below so it’s possible 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: We need another 50-75 Miles jog west and if we get that with a 980 millibar storm this will be a blizzard! Some of the models are painting 980 and below so it’s possible Yep slightly more west and this would be a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: How much snow have you guys had down there in your area? We're at least 2 feet below normal up here in the snow belt. 18.8 inches Eastern Orange County in HV. When you say you're two feet below normal, don't you average 200-300 inches per year in the Tug Hill? I'll take your bad years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Eps Courtesy of SNE threadThat 978 off the south Jersey coast would work nicely. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I’ve always been curious about our chances without vs. with blocking/neg NAO. Considering how tough it is to get a good setup, is it really that comparatively tough to get significant snows without a ‘good’ setup? Especially considering how many factors are involved in a good setup. If you have a western ridge and eastern trof positioned correctly you don’t really need the NAO to be negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 18.8 inches Eastern Orange County in HV. When you say you're two feet below normal, don't you average 200-300 inches per year in the Tug Hill? I'll take your bad years. I was in the Tug Hill last winter. The winters have sucked so bad, the economy is being greatly affected by it there. Partially lost my job as a result of it. Now I'm in the North Syracuse burbs where I average 130 to 140 inches a year. More than half of the 45 inches of snow I have received so far came in November. 20 some inches total over December and January, with many thaws has made it very ugly and frustrating for winter enthusiasts up here as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: I doubt this is a cutter - especially with the Euro farthest east now my guess this is a mix of every precip type across the area Doesn’t need to be a cutter by any stretch to come too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you have a western ridge and eastern trof positioned correctly you don’t really need the NAO to be negative. I’m which case I assume it’s our thread the needle scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I'm only at 3.3 here in Brooklyn , NY. Awful winter so far 35 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: How much snow have you guys had down there in your area? We're at least 2 feet below normal up here in the snow belt. 6.3” northern bk. Ant you sure you’re at 3.3”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you have a western ridge and eastern trof positioned correctly you don’t really need the NAO to be negative. Yup. Pretty sure the 2/14/06 storm or the 2017-18 storms happened during at least not a great NAO. It’s just a big mess with the number of vorts in the trough coming through so the models will have a rough time resolving everything for another few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yep slightly more west and this would be a good storm. Agreed plenty of time for that to happen in my opinion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 52 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: How much snow have you guys had down there in your area? We're at least 2 feet below normal up here in the snow belt. 11 at BDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: 6.3” northern bk. Ant you sure you’re at 3.3”? The biggest weenie lives in the worst place for snow and here. That seems legit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: The biggest weenie lives in the worst place for snow and here. That seems legit. What a cruel twist of fate that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Wow, you guys have lots more patience than I do. I prefer WINTER in winter. I grew up in Lancaster, PA...so am very familiar with the climate of the Piedmont/Coastal Plain. Vowed never to live in such a mild climate again! The wife has other plans.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Icon way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: The biggest weenie lives in the worst place for snow and here. That seems legit. Long Beach probably has the same as Anthony. We've been getting an extra 1-2" on each event this season up here vs the south shore. And Ant has the heat island working somewhat against him too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: Long Beach probably has the same as Anthony. We've been getting an extra 1-2" on each event this season up here vs the south shore. And Ant has the heat island working somewhat against him too. I do to tbh. But the smaller events I still manage to get some accumulation. I just feel like he didn’t get the chance to measure the smaller events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 GFS way NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 25 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Icon way east Long range cras is over Chicago. Blend the 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 GFS verbatim is warm for the coast but with a low in that spot at that strength I think this would be mostly snow for everyone. This could be big if it bombs out a bit earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 '' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: Oh man. It has days to trend more west to. Those trends. How far west do you want it? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Remarkably consistent incremental westward shifts on last 4 GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Rjay said: How far west do you want it? Lol A bit more west and bombing out earlier would be ideal but yea too much more west and we are going to get the boats ready and the way this winter is going that wouldn't shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: A bit more west and bombing out earlier would be ideal but yea too much more west and we are going to get the boats ready and the way this winter is going that wouldn't shock me. going to be interesting how the EURO reacts to whatever data is injected into it over the next couple of hours...……. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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