jm1220 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, PB-99 said: The UKMET / ICON / JMA / NAVGEM / NAV ensembles all have a similar look. ( It`s not those 2 ) , however It`s a bad pattern / set up. But it`s late Jan and you just need to deepen / close off in the right spot. ( It would have to be absolutely perfect we know ) . Hat tip to Eric Webb for this good luck figuring out which one of the 4 Vorts phases and where Exactly. The flow is a mess and models don’t know what to resolve yet. Too early to write anything off. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 The model sees this on OBX so that`s a start , but that`s not where you want the jet aimed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The threat isn’t over for them because of there latitude and climo. They can get away with way more imperfections in a set up then we can. This is why they avg way more snow then us. Somewhat of an exaggeration, depending on what you define as way more. Boston averages 17 inches more per season than NYC but 17 inches less than Albany at the same latitude. No one ever seems to remember when their easterly locations work against them too. if you're just referring to the city and the coastal plain of NJ what you say is true, but most areas N&W of NYC and even a few spots on the North shore of LI average the same or more snow per season than many parts of SNE, especially coastal CT, RI and MA. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Eps still has a storm signal just offshore. Plenty of members west of the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Eps still has a storm signal just offshore. Plenty of members west of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Somewhat of an exaggeration, depending on what you define as way more. Boston averages 17 inches more per season than NYC but 17 inches less than Albany at the same latitude. No one ever seems to remember when their easterly locations work against them too. if you're just referring to the city and the coastal plain of NJ what you say is true, but most areas N&W of NYC and even a few spots on the North shore of LI average the same or more snow per season than many parts of SNE, especially coastal CT, RI and MA. Yes, I was referring to the costal plain. We have spots to the north and west of the metro that probably Avg more then Boston. But those same locations fail in comparison to a place like Orh. The point of the post is their longitude and climo is more conducive for snow in a marginal set up. I believe currently Boston has 17 inches to nyc 2.8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Anyone know if Earthlight (John) has chimed in on this potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yes, I was referring to the costal plain. We have spots to the north and west of the metro that probably Avg more then Boston. But those same locations fail in comparison to a place like Orh. The point of the post is their longitude and climo is more conducive for snow in a marginal set up. I believe currently Boston has 17 inches to nyc 2.8? Boston has 14.6” I believe and NYC 4.8”. But plenty of others around have more-I’m up to 9.5” for the season, EWR has 6.9”, etc. It’s been lousy for everyone and just about everyone’s below average except around Albany which got crushed by the early Dec storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 50 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UK/Icon solutions aren’t realistic in this pattern. This will either miss or it’ll phase with the NS and be a monster. I don’t really see any other possibility Late phase is on the table too and most probable imo. However because it's 4-5 days out it's still worth monitoring. Did notice the Euro trending towards phasing over the past 2 days, it would be the only way for us to snow given poor airmass. I wonder if 2006 is still an analog for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A "KU" snowstorm is a storm of the kind featured in Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's research on Northeast snowstorms. They wrote a two-volume work on the storms: https://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-1-2-Set/dp/1878220640 Thanks Don I know who Paul Kocin is but not the other guy I will check it out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: Boston has 14.6” I believe and NYC 4.8”. But plenty of others around have more-I’m up to 9.5” for the season, EWR has 6.9”, etc. It’s been lousy for everyone and just about everyone’s below average except around Albany which got crushed by the early Dec storm. I believe interior sne is around avg or a bit above. The point is in marginal set ups they will often have more wiggle room. Take the December storm for example. That was a marginal airmass with white rain in the city. Sne and Albany got crushed. The point of the post wasn’t to compare who is having a worst winter. It was to show how in marginal set ups they often have more room for error. