NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 GEFS quite better... way west of 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: GEFS quite better... way west of 12Z Looks great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: GEFS quite better... way west of 12Z My gut tells me this phases but comes too far inland. Hope only the first part is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: My gut tells me this phases but comes too far inland. Hope only the first part is true. I doubt this is a cutter - especially with the Euro farthest east now my guess this is a mix of every precip type across the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, NEG NAO said: I doubt this is a cutter - especially with the Euro farthest east now Why can’t u guys think positive and say my gut is telling me this is just right a phaser with a benchmark track 980 low 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I doubt this is a cutter - especially with the Euro farthest east now my guess this is a mix of every precip type across the area Quite possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Quite possible I highly doubt it honestly not one model shows that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I highly doubt it honestly not one model shows that... 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I highly doubt it honestly not one model shows that... Not one model shows a snowy outcome for nyc but you’re still making a case for it..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: A record ridge out West could mitigate the fast northern stream to some extent. We just don’t want the track so far west that it hugs the coast too closely. i think this being a capture scenario makes an inland snowstorm less likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Day late..Dollar short.... https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html#us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Not one model shows a snowy outcome for nyc but you’re still making a case for it..... The GFS shows some snow, navgem shows a snowstorm, and cmc showed a blizzard just yesterday. Honestly 5 days out this is where I want to be at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i think this being a capture scenario makes an inland snowstorm less likely 4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: The GFS shows some snow, navgem shows a snowstorm, and cmc showed a blizzard just yesterday. Honestly 5 days out this is where I want to be at this time. I agree - I think an 18 Z GFS track is as close to the coast as we want it with faster intensification - would be favorable for more frozen heavier precip 850s are reasonable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, NEG NAO said: I agree - I think an 18 Z GFS track is as close to the coast as we want it with faster intensification - would be favorable for more frozen heavier precip we need it to phase at the right time. total crapshoot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, forkyfork said: we need it to phase at the right time. total crapshoot The spike in the PNA ridge will help that . NAO is also going to take a small dip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: @Allsnow would that be snow? haha all jokes aside navgem is a joke of a model but if that phase happens 12 hours before the GFS 18z shows, we can squeeze a blizzard out of this and slow this puppy down while it intensifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Did the weeklies come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Did the weeklies come out? Yes. They look good for the first two weeks of February. Then more of a gradient look with -epo. For whatever they are worth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Yes. They look good for the first two weeks of February. Then more of a gradient look with -epo. For whatever they are worth. Gefs is quite active moving forward Gfs loves your storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yes. They look good for the first two weeks of February. Then more of a gradient look with -epo. For whatever they are worth. Thanks. Gradient can work great for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 in like a liar...out on the lam.... February !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Doorman said: in like a liar...out on the lam.... February !!!! From Mid Atlantic member 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Why can’t u guys think positive and say my gut is telling me this is just right a phaser with a benchmark track 980 low Gut instincts are mostly worthless and "positive" is relative, in that positive for the vast majority of folks is that this never turns into anything frozen or just doesn't happen. I feel like this is an alternative universe here. My gut tells me this ain't our winter, and this storm won't be any different. But that isn't worth much.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Gut instincts are mostly worthless and "positive" is relative, in that positive for the vast majority of folks is that this never turns into anything frozen or just doesn't happen. I feel like this is an alternative universe here. My gut tells me this ain't our winter, and this storm won't be any different. But that isn't worth much.... Yeah, weenism is a minority club alright... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, White Gorilla said: Yeah, weenism is a minority club alright... Indeed. But I enjoy a good snowstorm as much as anyone. But this year I'm not missing it. Maybe I've seen too many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Eps came west and well west of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Good news but since the trend is your friend we don’t want it to start crashing west now. Too soon lol. If your concern is that we end up with a cutter, you shouldn't worry. Trough is not sharp enough for such a solution unless we see marked changes at the upper levels in the next couple of days. If this thing phases at the optimum time I would expect a BM track or just inside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 this outcome would fit perfectly into this season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Eps Courtesy of SNE thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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