Rjay Posted January 27, 2020 Author Share Posted January 27, 2020 29 minutes ago, David-LI said: GFS caves to euro, OTS. It's actually way more amped up. Fast flow kills us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 5 hours ago, Rjay said: It's actually way more amped up. Fast flow kills us. Everything else was flat at 0z. Eps was more amped than the op and the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 6 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I’d like to see it off the coast this far out. Let it trend westward over the next few days. I know it’s never good to be in the bullseye this far out. This might be the period where the models lose the storm just to bring it back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 6 hours ago, NEG NAO said: not totally yet Flatter on the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Flatter on the 6z run Flatter but still way OTS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, NJsnow89 said: Flatter but still way OTS I just said that. Long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Eps is still decent compared to the op and other models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This might be the period where the models lose the storm just to bring it back. That is what I think is happening here. While there is no certainty this will be a hit for us I think this will adjust back closer to the coast but it may take at least a few model runs before that starts to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps is still decent compared to the op and other models. Definitely showed some improvement on the 00Z run. 06Z GEFS also more supportive of some snow here this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Looking over last nights Euro run this morning even though the storm went wide right, there were big changes at the upper levels compared to 12z. If only that northern stream was a bit faster. Euro came precariously close to a monster solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Looking over last nights Euro run this morning even though the storm went wide right, there were big changes at the upper levels compared to 12z. If only that northern stream was a bit faster. Euro came precariously close to a monster solution. The jet streak was impressive on the 0z run. The eps has some members with a nice snowfall for the coast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 FWIW here is the 6z icon. More amplified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Miller A’s are exceedingly difficult to track this far out. Still think is our best chance YTD for a big time KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 All about when the phase happens or if it happens. It has to happen in the right place and way to ensure a favorable track. Still way too early to iron out details but it could be a very nice event if it comes together. There’s enough of a ridge out west that I’d monitor it for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Miller A’s are exceedingly difficult to track this far out. Still think is our best chance YTD for a big time KU. Help me out what is a KU ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Hopefully the ridge out west trends stronger otherwise it'll never phase or it'll be too late. Plenty of time for things to change though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 57 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Miller A’s are exceedingly difficult to track this far out. Still think is our best chance YTD for a big time KU. If this has your attention then it has mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Hopefully the ridge out west trends stronger otherwise it'll never phase or it'll be too late. Plenty of time for things to change though. Kocin and Ucellini, sort of the Dean Martin/ Jerry Lewis of snowstorms, and authors of the bible, Northeast Snowstorms, which was written before the big decade of the 2010's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 UKMET NOW ON PIVITOL WEATHER: Doesn't look that bad 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: exactly - a prime example is this along with the other threads directly related to Boxing Day KU 2010 We had a completely different h5 set up for Boxing Day lol. Just because it trended west does not automatically make it comparable. The issue is the progressive nature of the flow { wave spacing and vortex} all killing the sharpness of the ridge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: We had a completely different h5 set up for Boxing Day lol. Just because it trended west does not automatically make it comparable. The issue is the progressive nature of the flow { wave spacing and vortex} all killing the sharpness of the ridge. Lmaooo exactly. There is absolutely no comparison whatsoever to Boxing Day, zero lol. You had an extreme -NAO and -AO and deep arctic air with a banana high in place, strong 50/50 low, among other things, nothing is similar to this weekend 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We had a completely different h5 set up for Boxing Day lol. Just because it trended west does not automatically make it comparable. The issue is the progressive nature of the flow { wave spacing and vortex} all killing the sharpness of the ridge. Yes. That's why this storm is going to come down to timing.Long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Yes. That's why this storm is going to come down to timing.Long ways to go. You want to see improvements out west with the ridge. (Not impossible 5 days out) This will allow the northern stream to dive in further south. The ukmet was a southeast mass hit and the flow is too progressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We had a completely different h5 set up for Boxing Day lol. Just because it trended west does not automatically make it comparable. The issue is the progressive nature of the flow { wave spacing and vortex} all killing the sharpness of the ridge. did I say it was similar ? I was responding to the poster who said "Miller A’s are exceedingly difficult to track this far out". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: You want to see improvements out west with the ridge. (Not impossible 5 days out) This will allow the northern stream to dive in further south. The ukmet was a southeast mass hit and the flow is too progressive. We would probably also need the UL to close off right over the area to make up for the lack of any high pressure to the N or NW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, bluewave said: We would probably also need the UL to close off right over the area to make up for the lack of any high pressure to the N or NW. Yep. Need it’s dynamics to overcome the meh airmass/high sliding East. Lots stacked against this for the coast. But it’s not impossible. Great post. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Posted these desired fixes away about 30 minutes ago and was really my 1st stab at this one because of a SW getting caught in an overall pattern. I want to erase the energy hanging on its backside. I want to push the heights into S Central Canada which would allow the heights to back around and up the EC and allow the backside energy to dive in and consolidate on Hatteras and allow the heights to rise on the east coast. Yes it's close, but it's also close to adjusting and escaping. The models have moved away from the big phase and that is what is needed for this to work. So we want to start seeing more robust LP. Again I haven't been definitive on this one because it's just not clear to me yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Reading comprehension matters. He never said it was a similar storm. Thanks for your support ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep. Need it’s dynamics to overcome the meh airmass/high sliding East. Lots stacked against this for the coast. But it’s not impossible. Great post. Yeah, timing of the phase and surface and UL track will be critical. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, timing of the phase and surface and UL track will be critical. Yes! We just witnessed a ULL trend 200 miles north at this time last week for the Saturday rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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