SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I agree. As I mentioned a week ago, that timeframe holds the most promise. By mid Feb we'll know enough whether to write off winter completely or not. If it's this same ole 10+ day out song & dance then the rest of winter is more likely to follow the early 2010s late winter patterns. Arctic air will have to start getting involved post Feb 15 otherwise even a perfect track won't matter. That +EPO needs to flip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Is the MJO projected to go to into phases 1-2 by then? How much is the pattern MJO driven currently? I think its a combo of mjo that produced a record +AAM event that causes the pac jet to go on roids. It doesn't help that you have th intense goa low that also tightens the pac jet. That doesn't allow the pna ridge out west to build. With that being flatter it prevents the northern stream s/w from digging further south. Also think bad strat alignment has cut off cold air supply. That will change after the 5th as the strat alignment is more favorable for -epo development. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: The main forcing is currently in 8 but we still have convection in 6. The +AAM and Pv orientation is negativity effecting any results from p8. We will be in 2/3 to start February. With some strat hits we should get into a better airmass by the 5th. Just now, tombo82685 said: I think its a combo of mjo that produced a record +AAM event that causes the pac jet to go on roids. It doesn't help that you have th intense goa low that also tightens the pac jet. That doesn't allow the pna ridge out west to build. With that being flatter it prevents the northern stream s/w from digging further south. Also think bad strat alignment has cut off cold air supply. That will change after the 5th as the strat alignment is more favorable for -epo development. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How is this pattern bad ? A strong storm would be good for the area. People always worry everytime we track Miller A storms. It's hilarious.. It's all about timing Patttern is awful dude-just about every telleconnection is against a frozen event.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Patttern is awful dude-just about every telleconnection is against a frozen event.... Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just get the timing right with the northern and southern stream and this storm will trend west. Plenty of time for that to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Just get the timing right with the northern and southern stream and this storm will trend west. Plenty of time for that to happen. I think it will get close enough for precip but in order for it to be mainly frozen it has to be a dynamic system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Really? LOL a mostly positive NAO and a very slightly positive PNA. EPO is raging positive and the continent is flooded with mild air-not exactly the stuff of significant coastal snow events, very rare to get a good snowstorm here without an arctic or even modified arctic airmass in place-the stuff now is modified polar pacific garbage 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: LOL a mostly positive NAO and a very slightly positive PNA. EPO is raging positive and the continent is flooded with mild air-not exactly the stuff of significant coastal snow events So we never had snowstorms in a bad pattern? I'm guessing you think this storm is over 5 days out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 990 low in a perfect spot on the Ukmet and this is the result. Putrid airmass Need a much deeper low than 990 for it to snow for the entire area. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: Isn’t the NAO projected to go negative end of this week? maybe the models haven’t really grasped that regarding this storm? just a thought Models are having a really tough time with all the shortwave associated with this storm. This happens all the time with Miller A storms. Eric Webb just posted stating how the models will not have a clue this far out. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 If this storm is a sub 980 millibars low pressure and tracks over the benchmark with a classic +PNA trough, I don’t think you need northern stream interaction to overcome the wetbulbing effect. Globals always underestimate the thermals which in my opinion is huge, it’s happened too many times to name. Evaporative and dynamic cooling with a sub 980 storm will give New York City a big snowstorm. That’s my opinion. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Looking closer at the UK that would be a slap in the face. I'd rather the whole thing just go ots. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: If this storm is a sub 980 millibars low pressure and tracks over the benchmark with a classic +PNA trough, I don’t think you need northern stream interaction to overcome the wetbulbing effect. Globals always underestimate the thermals which in my opinion is huge, it’s happened too many times to name. Evaporative and dynamic cooling with a sub 980 storm will give New York City a big snowstorm. That’s my opinion. Like if you agree. I agree Too many people canceling this storm 5 days out. Its hilarious. Too many vorts for the models to handle. We see this over and over again with Miller A storms. I see Allsnow laughing. Typical. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Courtesy of SNE thread Madness with the vorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: I agree Too many people canceling this storm 5 days out. Its hilarious. Too many vorts for the models to handle. We see this over and over again with Miller A storms. I see Allsnow laughing. Typical. This looks nice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I agree Too many people canceling this storm 5 days out. Its hilarious. Too many vorts for the models to handle. We see this over and over again with Miller A storms. I see Allsnow laughing. Typical. too many vorts usually means not a big consolidated storm....you need to take the snow goggles off-the cards are stacked against us here. 1 in a 1000 shot 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: This looks nice 12z models besides the euro came west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 The 12z euro is OTS as the pna ridge gets beaten down by the wave train/vortex. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Then dont track it man. Stop trolling. You never learn you lesson. You do this all the time while tracking. How have the models been so far this year ? Yes they have sucked. Sit back and keep tracking. LOL-no one is trolling, just trying to get you to learn about basic pattern recognition-you look silly right now with statements like "it won't take much in the way of changes for us to get a snowstorm this weekend" 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: too many vorts usually means not a big consolidated storm....you need to take the snow goggles off-the cards are stacked against us here. 1 in a 1000 shot It’s 6 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s 6 days away. pattern doesn't really improve in those 5-6 days-it's the same pile of garbage going forward. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Exactly This thread is a disaster. Time to read posts in the SNE thread where they think the threat isnt over yet. The threat isn’t over for them because of there latitude and climo. They can get away with way more imperfections in a set up then we can. This is why they avg way more snow then us. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: The threat isn’t over for them because of there latitude and climo. They can get away with way more imperfections in a set up then we can. This is why they avg way more snow then us. Bingo. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: The threat isn’t over for them because of there latitude and climo. They can get away with way more imperfections in a set up then we can. This is why they avg way more snow then us. It isnt over for anyone. I guess you havent been tracking storms this winter. Euro has screwed us multiple times 3 days out. Euro left energy behind in the SW All we can do now is keep tracking 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 33 minutes ago, Barman49 said: Looking closer at the UK that would be a slap in the face. I'd rather the whole thing just go ots. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk The UK/Icon solutions aren’t realistic in this pattern. This will either miss or it’ll phase with the NS and be a monster. I don’t really see any other possibility 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mersky said: euro buried energy in the sw, a known bias of the euro and the eps. No other model buried it like the euro just did. If he didnt do that the result would have been different. A lot has to go right for this to be a snowstorm, that is a fact. But those writing it off 6 days out could have egg on their face when all is said and done Agree Foolish to write it off this early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njshore Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 With no blocking & a progressive pattern this just isn’t gunna come together in my opinion.And next week looks mild more good news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UK/Icon solutions aren’t realistic in this pattern. This will either miss or it’ll phase with the NS and be a monster. I don’t really see any other possibility The UKMET / ICON / JMA / NAVGEM / NAV ensembles all have a similar look. ( It`s not those 2 ) , however It`s a bad pattern / set up. But it`s late Jan and you just need to deepen / close off in the right spot. ( It would have to be absolutely perfect we know ) . Hat tip to Eric Webb for this good luck figuring out which one of the 4 Vorts phases and where. It`s why the models will have a hard time seeing it, let alone close in on a forecast. It is hard enough to snow on the coast with a good set up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 The threat isn’t over yet. It won’t be over for anyone for another few days. Please stop with the bickering. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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