geeter1 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Help me out what is a KU ? The study of Northeast Snowstorms by meterologists Uccellini and Paul Kocin. Think I'm spelling their names correctly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Help me out what is a KU ? A "KU" snowstorm is a storm of the kind featured in Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's research on Northeast snowstorms. They wrote a two-volume work on the storms: https://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-1-2-Set/dp/1878220640 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 A "KU" snowstorm is a storm of the kind featured in Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's research on Northeast snowstorms. They wrote a two-volume work on the storms: https://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-1-2-Set/dp/1878220640Excellent & very informative. I bought them years ago and still look at them from time to time. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Barman49 said: Excellent & very informative. I bought them years ago and still look at them from time to time. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk I did, too. They're a great resource. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I did, too. They're a great resource. Great photos too; the section on near misses is most fascinating; one shows an ice storm the likes of which most have been nothing short of epic ( a miss, I guess, because it wasn't snow ) and the images of people trying to scale icebergs in Manhattan after the 93 superstorm, where ten inches of snow, sleet and freezing rain crippled the area.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Icon is a SECS. Hands down best icon run I’ve ever seen so far with this model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Icon is a SECS. Hands down best icon run I’ve ever seen so far with this model Inland areas do well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Inland areas do well You’re right I was wrong, Tucky but at least it’s not out to sea! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 LP is way too close to the coast with no cold air it's rain for most. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 27 minutes ago, Barman49 said: LP is way too close to the coast with no cold air it's rain for most. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Not hanging my hat on any one solution so far out. I just look at these and say "OK". I will start paying much more attention come Wed and even then with cautious interpretation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Pna a lot sharper on the 12z gfs. But trough is still positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Pna a lot sharper on the 12z gfs. But trough is still positively tilted. Northern stream is a bit faster though. Let's see if it catches up with the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Northern stream is a bit faster though. Let's see if it catches up with the southern stream. Almost there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Here was the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 27 minutes ago, Barman49 said: LP is way too close to the coast with no cold air it's rain for most. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk The icon is making this all southern stream with no northern stream involvement. This helps in really warming temps along the coast despite a decent track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Almost there. Good improvements with the 12z suite thus far. More work needs to be done to get this up the coast but nothing insurmountable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 The icon is making this all southern stream with no northern stream involvement. This helps in really warming temps along the coast despite a decent track.Yeah. The track would work this time if year if there was some cold air in place. Relying on the storm to track perfectly and bomb to make its cold air is really threading the needle. Like you said especially with no NS interaction. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Barman49 said: Yeah. The track would work this time if year if there was some cold air in place. Relying on the storm to track perfectly and bomb to make its cold air is really threading the needle. Like you said especially with no NS interaction. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Great post. It’s not impossible but with no northern stream you’re relying strictly on dynamics to get it done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Great post. It’s not impossible but with no northern stream you’re relying strictly on dynamics to get it done. Thanks. We've seen some of these work out for us in the past. I'm just hoping based on the last two winters our luck hasn't run out for these types of systems. We all need at least a MECS to calm us down I think. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Great post. It’s not impossible but with no northern stream you’re relying strictly on dynamics to get it done. With no -NAO the southern stream alone wouldn’t get this up here anyway. The ICON scenario isn’t really logical. In order to get a solely southern stream system like 2/83 or 12/09 the NAO has to be fairly negative 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 I think Allsnow is correct - when you need so much to go right on the models to give us snow, we should temper expectations. Still, it is nice to finally have a chance, and there look to be more chances after.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: With no -NAO the southern stream alone wouldn’t get this up here anyway. The ICON scenario isn’t really logical. In order to get a solely southern stream system like 2/83 or 12/09 the NAO has to be fairly negative This! The setup is really horrible. No -NAO, no -AO, no 50/50 low, +EPO, +WPO, a positively tilted trough, and a marginal, weak +PNA that isn’t really poleward. When you combine this with the fact that there is a very putrid Pacific airmass over us with no arctic high locked in over SE Canada to funnel the cold down, good luck getting a snowstorm in the metro area this weekend 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 I think we'll see a late phase where parts of eastern New England and especially eastern Canada will benefit. Although impressive the PNA spike will likely not be enough to counteract the lack of Atlantic blocking. The flow is way too fast and unless things change next 2-3 days I don't think we'll score. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Might want to look at the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2020 Author Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Might want to look at the UKMET 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This! The setup is really horrible. No -NAO, no -AO, no 50/50 low, +EPO, +WPO, a positively tilted trough, and a marginal, weak +PNA that isn’t really poleward. When you combine this with the fact that there is a very putrid Pacific airmass over us with no arctic high locked in over SE Canada to funnel the cold down, good luck getting a snowstorm in the metro area this weekend The setup isnt terrible at all. It's all about timing. NAO based off the tellies are going negative around this time. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Rjay said: Looks to be all southern stream. I would think temps are warm for the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2020 Author Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Looks to be all southern stream. I would think temps are warm for the coast. Mid to upper 30s for NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Looks to be all southern stream. I would think temps are warm for the coast. All southern stream and a low in the Great Lakes 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 9 MB`s in 6 hours. You just need that to happen 6 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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