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: I believe interior sne is around avg or a bit above. The point is in marginal set ups they will often have more wiggle room. Take the December storm for example. That was a marginal airmass with white rain in the city. Sne and Albany got crushed. The point of the post wasn’t to compare who is having a worst winter. It was to show how in marginal set ups they often have more room for error. Are you saying it’s game over for the city 100%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: I believe interior sne is around avg or a bit above. The point is in marginal set ups they will often have more wiggle room. Take the December storm for example. That was a marginal airmass with white rain in the city. Sne and Albany got crushed. The point of the post wasn’t to compare who is having a worst winter. It was to show how in marginal set ups they often have more room for error. Oh without a doubt. Even the difference between my old place on the immediate south shore and where I live now is comical at times. On Tue, there was no snow left at all from the weekend minor event SWFE in Long Beach but a good amount left where I live now, almost full coverage some areas. It’s a 45 minute drive between both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Are you saying it’s game over for the city 100%? I think the set up and airmass favor areas of the interior/sne. Could nyc thread the needle and get it to work? It’s possible but I would bet against it. I think it’s obvious the set up is bad when even the models that show hits are not snow for Nyc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 GUIDANCE---- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 The exact evolution may have to wait to within the NAM’s best range. Plenty going on with the fast northern stream and timing of the southern stream shortwave ejection. A perfectly timed phase and UL track will be necessary to compensate for the lack of high pressure to the N and NW. It’s been a while since a phase worked out for us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 20 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Oh without a doubt. Even the difference between my old place on the immediate south shore and where I live now is comical at times. On Tue, there was no snow left at all from the weekend minor event SWFE in Long Beach but a good amount left where I live now, almost full coverage some areas. It’s a 45 minute drive between both. Yep, it’s climo. And more often then not climo will win out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The exact evolution may have to wait to within the NAM’s best range. Plenty going on with the fast northern stream and timing of the southern stream shortwave ejection. A perfectly timed phase and UL track will be necessary to compensate for the lack of high pressure to the N and NW. It’s been a while since a phase worked out for us. The bad luck has to end sometime? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The exact evolution may have to wait to within the NAM’s best range. Plenty going on with the fast northern stream and timing of the southern stream shortwave ejection. A perfectly timed phase and UL track will be necessary to compensate for the lack of high pressure to the N and NW. It’s been a while since a phase worked out for us. Chris your an stat guy... when was the last time we had a miller A with a similar airmass that worked out and dropped us a bomb! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 if you want a last minute west trend a gulf low is how it gets done 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 That’s sexy! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: That’s sexy! if you're outside the best banding in this setup you're getting rain 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 55 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Anyone know if Earthlight (John) has chimed in on this potential? He used his buckle up line in a mid-December tweet when long range looked good for a day. We haven't even left the driveway since strapping in, haha. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if you're outside the best banding in this setup you're getting rain I don’t believe that! Not with a strong dynamic low like that that’s just my opinion. edit I can see how the guys maybe in the western fringe in PA maybe get some light rain, but remember this isn’t spring, it’s still an okay airmass... the 850’s and everything above surface are below 0 Celsius. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 25 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I don’t believe that! Not with a strong dynamic low like that that’s just my opinion. edit I can see how the guys maybe in the western fringe in PA maybe get some light rain, but remember this isn’t spring, it’s still an okay airmass... the 850’s and everything above surface are below 0 Celsius. It can be plenty cold at 850mb and still get rain. 850mb is still 5000ft up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: I can only imagine what JB is writing right now nothing....he's rambling on about Arctic sea ice. Very little writing from him since he jumped ship on the pattern change a couple of weeks ago. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 You know it's bad when the NAVGEM comes out. Given the airmass you need a perfectly placed phased bomb. Possible yes but the UK goes to show we need help. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: You know it's bad when the NAVGEM comes out. Given the airmass you need a perfectly placed phased bomb. Possible yes but the UK goes to show we need help. Ukmet track isn’t exactly ideal. It needs to go west another 50 miles and we need a sub 980 storm for this to be a real bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: You know it's bad when the NAVGEM comes out. Given the airmass you need a perfectly placed phased bomb. Possible yes but the UK goes to show we need help. The NAVGEM and ICON, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: The NAVGEM and ICON, lol. Add JMA + DeepThunder and we're locked and loaded 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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